Lorin Crawford

Hammaad Adam, Fan Yin, Huibin et al.

Randomized experiments often need to be stopped prematurely due to the treatment having an unintended harmful effect. Existing methods that determine when to stop an experiment early are typically applied to the data in aggregate and do not account for treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we study the early stopping of experiments for harm on heterogeneous populations. We first establish that current methods often fail to stop experiments when the treatment harms a minority group of participants. We then use causal machine learning to develop CLASH, the first broadly-applicable method for heterogeneous early stopping. We demonstrate CLASH's performance on simulated and real data and show that it yields effective early stopping for both clinical trials and A/B tests.

Emre Hayir, Lorin Crawford, Alex X. Lu

Microscopy images contain rich information about how cells respond to perturbations, making them essential to applications like drug screening. To quantify images, researchers often use representation extraction methods, and recent years have seen a proliferation of deep learning methods. While measuring the quality of these representations is essential, evaluation remains fragmented, with each proposed model evaluated on different tasks and datasets, using custom pipelines and metrics, making it difficult to fairly compare models. Here, we introduce MorphoHELM, a comprehensive open benchmark for evaluating feature extraction methods for Cell Painting, the most widely-used morphological profiling assay. MorphoHELM consolidates evaluation standards in the field, extends and corrects them to be more robust, and evaluates on the widest range of methods to date. A defining feature of the benchmark is that each task is evaluated at different degrees of batch effects (or technical noise), directly quantifying how the ability of methods to detect biological signal degrades as noise increases. Together, these properties enable MorphoHELM to detect trade-offs between methods, and we demonstrate that models that excel at certain kinds of biological signal are weaker at others. We show that no existing model outperforms classic computer vision analytic strategies across all settings, which remain the strongest general use-case representations. All datasets, code, and evaluation tools are publicly available at https://github.com/microsoft/MorphoHELM.

Rushin H. Gindra, Giovanni Palla, Mathias Nguyen et al.

Spatial transcriptomics enables simultaneous measurement of gene expression and tissue morphology, offering unprecedented insights into cellular organization and disease mechanisms. However, the field lacks comprehensive benchmarks for evaluating multimodal learning methods that leverage both histology images and gene expression data. Here, we present HESCAPE, a large-scale benchmark for cross-modal contrastive pretraining in spatial transcriptomics, built on a curated pan-organ dataset spanning 6 different gene panels and 54 donors. We systematically evaluated state-of-the-art image and gene expression encoders across multiple pretraining strategies and assessed their effectiveness on two downstream tasks: gene mutation classification and gene expression prediction. Our benchmark demonstrates that gene expression encoders are the primary determinant of strong representational alignment, and that gene models pretrained on spatial transcriptomics data outperform both those trained without spatial data and simple baseline approaches. However, downstream task evaluation reveals a striking contradiction: while contrastive pretraining consistently improves gene mutation classification performance, it degrades direct gene expression prediction compared to baseline encoders trained without cross-modal objectives. We identify batch effects as a key factor that interferes with effective cross-modal alignment. Our findings highlight the critical need for batch-robust multimodal learning approaches in spatial transcriptomics. To accelerate progress in this direction, we release HESCAPE, providing standardized datasets, evaluation protocols, and benchmarking tools for the community

Whitney Sloneker, Shalin Patel, Michael Wang et al.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are powerful tools for conducting inference on graph data but are often seen as "black boxes" due to difficulty in extracting meaningful subnetworks driving predictive performance. Many interpretable GNN methods exist, but they cannot quantify uncertainty in edge weights and suffer in predictive accuracy when applied to challenging graph structures. In this work, we proposed BetaExplainer which addresses these issues by using a sparsity-inducing prior to mask unimportant edges during model training. To evaluate our approach, we examine various simulated data sets with diverse real-world characteristics. Not only does this implementation provide a notion of edge importance uncertainty, it also improves upon evaluation metrics for challenging datasets compared to state-of-the art explainer methods.

Wei Cheng, Gregory Darnell, Sohini Ramachandran et al.

