Chainarong Amornbunchornvej

Chainarong Amornbunchornvej

An agent must act on the situation before it, learn what it cannot yet represent, and model other agents well enough to coordinate. These faculties are usually realized by separate mechanisms, yet they share a failure mode: the situation can exceed what the agent can currently represent, and the honest response is then a principled refusal that says what was missing. We develop a small cognitive architecture in which these limits arise from a single quantity. An Interpretation-Decision Unit (IDU) interprets a content vector through a family of regimes - local representational frames with private bases - and decides which actions it licenses; a scalar residual of the content against the active regimes' representational scope drives the unit. Low residual with a clean licensing emits an action; otherwise the unit re-interprets, attempts a description-length-justified expansion, or halts with a typed, witnessed terminal. We prove the unit is total and deterministic: for any content and fixed configuration it halts in finitely many bounded-cost steps with a unique terminal witness, so abstention carries its cause by construction. By binding the architecture's open parameters without changing its mechanics, the same residual-against-scope constraint recovers three documented phenomena at three scopes: the typology of not-knowing (typed abstention); a forced misunderstanding between agents, localized to one shared concept and invisible to the agent committing it (bounded empathy); and prerequisite dependence in learning derived from a bounded focus window rather than posited (developmental prerequisites). Each instantiation is worked for a natural and an artificial agent and states a falsifiable prediction, so one constraint can model limits in both human and machine cognition. The account contributes a unification and a notion of accountable abstention, typed and witnessed by construction.

Chainarong Amornbunchornvej, Navaporn Surasvadi, Anon Plangprasopchok et al.

Poverty is one of the fundamental issues that mankind faces. To solve poverty issues, one needs to know how severe the issue is. The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) is a well-known approach that is used to measure a degree of poverty issues in a given area. To compute MPI, it requires information of MPI indicators, which are \textbf{binary variables} collecting by surveys, that represent different aspects of poverty such as lacking of education, health, living conditions, etc. Inferring impacts of MPI indicators on MPI index can be solved by using traditional regression methods. However, it is not obvious that whether solving one MPI indicator might resolve or cause more issues in other MPI indicators and there is no framework dedicating to infer empirical causal relations among MPI indicators. In this work, we propose a framework to infer causal relations on binary variables in poverty surveys. Our approach performed better than baseline methods in simulated datasets that we know ground truth as well as correctly found a causal relation in the Twin births dataset. In Thailand poverty survey dataset, the framework found a causal relation between smoking and alcohol drinking issues. We provide R CRAN package `BiCausality' that can be used in any binary variables beyond the poverty analysis context.

Chainarong Amornbunchornvej

This paper develops a geometric framework for modeling belief, motivation, and influence across cognitively heterogeneous agents. Each agent is represented by a personalized value space, a vector space encoding the internal dimensions through which the agent interprets and evaluates meaning. Beliefs are formalized as structured vectors-abstract beings-whose transmission is mediated by linear interpretation maps. A belief survives communication only if it avoids the null spaces of these maps, yielding a structural criterion for intelligibility, miscommunication, and belief death. Within this framework, I show how belief distortion, motivational drift, counterfactual evaluation, and the limits of mutual understanding arise from purely algebraic constraints. A central result-"the No-Null-Space Leadership Condition"-characterizes leadership as a property of representational reachability rather than persuasion or authority. More broadly, the model explains how abstract beings can propagate, mutate, or disappear as they traverse diverse cognitive geometries. The account unifies insights from conceptual spaces, social epistemology, and AI value alignment by grounding meaning preservation in structural compatibility rather than shared information or rationality. I argue that this cognitive-geometric perspective clarifies the epistemic boundaries of influence in both human and artificial systems, and offers a general foundation for analyzing belief dynamics across heterogeneous agents.

