Claudio Roncoli

Serio Agriesti, Vladimir Kuzmanovski, Jaakko Hollmén et al.

The use of Agent-Based and Activity-Based modeling in transportation is rising due to the capability of addressing complex applications such as disruptive trends (e.g., remote working and automation) or the design and assessment of disaggregated management strategies. Still, the broad adoption of large-scale disaggregate models is not materializing due to the inherently high complexity and computational needs. Activity-based models focused on behavioral theory, for example, may involve hundreds of parameters that need to be calibrated to match the detailed socio-economical characteristics of the population for any case study. This paper tackles this issue by proposing a novel Bayesian Optimization approach incorporating a surrogate model in the form of an improved Random Forest, designed to automate the calibration process of the behavioral parameters. The proposed method is tested on a case study for the city of Tallinn, Estonia, where the model to be calibrated consists of 477 behavioral parameters, using the SimMobility MT software. Satisfactory performance is achieved in the major indicators defined for the calibration process: the error for the overall number of trips is equal to 4% and the average error in the OD matrix is 15.92 vehicles per day.

Muhammad Haris, Claudio Roncoli

This paper introduces a novel control strategy to optimize urban network traffic in mixed autonomy settings, featuring Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) alongside Human-Driven Vehicles (HDVs). Unlike previous control strategies, where the impact of driver behaviour of CAVs and HDVs is not explicitly considered, we propose a dynamic, queue-responsive saturation rate to account for autonomy-driven variations in traffic flow characteristics. The proposed method is based on an extended multi-commodity store-and-forward model to a mixed autonomy environment, integrating optimized routing for CAVs via infrastructure-linked connectivity, and signal timings at every signalized intersection. The problem is formulated as a Non-Convex Quadratic Program (NQP), which accounts for queue evolution, spillback, green time allocation, and CAVs routing. To enable computational efficiency for real-time applications, we transform the NQP into a sequence of convex subproblems, leveraging under- and over-estimators to reformulate it as a Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP). Experimental results via microscopic simulations validate the efficiency and robustness of the proposed methodology. The results reflect that the proposed model outperforms the existing multi-commodity approach, thus demonstrating its potential for real-time traffic optimization in future urban mobility systems.

Claudio Roncoli, Nikolaos Bekiaris-Liberis, Markos Papageorgiou

This paper presents two case studies where a macroscopic model-based approach for traffic state estimation, which we have recently developed, is employed and tested. The estimation methodology is developed for a "mixed" traffic scenario, where traffic is composed of both ordinary and connected vehicles. Only average speed measurements, which may be obtained from connected vehicles reports, and a minimum number (sufficient to guarantee observability) of spot sensor-based total flow measurements are utilised. In the first case study, we use NGSIM microscopic data in order to test the capability of estimating the traffic state on the basis of aggregated information retrieved from moving vehicles and considering various penetration rates of connected vehicles. In the second case study, a longer highway stretch with internal congestion is utilised, in order to test the capability of the proposed estimation scheme to produce appropriate estimates for varying traffic conditions on long stretches. In both cases the performances are satisfactory, and the obtained results demonstrate the effectiveness of the methodology, both in qualitative and quantitative terms.