LGFeb 11, 2023
Informing clinical assessment by contextualizing post-hoc explanations of risk prediction models in type-2 diabetesShruthi Chari, Prasant Acharya, Daniel M. Gruen et al. · stanford
Medical experts may use Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems with greater trust if these are supported by contextual explanations that let the practitioner connect system inferences to their context of use. However, their importance in improving model usage and understanding has not been extensively studied. Hence, we consider a comorbidity risk prediction scenario and focus on contexts regarding the patients clinical state, AI predictions about their risk of complications, and algorithmic explanations supporting the predictions. We explore how relevant information for such dimensions can be extracted from Medical guidelines to answer typical questions from clinical practitioners. We identify this as a question answering (QA) task and employ several state-of-the-art LLMs to present contexts around risk prediction model inferences and evaluate their acceptability. Finally, we study the benefits of contextual explanations by building an end-to-end AI pipeline including data cohorting, AI risk modeling, post-hoc model explanations, and prototyped a visual dashboard to present the combined insights from different context dimensions and data sources, while predicting and identifying the drivers of risk of Chronic Kidney Disease - a common type-2 diabetes comorbidity. All of these steps were performed in engagement with medical experts, including a final evaluation of the dashboard results by an expert medical panel. We show that LLMs, in particular BERT and SciBERT, can be readily deployed to extract some relevant explanations to support clinical usage. To understand the value-add of the contextual explanations, the expert panel evaluated these regarding actionable insights in the relevant clinical setting. Overall, our paper is one of the first end-to-end analyses identifying the feasibility and benefits of contextual explanations in a real-world clinical use case.
93.3PRApr 10
A Review of Large Language Models for Stock Price Forecasting from a Hedge-Fund PerspectiveOlivia Zhang, Zhilin Zhang
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in quantitative finance for stock price forecasting. This review synthesizes recent applications of LLMs in this domain, including extracting sentiment from financial news and social media, analyzing financial reports and earnings-call transcripts, tokenizing or symbolizing stock price series, and constructing multi-agent trading systems. Particular attention is paid to practical pitfalls that are often understated in the literature, such as fragility in sentiment analysis, dataset and horizon design, performance evaluation metrics, data leakage, illiquidity premia, and limits of stock price predictability. Organized from a hedge-fund perspective, the review is intended to guide both academic researchers and hedge fund managers in integrating LLMs into real-world trading pipelines and in stress-testing their robustness under realistic market frictions.
5.1LGApr 9
Smartwatch-Based Sitting Time Estimation in Real-World Office SettingsOlivia Zhang, Zhilin Zhang
Sedentary behavior poses a major public health risk, being strongly linked to obesity, cardiovascular disease, and other chronic conditions. Accurately estimating sitting time is therefore critical for monitoring and improving individual health. This work addresses the problem in real-world office settings, where signals from the inertial measurement units (IMU) on a smartwatch were collected from office workers during their daily routines. We propose a method that estimates sitting time from the IMU signals by introducing the use of rotation vector sequences, derived from Euler angles, as a novel representation of movement dynamics. Experiments on a 34-hour dataset demonstrate that exploiting rotation vector sequences improves algorithm performance, highlighting their potential for robust sitting time estimation in natural environments.