Chainarong Amornbunchornvej

Concept learning becomes possible only when existing representations fail to account for experience. Most models of learning and inference, however, presuppose a fixed representational basis within which belief updating occurs. In this paper, I address a prior question: under what structural conditions can the representational basis itself expand in a principled and selective way? I propose a geometric framework in which conceptual growth is modeled as admissible basis extension evaluated under a Minimum Description Length (MDL) criterion. Experience, whether externally observed or internally simulated, is represented as vectors relative to a current conceptual subspace. Residual components capture systematic representational failure, and candidate conceptual extensions are restricted to low-rank, admissible transformations. I show that any MDL-accepted extension can be chosen so that its novel directions lie entirely within the residual span induced by experience, while extensions orthogonal to this span strictly increase description length and are therefore rejected. This yields a conservative account of imagination and conceptual innovation. Internally generated counterfactual representations contribute to learning only insofar as they expose or amplify structured residual error, and cannot introduce arbitrary novelty. I further distinguish representational counterfactuals--counterfactuals over an agent's conceptual basis--from causal or value-level counterfactuals, and show how MDL provides a normative selection principle governing representational change. Overall, the framework characterizes conceptual development as an error-driven, geometry-constrained process of basis extension, clarifying both the role and the limits of imagination in learning and theory change.

Naaek Chinpattanakarn, Chainarong Amornbunchornvej

Knowing who follows whom and what patterns they are following are crucial steps to understand collective behaviors (e.g. a group of human, a school of fish, or a stock market). Time series is one of resources that can be used to get insight regarding following relations. However, the concept of following patterns or motifs and the solution to find them in time series are not obvious. In this work, we formalize a concept of following motifs between two time series and present a framework to infer following patterns between two time series. The framework utilizes one of efficient and scalable methods to retrieve motifs from time series called the Matrix Profile Method. We compare our proposed framework with several baselines. The framework performs better than baselines in the simulation datasets. In the dataset of sound recording, the framework is able to retrieve the following motifs within a pair of time series that two singers sing following each other. In the cryptocurrency dataset, the framework is capable of capturing the following motifs within a pair of time series from two digital currencies, which implies that the values of one currency follow the values of another currency patterns. Our framework can be utilized in any field of time series to get insight regarding following patterns between time series.

Chakattrai Sookkongwaree, Tattep Lakmuang, Chainarong Amornbunchornvej

Understanding causal relationships in time series is fundamental to many domains, including neuroscience, economics, and behavioral science. Granger causality is one of the well-known techniques for inferring causality in time series. Typically, Granger causality frameworks have a strong fix-lag assumption between cause and effect, which is often unrealistic in complex systems. While recent work on variable-lag Granger causality (VLGC) addresses this limitation by allowing a cause to influence an effect with different time lags at each time point, it fails to account for the fact that causal interactions may vary not only in time delay but also across frequency bands. For example, in brain signals, alpha-band activity may influence another region with a shorter delay than slower delta-band oscillations. In this work, we formalize Multi-Band Variable-Lag Granger Causality (MB-VLGC) and propose a novel framework that generalizes traditional VLGC by explicitly modeling frequency-dependent causal delays. We provide a formal definition of MB-VLGC, demonstrate its theoretical soundness, and propose an efficient inference pipeline. Extensive experiments across multiple domains demonstrate that our framework significantly outperforms existing methods on both synthetic and real-world datasets, confirming its broad applicability to any type of time series data. Code and datasets are publicly available.

Phaphontee Yamchote, Saw Nay Htet Win, Chainarong Amornbunchornvej et al.

Feature interaction is crucial in predictive machine learning models, as it captures the relationships between features that influence model performance. In this work, we focus on pairwise interactions and investigate their importance in constructing feature graphs for Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). We leverage existing GNN models and tools to explore the relationship between feature graph structures and their effectiveness in modeling interactions. Through experiments on synthesized datasets, we uncover that edges between interacting features are important for enabling GNNs to model feature interactions effectively. We also observe that including non-interaction edges can act as noise, degrading model performance. Furthermore, we provide theoretical support for sparse feature graph selection using the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle. We prove that feature graphs retaining only necessary interaction edges yield a more efficient and interpretable representation than complete graphs, aligning with Occam's Razor. Our findings offer both theoretical insights and practical guidelines for designing feature graphs that improve the performance and interpretability of GNN models.

