Morteza Ibrahimi

Ian Osband, Zheng Wen, Seyed Mohammad Asghari et al. · stanford

Thompson sampling (TS) is a popular heuristic for action selection, but it requires sampling from a posterior distribution. Unfortunately, this can become computationally intractable in complex environments, such as those modeled using neural networks. Approximate posterior samples can produce effective actions, but only if they reasonably approximate joint predictive distributions of outputs across inputs. Notably, accuracy of marginal predictive distributions does not suffice. Epistemic neural networks (ENNs) are designed to produce accurate joint predictive distributions. We compare a range of ENNs through computational experiments that assess their performance in approximating TS across bandit and reinforcement learning environments. The results indicate that ENNs serve this purpose well and illustrate how the quality of joint predictive distributions drives performance. Further, we demonstrate that the \textit{epinet} -- a small additive network that estimates uncertainty -- matches the performance of large ensembles at orders of magnitude lower computational cost. This enables effective application of TS with computation that scales gracefully to complex environments.

Ian Osband, Zheng Wen, Seyed Mohammad Asghari et al.

Predictive distributions quantify uncertainties ignored by point estimates. This paper introduces The Neural Testbed: an open-source benchmark for controlled and principled evaluation of agents that generate such predictions. Crucially, the testbed assesses agents not only on the quality of their marginal predictions per input, but also on their joint predictions across many inputs. We evaluate a range of agents using a simple neural network data generating process. Our results indicate that some popular Bayesian deep learning agents do not fare well with joint predictions, even when they can produce accurate marginal predictions. We also show that the quality of joint predictions drives performance in downstream decision tasks. We find these results are robust across choice a wide range of generative models, and highlight the practical importance of joint predictions to the community.

Zheng Wen, Ian Osband, Chao Qin et al.

A fundamental challenge for any intelligent system is prediction: given some inputs, can you predict corresponding outcomes? Most work on supervised learning has focused on producing accurate marginal predictions for each input. However, we show that for a broad class of decision problems, accurate joint predictions are required to deliver good performance. In particular, we establish several results pertaining to combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits to elucidate the essential role of joint predictive distributions. Our treatment of multi-armed bandits introduces an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and analytic techniques that lead to a new kind of regret bound.

Ian Osband, Zheng Wen, Seyed Mohammad Asghari et al.

Intelligence relies on an agent's knowledge of what it does not know. This capability can be assessed based on the quality of joint predictions of labels across multiple inputs. In principle, ensemble-based approaches produce effective joint predictions, but the computational costs of training large ensembles can become prohibitive. We introduce the epinet: an architecture that can supplement any conventional neural network, including large pretrained models, and can be trained with modest incremental computation to estimate uncertainty. With an epinet, conventional neural networks outperform very large ensembles, consisting of hundreds or more particles, with orders of magnitude less computation. The epinet does not fit the traditional framework of Bayesian neural networks. To accommodate development of approaches beyond BNNs, such as the epinet, we introduce the epistemic neural network (ENN) as an interface for models that produce joint predictions.

Xiuyuan Lu, Benjamin Van Roy, Vikranth Dwaracherla et al.

Reinforcement learning agents have demonstrated remarkable achievements in simulated environments. Data efficiency poses an impediment to carrying this success over to real environments. The design of data-efficient agents calls for a deeper understanding of information acquisition and representation. We discuss concepts and regret analysis that together offer principled guidance. This line of thinking sheds light on questions of what information to seek, how to seek that information, and what information to retain. To illustrate concepts, we design simple agents that build on them and present computational results that highlight data efficiency.

Vikranth Dwaracherla, Xiuyuan Lu, Morteza Ibrahimi et al.

We study the use of hypermodels to represent epistemic uncertainty and guide exploration. This generalizes and extends the use of ensembles to approximate Thompson sampling. The computational cost of training an ensemble grows with its size, and as such, prior work has typically been limited to ensembles with tens of elements. We show that alternative hypermodels can enjoy dramatic efficiency gains, enabling behavior that would otherwise require hundreds or thousands of elements, and even succeed in situations where ensemble methods fail to learn regardless of size. This allows more accurate approximation of Thompson sampling as well as use of more sophisticated exploration schemes. In particular, we consider an approximate form of information-directed sampling and demonstrate performance gains relative to Thompson sampling. As alternatives to ensembles, we consider linear and neural network hypermodels, also known as hypernetworks. We prove that, with neural network base models, a linear hypermodel can represent essentially any distribution over functions, and as such, hypernetworks are no more expressive.

Jose Bento, Morteza Ibrahimi

Consider the problem of learning the drift coefficient of a $p$-dimensional stochastic differential equation from a sample path of length $T$. We assume that the drift is parametrized by a high-dimensional vector, and study the support recovery problem when both $p$ and $T$ can tend to infinity. In particular, we prove a general lower bound on the sample-complexity $T$ by using a characterization of mutual information as a time integral of conditional variance, due to Kadota, Zakai, and Ziv. For linear stochastic differential equations, the drift coefficient is parametrized by a $p\times p$ matrix which describes which degrees of freedom interact under the dynamics. In this case, we analyze a $\ell_1$-regularized least squares estimator and prove an upper bound on $T$ that nearly matches the lower bound on specific classes of sparse matrices.

Morteza Ibrahimi, Adel Javanmard, Benjamin Van Roy

We study the problem of adaptive control of a high dimensional linear quadratic (LQ) system. Previous work established the asymptotic convergence to an optimal controller for various adaptive control schemes. More recently, for the average cost LQ problem, a regret bound of ${O}(\sqrt{T})$ was shown, apart form logarithmic factors. However, this bound scales exponentially with $p$, the dimension of the state space. In this work we consider the case where the matrices describing the dynamic of the LQ system are sparse and their dimensions are large. We present an adaptive control scheme that achieves a regret bound of ${O}(p \sqrt{T})$, apart from logarithmic factors. In particular, our algorithm has an average cost of $(1+\eps)$ times the optimum cost after $T = \polylog(p) O(1/\eps^2)$. This is in comparison to previous work on the dense dynamics where the algorithm requires time that scales exponentially with dimension in order to achieve regret of $\eps$ times the optimal cost. We believe that our result has prominent applications in the emerging area of computational advertising, in particular targeted online advertising and advertising in social networks.