Manel Martínez-Ramón

Vanessa Gómez-Verdejo, Emilio Parrado-Hernández, Manel Martínez-Ramón

Adaptive learning is necessary for non-stationary environments where the learning machine needs to forget past data distribution. Efficient algorithms require a compact model update to not grow in computational burden with the incoming data and with the lowest possible computational cost for online parameter updating. Existing solutions only partially cover these needs. Here, we propose the first adaptive sparse Gaussian Process (GP) able to address all these issues. We first reformulate a variational sparse GP algorithm to make it adaptive through a forgetting factor. Next, to make the model inference as simple as possible, we propose updating a single inducing point of the sparse GP model together with the remaining model parameters every time a new sample arrives. As a result, the algorithm presents a fast convergence of the inference process, which allows an efficient model update (with a single inference iteration) even in highly non-stationary environments. Experimental results demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed algorithm and its good performance in modeling the predictive posterior in mean and confidence interval estimation compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

Guillermo Terrén-Serrano, Manel Martínez-Ramón

The uncertainty of the energy generated by photovoltaic systems incurs an additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This investigation aims to decrease the additional cost by introducing probabilistic multi-task intra-hour solar forecasting (feasible in real time applications) to increase the penetration of photovoltaic systems in power grids. The direction of moving clouds is estimated in consecutive sequences of sky images by extracting features of cloud dynamics with the objective of forecasting the global solar irradiance that reaches photovoltaic systems. The sky images are acquired using a low-cost infrared sky imager mounted on a solar tracker. The solar forecasting algorithm is based on kernel learning methods, and uses the clear sky index as predictor and features extracted from clouds as feature vectors. The proposed solar forecasting algorithm achieved 16.45\% forecasting skill 8 minutes ahead with a resolution of 15 seconds. In contrast, previous work reached 15.4\% forecasting skill with the resolution of 1 minute. Therefore, this solar forecasting algorithm increases the performances with respect to the state-of-the-art, providing grid operators with the capability of managing the inherent uncertainties of power grids with a high penetration of photovoltaic systems.

Rahul Jaiswal, Manel Martínez-Ramón, Tito Busani

This work investigates application of different machine learning based prediction methodologies to estimate the performance of silicon based textured cells. Concept of confidence bound regions is introduced and advantages of this concept are discussed in detail. Results show that reflection profiles and depth dependent optical generation profiles can be accurately estimated using Gaussian processes with exact knowledge of uncertainty in the prediction values.It is also shown that cell design parameters can be estimated for a desired performance metric.

Manish Bhattarai, Aura Rose Jensen-Curtis, Manel MartíNez-Ramón

Firefighting is a dynamic activity, in which numerous operations occur simultaneously. Maintaining situational awareness (i.e., knowledge of current conditions and activities at the scene) is critical to the accurate decision-making necessary for the safe and successful navigation of a fire environment by firefighters. Conversely, the disorientation caused by hazards such as smoke and extreme heat can lead to injury or even fatality. This research implements recent advancements in technology such as deep learning, point cloud and thermal imaging, and augmented reality platforms to improve a firefighter's situational awareness and scene navigation through improved interpretation of that scene. We have designed and built a prototype embedded system that can leverage data streamed from cameras built into a firefighter's personal protective equipment (PPE) to capture thermal, RGB color, and depth imagery and then deploy already developed deep learning models to analyze the input data in real time. The embedded system analyzes and returns the processed images via wireless streaming, where they can be viewed remotely and relayed back to the firefighter using an augmented reality platform that visualizes the results of the analyzed inputs and draws the firefighter's attention to objects of interest, such as doors and windows otherwise invisible through smoke and flames.

Óscar García-Hinde, Vanessa Gómez-Verdejo, Manel Martínez-Ramón

Multitask Gaussian processes (MTGP) are the Gaussian process (GP) framework's solution for multioutput regression problems in which the $T$ elements of the regressors cannot be considered conditionally independent given the observations. Standard MTGP models assume that there exist both a multitask covariance matrix as a function of an intertask matrix, and a noise covariance matrix. These matrices need to be approximated by a low rank simplification of order $P$ in order to reduce the number of parameters to be learnt from $T^2$ to $TP$. Here we introduce a novel approach that simplifies the multitask learning by reducing it to a set of conditioned univariate GPs without the need for any low rank approximations, therefore completely eliminating the requirement to select an adequate value for hyperparameter $P$. At the same time, by extending this approach with both a hierarchical and an approximate model, the proposed extensions are capable of recovering the multitask covariance and noise matrices after learning only $2T$ parameters, avoiding the validation of any model hyperparameter and reducing the overall complexity of the model as well as the risk of overfitting. Experimental results over synthetic and real problems confirm the advantages of this inference approach in its ability to accurately recover the original noise and signal matrices, as well as the achieved performance improvement in comparison to other state of art MTGP approaches. We have also integrated the model with standard GP toolboxes, showing that it is computationally competitive with state of the art options.