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) have experienced recent success as data-generating models by using simple architectures that do not require significant fine-tuning of hyperparameters. However, VAEs are known to suffer from over-regularization which can lead to failure to escape local maxima. This phenomenon, known as posterior collapse, prevents learning a meaningful latent encoding of the data. Recent methods have mitigated this issue by deterministically moment-matching an aggregated posterior distribution to an aggregate prior. However, abandoning a probabilistic framework (and thus relying on point estimates) can both lead to a discontinuous latent space and generate unrealistic samples. Here we present Hierarchical Empirical Bayes Autoencoder (HEBAE), a computationally stable framework for probabilistic generative models. Our key contributions are two-fold. First, we make gains by placing a hierarchical prior over the encoding distribution, enabling us to adaptively balance the trade-off between minimizing the reconstruction loss function and avoiding over-regularization. Second, we show that assuming a general dependency structure between variables in the latent space produces better convergence onto the mean-field assumption for improved posterior inference. Overall, HEBAE is more robust to a wide-range of hyperparameter initializations than an analogous VAE. Using data from MNIST and CelebA, we illustrate the ability of HEBAE to generate higher quality samples based on FID score than existing autoencoder-based approaches.

Jonathan Ish-Horowicz, Dana Udwin, Seth Flaxman et al.

While the success of deep neural networks (DNNs) is well-established across a variety of domains, our ability to explain and interpret these methods is limited. Unlike previously proposed local methods which try to explain particular classification decisions, we focus on global interpretability and ask a universally applicable question: given a trained model, which features are the most important? In the context of neural networks, a feature is rarely important on its own, so our strategy is specifically designed to leverage partial covariance structures and incorporate variable dependence into feature ranking. Our methodological contributions in this paper are two-fold. First, we propose an effect size analogue for DNNs that is appropriate for applications with highly collinear predictors (ubiquitous in computer vision). Second, we extend the recently proposed "RelATive cEntrality" (RATE) measure (Crawford et al., 2019) to the Bayesian deep learning setting. RATE applies an information theoretic criterion to the posterior distribution of effect sizes to assess feature significance. We apply our framework to three broad application areas: computer vision, natural language processing, and social science.

Lorin Crawford, Seth R. Flaxman, Daniel E. Runcie et al.

The central aim in this paper is to address variable selection questions in nonlinear and nonparametric regression. Motivated by statistical genetics, where nonlinear interactions are of particular interest, we introduce a novel and interpretable way to summarize the relative importance of predictor variables. Methodologically, we develop the "RelATive cEntrality" (RATE) measure to prioritize candidate genetic variants that are not just marginally important, but whose associations also stem from significant covarying relationships with other variants in the data. We illustrate RATE through Bayesian Gaussian process regression, but the methodological innovations apply to other "black box" methods. It is known that nonlinear models often exhibit greater predictive accuracy than linear models, particularly for phenotypes generated by complex genetic architectures. With detailed simulations and two real data association mapping studies, we show that applying RATE enables an explanation for this improved performance.

Lorin Crawford, Kris C. Wood, Xiang Zhou et al.

Nonlinear kernel regression models are often used in statistics and machine learning because they are more accurate than linear models. Variable selection for kernel regression models is a challenge partly because, unlike the linear regression setting, there is no clear concept of an effect size for regression coefficients. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that provides an effect size analog of each explanatory variable for Bayesian kernel regression models when the kernel is shift-invariant --- for example, the Gaussian kernel. We use function analytic properties of shift-invariant reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) to define a linear vector space that: (i) captures nonlinear structure, and (ii) can be projected onto the original explanatory variables. The projection onto the original explanatory variables serves as an analog of effect sizes. The specific function analytic property we use is that shift-invariant kernel functions can be approximated via random Fourier bases. Based on the random Fourier expansion we propose a computationally efficient class of Bayesian approximate kernel regression (BAKR) models for both nonlinear regression and binary classification for which one can compute an analog of effect sizes. We illustrate the utility of BAKR by examining two important problems in statistical genetics: genomic selection (i.e. phenotypic prediction) and association mapping (i.e. inference of significant variants or loci). State-of-the-art methods for genomic selection and association mapping are based on kernel regression and linear models, respectively. BAKR is the first method that is competitive in both settings.