David C. Krakauer

Melanie Mitchell, David C. Krakauer

We survey a current, heated debate in the AI research community on whether large pre-trained language models can be said to "understand" language -- and the physical and social situations language encodes -- in any important sense. We describe arguments that have been made for and against such understanding, and key questions for the broader sciences of intelligence that have arisen in light of these arguments. We contend that a new science of intelligence can be developed that will provide insight into distinct modes of understanding, their strengths and limitations, and the challenge of integrating diverse forms of cognition.

David C. Krakauer

In the psychological literature the term `general intelligence' describes correlations between abilities and not simply the number of abilities. This paper connects Spearman's $g$-factor from psychometrics, measuring a positive manifold, to the implicit ``$G$-factor'' in claims about artificial general intelligence (AGI) performance on temporally structured benchmarks. By treating LLM benchmark batteries as cognitive test batteries and model releases as subjects, principal component analysis is applied to a models $\times$ benchmarks $\times$ time matrix spanning 39 models (2019--2025) and 14 benchmarks. Preliminary results confirm a strong positive manifold in which all 28 pairwise correlations positive across 8 benchmarks. By analyzing the spectrum of the benchmark correlation through time, PC1 explains 90\% of variance on a 5-benchmark core battery ($n=19$)) reducing to 77\% by 2024. On a four benchmark battery, PC1 is found to peak at 92\% of the variance between 2023--2024 and reduce to 64\% with the arrival of reasoning-specialized models in 2024. This is coincident with a rotation in the G-factor as models outsource `reasoning' to tools. The analysis of partial correlation matrices through time provides evidence for the evolution of specialization beneath the positive manifold of general intelligence (AI-hedgehog) encompassing diverse high dimensional problem solving systems (AI-foxes). In strictly psychometric terms, AI models exhibit general intelligence suppressing specialized intelligences. LLMs invert the ideal of substituting complicated models with parsimonious mechanisms, a `Ptolemaic Succession' of theories, with architectures of increasing hierarchical complication and capability.

David C. Krakauer, John W. Krakauer, Melanie Mitchell

Emergence is a concept in complexity science that describes how many-body systems manifest novel higher-level properties, properties that can be described by replacing high-dimensional mechanisms with lower-dimensional effective variables and theories. This is captured by the idea "more is different". Intelligence is a consummate emergent property manifesting increasingly efficient -- cheaper and faster -- uses of emergent capabilities to solve problems. This is captured by the idea "less is more". In this paper, we first examine claims that Large Language Models exhibit emergent capabilities, reviewing several approaches to quantifying emergence, and secondly ask whether LLMs possess emergent intelligence.

Gülce Kardeş, David Krakauer, Joshua Grochow

Cognitive science and theoretical computer science both seek to classify and explain the difficulty of tasks. Mechanisms of intelligence are those that reduce task difficulty. Here we map concepts from the computational complexity of a physical puzzle, the Soma Cube, onto cognitive problem-solving strategies through a ``Principle of Materiality''. By analyzing the puzzle's branching factor, measured through search tree outdegree, we quantitatively assess task difficulty and systematically examine how different strategies modify complexity. We incrementally refine a trial-and-error search by layering preprocessing (cognitive chunking), value ordering (cognitive free-sorting), variable ordering (cognitive scaffolding), and pruning (cognitive inference). We discuss how the competent use of artifacts reduces effective time complexity by exploiting physical constraints and propose a model of intelligence as a library of algorithms that recruit the capabilities of both mind and matter.

Alexander Lavin, David Krakauer, Hector Zenil et al.

The original "Seven Motifs" set forth a roadmap of essential methods for the field of scientific computing, where a motif is an algorithmic method that captures a pattern of computation and data movement. We present the "Nine Motifs of Simulation Intelligence", a roadmap for the development and integration of the essential algorithms necessary for a merger of scientific computing, scientific simulation, and artificial intelligence. We call this merger simulation intelligence (SI), for short. We argue the motifs of simulation intelligence are interconnected and interdependent, much like the components within the layers of an operating system. Using this metaphor, we explore the nature of each layer of the simulation intelligence operating system stack (SI-stack) and the motifs therein: (1) Multi-physics and multi-scale modeling; (2) Surrogate modeling and emulation; (3) Simulation-based inference; (4) Causal modeling and inference; (5) Agent-based modeling; (6) Probabilistic programming; (7) Differentiable programming; (8) Open-ended optimization; (9) Machine programming. We believe coordinated efforts between motifs offers immense opportunity to accelerate scientific discovery, from solving inverse problems in synthetic biology and climate science, to directing nuclear energy experiments and predicting emergent behavior in socioeconomic settings. We elaborate on each layer of the SI-stack, detailing the state-of-art methods, presenting examples to highlight challenges and opportunities, and advocating for specific ways to advance the motifs and the synergies from their combinations. Advancing and integrating these technologies can enable a robust and efficient hypothesis-simulation-analysis type of scientific method, which we introduce with several use-cases for human-machine teaming and automated science.

Daniel N. Rockmore, Chen Fang, Nicholas J. Foti et al.

We explore how ideas from infectious disease and genetics can be used to uncover patterns of cultural inheritance and innovation in a corpus of 591 national constitutions spanning 1789 - 2008. Legal "Ideas" are encoded as "topics" - words statistically linked in documents - derived from topic modeling the corpus of constitutions. Using these topics we derive a diffusion network for borrowing from ancestral constitutions back to the US Constitution of 1789 and reveal that constitutions are complex cultural recombinants. We find systematic variation in patterns of borrowing from ancestral texts and "biological"-like behavior in patterns of inheritance with the distribution of "offspring" arising through a bounded preferential-attachment process. This process leads to a small number of highly innovative (influential) constitutions some of which have yet to have been identified as so in the current literature. Our findings thus shed new light on the critical nodes of the constitution-making network. The constitutional network structure reflects periods of intense constitution creation, and systematic patterns of variation in constitutional life-span and temporal influence.