Meenu Ajith, Aswathy Rajendra Kurup, Manel Martínez-Ramón

The recent advances in deep learning indicate significant progress in the field of single image super-resolution. With the advent of these techniques, high-resolution image with high peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR) and excellent perceptual quality can be reconstructed. The major challenges associated with existing deep convolutional neural networks are their computational complexity and time; the increasing depth of the networks, often result in high space complexity. To alleviate these issues, we developed an innovative shallow residual feature representative network (SRFRN) that uses a bicubic interpolated low-resolution image as input and residual representative units (RFR) which include serially stacked residual non-linear convolutions. Furthermore, the reconstruction of the high-resolution image is done by combining the output of the RFR units and the residual output from the bicubic interpolated LR image. Finally, multiple experiments have been performed on the benchmark datasets and the proposed model illustrates superior performance for higher scales. Besides, this model also exhibits faster execution time compared to all the existing approaches.

Akitoshi Masuda, Yoshihiko Susuki, Manel Martínez-Ramón et al.

Koopman Mode Decomposition (KMD) is a technique of nonlinear time-series analysis that originates from point spectrum of the Koopman operator defined for an underlying nonlinear dynamical system. We present a numerical algorithm of KMD based on Gaussian process regression that is capable of handling noisy finite-time data. The algorithm is applied to short-term swing dynamics of a multi-machine power grid in order to estimate oscillatory modes embedded in the dynamics, and thereby the effectiveness of the algorithm is evaluated.

Manish Bhattarai, Manel Martínez-Ramón

Intelligent detection and processing capabilities can be instrumental to improving the safety, efficiency, and successful completion of rescue missions conducted by firefighters in emergency first response settings. The objective of this research is to create an automated system that is capable of real-time, intelligent object detection and recognition and facilitates the improved situational awareness of firefighters during an emergency response. We have explored state of the art machine/deep learning techniques to achieve this objective. The goal for this work is to enhance the situational awareness of firefighters by effectively exploiting the information gathered from infrared cameras carried by firefighters. To accomplish this, we use a trained deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) system to classify and identify objects of interest from thermal imagery in real time. In the midst of those critical circumstances created by structure fire, this system is able to accurately inform the decision making process of firefighters with real-time up-to-date scene information by extracting, processing, and analyzing crucial information. With the new information produced by the framework, firefighters are able to make more informed inferences about the circumstances for their safe navigation through such hazardous and potentially catastrophic environments.

Meenu Ajith, Manel Martínez-Ramón

This paper proposes a vision-based fire and smoke segmentation system which use spatial, temporal and motion information to extract the desired regions from the video frames. The fusion of information is done using multiple features such as optical flow, divergence and intensity values. These features extracted from the images are used to segment the pixels into different classes in an unsupervised way. A comparative analysis is done by using multiple clustering algorithms for segmentation. Here the Markov Random Field performs more accurately than other segmentation algorithms since it characterizes the spatial interactions of pixels using a finite number of parameters. It builds a probabilistic image model that selects the most likely labeling using the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. This unsupervised approach is tested on various images and achieves a frame-wise fire detection rate of 95.39%. Hence this method can be used for early detection of fire in real-time and it can be incorporated into an indoor or outdoor surveillance system.

Nestor Pereira, Miguel Angel Hombrados Herrera, Vanesssa Gómez-Verdejo et al.

Power load forecast with Machine Learning is a fairly mature application of artificial intelligence and it is indispensable in operation, control and planning. Data selection techniqies have been hardly used in this application. However, the use of such techniques could be beneficial provided the assumption that the data is identically distributed is clearly not true in load forecasting, but it is cyclostationary. In this work we present a fully automatic methodology to determine what are the most adequate data to train a predictor which is based on a full Bayesian probabilistic model. We assess the performance of the method with experiments based on real publicly available data recorded from several years in the United States of America.

José Luis Rojo-Álvarez, Manel Martínez-Ramón, Jordi Muñoz-Marí et al.

This paper presents a unified framework to tackle estimation problems in Digital Signal Processing (DSP) using Support Vector Machines (SVMs). The use of SVMs in estimation problems has been traditionally limited to its mere use as a black-box model. Noting such limitations in the literature, we take advantage of several properties of Mercer's kernels and functional analysis to develop a family of SVM methods for estimation in DSP. Three types of signal model equations are analyzed. First, when a specific time-signal structure is assumed to model the underlying system that generated the data, the linear signal model (so called Primal Signal Model formulation) is first stated and analyzed. Then, non-linear versions of the signal structure can be readily developed by following two different approaches. On the one hand, the signal model equation is written in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) using the well-known RKHS Signal Model formulation, and Mercer's kernels are readily used in SVM non-linear algorithms. On the other hand, in the alternative and not so common Dual Signal Model formulation, a signal expansion is made by using an auxiliary signal model equation given by a non-linear regression of each time instant in the observed time series. These building blocks can be used to generate different novel SVM-based methods for problems of signal estimation, and we deal with several of the most important ones in DSP. We illustrate the usefulness of this methodology by defining SVM algorithms for linear and non-linear system identification, spectral analysis, nonuniform interpolation, sparse deconvolution, and array processing. The performance of the developed SVM methods is compared to standard approaches in all these settings. The experimental results illustrate the generality, simplicity, and capabilities of the proposed SVM framework for DSP.