Pierre Pudlo

Changye Wu, Pierre Pudlo, Christian P. Robert et al.

We introduce a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) methodology based on a randomized selection of integration times, referred to as eHMC, where "e" stands for empirical. The approach relies on an offline calibration phase that leverages importance sampling to construct an empirical distribution on discretization parameters, thereby eliminating the need for manual burn-in diagnostics and online adaptation. The proposal distribution used in the calibration stage is obtained via a Population Monte Carlo scheme combined with tempering and flexible parametric variational families such as normalizing flows. The resulting algorithm defines a mixture of HMC kernels with a fixed mixing distribution, preserving the target distribution. Numerical experiments on benchmarks demonstrate that eHMC achieves competitive or improved efficiency compared to the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) when accounting for computational cost. These results suggest that offline calibration combined with randomized integration schemes provides a viable alternative to adaptive HMC methods.

Guillem Bonafos, Pierre Pudlo, Jean-Marc Freyermuth et al.

We propose an automatic data processing pipeline to extract vocal productions from large-scale natural audio recordings and classify these vocal productions. The pipeline is based on a deep neural network and adresses both issues simultaneously. Though a series of computationel steps (windowing, creation of a noise class, data augmentation, re-sampling, transfer learning, Bayesian optimisation), it automatically trains a neural network without requiring a large sample of labeled data and important computing resources. Our end-to-end methodology can handle noisy recordings made under different recording conditions. We test it on two different natural audio data sets, one from a group of Guinea baboons recorded from a primate research center and one from human babies recorded at home. The pipeline trains a model on 72 and 77 minutes of labeled audio recordings, with an accuracy of 94.58% and 99.76%. It is then used to process 443 and 174 hours of natural continuous recordings and it creates two new databases of 38.8 and 35.2 hours, respectively. We discuss the strengths and limitations of this approach that can be applied to any massive audio recording.

Louis Raynal, Jean-Michel Marin, Pierre Pudlo et al.

This preprint has been reviewed and recommended by Peer Community In Evolutionary Biology (http://dx.doi.org/10.24072/pci.evolbiol.100036). Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has grown into a standard methodology that manages Bayesian inference for models associated with intractable likelihood functions. Most ABC implementations require the preliminary selection of a vector of informative statistics summarizing raw data. Furthermore, in almost all existing implementations, the tolerance level that separates acceptance from rejection of simulated parameter values needs to be calibrated. We propose to conduct likelihood-free Bayesian inferences about parameters with no prior selection of the relevant components of the summary statistics and bypassing the derivation of the associated tolerance level. The approach relies on the random forest methodology of Breiman (2001) applied in a (non parametric) regression setting. We advocate the derivation of a new random forest for each component of the parameter vector of interest. When compared with earlier ABC solutions, this method offers significant gains in terms of robustness to the choice of the summary statistics, does not depend on any type of tolerance level, and is a good trade-off in term of quality of point estimator precision and credible interval estimations for a given computing time. We illustrate the performance of our methodological proposal and compare it with earlier ABC methods on a Normal toy example and a population genetics example dealing with human population evolution. All methods designed here have been incorporated in the R package abcrf (version 1.7) available on CRAN.

Jean-Michel Marin, Pierre Pudlo, Arnaud Estoup et al.

This document is an invited chapter covering the specificities of ABC model choice, intended for the incoming Handbook of ABC by Sisson, Fan, and Beaumont (2017). Beyond exposing the potential pitfalls of ABC based posterior probabilities, the review emphasizes mostly the solution proposed by Pudlo et al. (2016) on the use of random forests for aggregating summary statistics and and for estimating the posterior probability of the most likely model via a secondary random fores.

Pierre Pudlo, Jean-Michel Marin, Arnaud Estoup et al.

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior probabilities may be poorly evaluated by standard ABC techniques. We propose a novel approach based on a machine learning tool named random forests to conduct selection among the highly complex models covered by ABC algorithms. We thus modify the way Bayesian model selection is both understood and operated, in that we rephrase the inferential goal as a classification problem, first predicting the model that best fits the data with random forests and postponing the approximation of the posterior probability of the predicted MAP for a second stage also relying on random forests. Compared with earlier implementations of ABC model choice, the ABC random forest approach offers several potential improvements: (i) it often has a larger discriminative power among the competing models, (ii) it is more robust against the number and choice of statistics summarizing the data, (iii) the computing effort is drastically reduced (with a gain in computation efficiency of at least fifty), and (iv) it includes an approximation of the posterior probability of the selected model. The call to random forests will undoubtedly extend the range of size of datasets and complexity of models that ABC can handle. We illustrate the power of this novel methodology by analyzing controlled experiments as well as genuine population genetics datasets. The proposed methodologies are implemented in the R package abcrf available on the CRAN.