Chainarong Amornbunchornvej, Tanya Y. Berger-Wolf

Leadership and followership are essential parts of collective decision and organization in social animals, including humans. In nature, relationships of leaders and followers are dynamic and vary with context or temporal factors. Understanding dynamics of leadership and followership, such as how leaders and followers change, emerge, or converge, allows scientists to gain more insight into group decision-making and collective behavior in general. However, given only data of individual activities, it is challenging to infer the dynamics of leaders and followers. In this paper, we focus on mining and modeling frequent patterns of leading and following. We formalize new computational problems and propose a framework that can be used to address several questions regarding group movement. We use the leadership inference framework, mFLICA, to infer the time series of leaders and their factions from movement datasets and then propose an approach to mine and model frequent patterns of both leadership and followership dynamics. We evaluate our framework performance by using several simulated datasets, as well as the real-world dataset of baboon movement to demonstrate the applications of our framework. These are novel computational problems and, to the best of our knowledge, there are no existing comparable methods to address them. Thus, we modify and extend an existing leadership inference framework to provide a non-trivial baseline for comparison. Our framework performs better than this baseline in all datasets. Our framework opens the opportunities for scientists to generate testable scientific hypotheses about the dynamics of leadership in movement data.

Chainarong Amornbunchornvej, Elena Zheleva, Tanya Berger-Wolf

Granger causality is a fundamental technique for causal inference in time series data, commonly used in the social and biological sciences. Typical operationalizations of Granger causality make a strong assumption that every time point of the effect time series is influenced by a combination of other time series with a fixed time delay. The assumption of fixed time delay also exists in Transfer Entropy, which is considered to be a non-linear version of Granger causality. However, the assumption of the fixed time delay does not hold in many applications, such as collective behavior, financial markets, and many natural phenomena. To address this issue, we develop Variable-lag Granger causality and Variable-lag Transfer Entropy, generalizations of both Granger causality and Transfer Entropy that relax the assumption of the fixed time delay and allow causes to influence effects with arbitrary time delays. In addition, we propose methods for inferring both variable-lag Granger causality and Transfer Entropy relations. In our approaches, we utilize an optimal warping path of Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to infer variable-lag causal relations. We demonstrate our approaches on an application for studying coordinated collective behavior and other real-world casual-inference datasets and show that our proposed approaches perform better than several existing methods in both simulated and real-world datasets. Our approaches can be applied in any domain of time series analysis. The software of this work is available in the R-CRAN package: VLTimeCausality.

Chainarong Amornbunchornvej, Elena Zheleva, Tanya Y. Berger-Wolf

Granger causality is a fundamental technique for causal inference in time series data, commonly used in the social and biological sciences. Typical operationalizations of Granger causality make a strong assumption that every time point of the effect time series is influenced by a combination of other time series with a fixed time delay. However, the assumption of the fixed time delay does not hold in many applications, such as collective behavior, financial markets, and many natural phenomena. To address this issue, we develop variable-lag Granger causality, a generalization of Granger causality that relaxes the assumption of the fixed time delay and allows causes to influence effects with arbitrary time delays. In addition, we propose a method for inferring variable-lag Granger causality relations. We demonstrate our approach on an application for studying coordinated collective behavior and show that it performs better than several existing methods in both simulated and real-world datasets. Our approach can be applied in any domain of time series analysis.

Chainarong Amornbunchornvej, Navaporn Surasvadi, Anon Plangprasopchok et al.

Given a dataset of careers and incomes, how large a difference of income between any pair of careers would be? Given a dataset of travel time records, how long do we need to spend more when choosing a public transportation mode $A$ instead of $B$ to travel? In this paper, we propose a framework that is able to infer orders of categories as well as magnitudes of difference of real numbers between each pair of categories using Estimation statistics framework. Not only reporting whether an order of categories exists, but our framework also reports the magnitude of difference of each consecutive pairs of categories in the order. In large dataset, our framework is scalable well compared with the existing framework. The proposed framework has been applied to two real-world case studies: 1) ordering careers by incomes based on information of 350,000 households living in Khon Kaen province, Thailand, and 2) ordering sectors by closing prices based on 1060 companies' closing prices of NASDAQ stock markets between years 2000 and 2016. The results of careers ordering show income inequality among different careers. The stock market results illustrate dynamics of sector domination that can change over time. Our approach is able to be applied in any research area that has category-real ordered pairs. Our proposed "Dominant-Distribution Network" provides a novel approach to gain new insight of analyzing category orders. The software of this framework is available for researchers or practitioners within R package: EDOIF.

