Christopher Holmes

Robbie Holland, Oliver Leingang, Christopher Holmes et al.

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Current grading systems based on imaging biomarkers only coarsely group disease stages into broad categories and are unable to predict future disease progression. It is widely believed that this is due to their focus on a single point in time, disregarding the dynamic nature of the disease. In this work, we present the first method to automatically discover biomarkers that capture temporal dynamics of disease progression. Our method represents patient time series as trajectories in a latent feature space built with contrastive learning. Then, individual trajectories are partitioned into atomic sub-sequences that encode transitions between disease states. These are clustered using a newly introduced distance metric. In quantitative experiments we found our method yields temporal biomarkers that are predictive of conversion to late AMD. Furthermore, these clusters were highly interpretable to ophthalmologists who confirmed that many of the clusters represent dynamics that have previously been linked to the progression of AMD, even though they are currently not included in any clinical grading system.

Robbie Holland, Thomas R. P. Taylor, Christopher Holmes et al.

Clinicians spend a significant amount of time reviewing medical images and transcribing their findings regarding patient diagnosis, referral and treatment in text form. Vision-language models (VLMs), which automatically interpret images and summarize their findings as text, have enormous potential to alleviate clinical workloads and increase patient access to high-quality medical care. While foundational models have stirred considerable interest in the medical community, it is unclear whether their general capabilities translate to real-world clinical utility. In this work, we demonstrate that OpenAI's ChatGPT-4o model, in addition to two foundation VLMs designed for medical use, markedly underperform compared to practicing ophthalmologists on specialist tasks crucial to the care of patients with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). To address this, we initially identified the essential capabilities required for image-based clinical decision-making, and then developed a curriculum to selectively train VLMs in these skills. The resulting model, RetinaVLM, can be instructed to write reports that significantly outperform those written by leading foundation medical VLMs and ChatGPT-4o in disease staging (F1 score of 0.63 vs. 0.33) and patient referral (0.67 vs. 0.50), and approaches the diagnostic performance of junior ophthalmologists (who achieve 0.77 and 0.78 on the respective tasks). Furthermore, in a single-blind reader study two senior ophthalmologists with up to 32 years of experience found RetinaVLM's reports were found to be substantially more accurate than those by ChatGPT-4o (64.3% vs. 14.3%). These results reinforce that our curriculum-based approach provides a blueprint towards specializing foundation medical VLMs for real-world clinical tasks.