Meritxell Riera-Marín

Meritxell Riera-Marín, Javier García López, Júlia Rodríguez-Comas et al.

Objective: Accurate probability estimates are essential for the safe deployment of medical image segmentation models in clinical decision-making. However, modern deep segmentation networks are often poorly calibrated, a problem exacerbated when multiple expert annotations exhibit substantial disagreement. While inter-rater variability is typically treated as noise, it provides valuable information about intrinsic annotation ambiguity that must be reflected in model confidence. Methods: We improve the probabilistic calibration of medical image segmentation models by reformulating multi-rater supervision as an ordinal learning problem. Voxel-wise annotator agreement is treated as an ordered target, linking predictive confidence to the empirical variability in training data. This formulation allows the use of ordinal-aware scoring rules, such as the Ranked Probability Score ordinal loss, combined with a standard binary objective to preserve discriminative performance. Results: We evaluated the proposed approach across four public segmentation benchmarks spanning ophthalmology, histopathology, and thoracic imaging. Calibration was assessed using a multi-rater extension of expected calibration error. Results consistently show that ordinal-aware training yields substantially improved calibration with respect to inter-rater agreement without degrading segmentation accuracy. Conclusions: Treating multi-rater annotations as ordered information provides a principled and architecture-agnostic route to more reliable probabilistic segmentation models.

Sikha O K, Meritxell Riera-Marín, Adrian Galdran et al.

Image segmentation is a critical step in computational biomedical image analysis, typically evaluated using metrics like the Dice coefficient during training and validation. However, in clinical settings without manual annotations, assessing segmentation quality becomes challenging, and models lacking reliability indicators face adoption barriers. To address this gap, we propose a novel framework for predicting segmentation quality without requiring ground truth annotations during test time. Our approach introduces two complementary frameworks: one leveraging predicted segmentation and uncertainty maps, and another integrating the original input image, uncertainty maps, and predicted segmentation maps. We present Bayesian adaptations of two benchmark segmentation models-SwinUNet and Feature Pyramid Network with ResNet50-using Monte Carlo Dropout, Ensemble, and Test Time Augmentation to quantify uncertainty. We evaluate four uncertainty estimates: confidence map, entropy, mutual information, and expected pairwise Kullback-Leibler divergence on 2D skin lesion and 3D liver segmentation datasets, analyzing their correlation with segmentation quality metrics. Our framework achieves an R2 score of 93.25 and Pearson correlation of 96.58 on the HAM10000 dataset, outperforming previous segmentation quality assessment methods. For 3D liver segmentation, Test Time Augmentation with entropy achieves an R2 score of 85.03 and a Pearson correlation of 65.02, demonstrating cross-modality robustness. Additionally, we propose an aggregation strategy that combines multiple uncertainty estimates into a single score per image, offering a more robust and comprehensive assessment of segmentation quality. Finally, we use Grad-CAM and UMAP-based embedding analysis to interpret the model's behavior and reliability, highlighting the impact of uncertainty integration.