Chainarong Amornbunchornvej, Tanya Berger-Wolf

How do groups of individuals achieve consensus in movement decisions? Do individuals follow their friends, the one predetermined leader, or whomever just happens to be nearby? To address these questions computationally, we formalize "Coordination Strategy Inference Problem". In this setting, a group of multiple individuals moves in a coordinated manner towards a target path. Each individual uses a specific strategy to follow others (e.g. nearest neighbors, pre-defined leaders, preferred friends). Given a set of time series that includes coordinated movement and a set of candidate strategies as inputs, we provide the first methodology (to the best of our knowledge) to infer whether each individual uses local-agreement-system or dictatorship-like strategy to achieve movement coordination at the group level. We evaluate and demonstrate the performance of the proposed framework by predicting the direction of movement of an individual in a group in both simulated datasets as well as two real-world datasets: a school of fish and a troop of baboons. Moreover, since there is no prior methodology for inferring individual-level strategies, we compare our framework with the state-of-the-art approach for the task of classification of group-level-coordination models. The results show that our approach is highly accurate in inferring the correct strategy in simulated datasets even in complicated mixed strategy settings, which no existing method can infer. In the task of classification of group-level-coordination models, our framework performs better than the state-of-the-art approach in all datasets. Animal data experiments show that fish, as expected, follow their neighbors, while baboons have a preference to follow specific individuals. Our methodology generalizes to arbitrary time series data of real numbers, beyond movement data.

Chainarong Amornbunchornvej, Navaporn Surasvadi, Anon Plangprasopchok et al.

One shirt size cannot fit everybody, while we cannot make a unique shirt that fits perfectly for everyone because of resource limitation. This analogy is true for the policy making. Policy makers cannot establish a single policy to solve all problems for all regions because each region has its own unique issue. In the other extreme, policy makers also cannot create a policy for each small village due to the resource limitation. Would it be better if we can find a set of largest regions such that the population of each region within this set has common issues and we can establish a single policy for them? In this work, we propose a framework using regression analysis and minimum description length (MDL) to find a set of largest areas that have common indicators, which can be used to predict household incomes efficiently. Given a set of household features, and a multi-resolution partition that represents administrative divisions, our framework reports a set C* of largest subdivisions that have a common model for population-income prediction. We formalize a problem of finding C* and propose the algorithm as a solution. We use both simulation datasets as well as a real-world dataset of Thailand's population household information to demonstrate our framework performance and application. The results show that our framework performance is better than the baseline methods. We show the results of our method can be used to find indicators of income prediction for many areas in Thailand. By increasing these indicator values, we expect people in these areas to gain more incomes. Hence, the policy makers can plan to establish the policies by using these indicators in our results as a guideline to solve low-income issues. Our framework can be used to support policy makers to establish policies regarding any other dependent variable beyond incomes in order to combat poverty and other issues.

Chainarong Amornbunchornvej, Ivan Brugere, Ariana Strandburg-Peshkin et al.

Behavior initiation is a form of leadership and is an important aspect of social organization that affects the processes of group formation, dynamics, and decision-making in human societies and other social animal species. In this work, we formalize the "Coordination Initiator Inference Problem" and propose a simple yet powerful framework for extracting periods of coordinated activity and determining individuals who initiated this coordination, based solely on the activity of individuals within a group during those periods. The proposed approach, given arbitrary individual time series, automatically (1) identifies times of coordinated group activity, (2) determines the identities of initiators of those activities, and (3) classifies the likely mechanism by which the group coordination occurred, all of which are novel computational tasks. We demonstrate our framework on both simulated and real-world data: trajectories tracking of animals as well as stock market data. Our method is competitive with existing global leadership inference methods but provides the first approaches for local leadership and coordination mechanism classification. Our results are consistent with ground-truthed biological data and the framework finds many known events in financial data which are not otherwise reflected in the aggregate NASDAQ index. Our method is easily generalizable to any coordinated time-series data from interacting entities.