Yusuf Bugra Erol

Yusuf Bugra Erol, Yi Wu, Lei Li et al.

Joint state and parameter estimation is a core problem for dynamic Bayesian networks. Although modern probabilistic inference toolkits make it relatively easy to specify large and practically relevant probabilistic models, the silver bullet---an efficient and general online inference algorithm for such problems---remains elusive, forcing users to write special-purpose code for each application. We propose a novel blackbox algorithm -- a hybrid of particle filtering for state variables and assumed density filtering for parameter variables. It has following advantages: (a) it is efficient due to its online nature, and (b) it is applicable to both discrete and continuous parameter spaces . On a variety of toy and real models, our system is able to generate more accurate results within a fixed computation budget. This preliminary evidence indicates that the proposed approach is likely to be of practical use.

Yusuf Erol, Lei Li, Bharath Ramsundar et al.

The parameters of temporal models, such as dynamic Bayesian networks, may be modelled in a Bayesian context as static or atemporal variables that influence transition probabilities at every time step. Particle filters fail for models that include such variables, while methods that use Gibbs sampling of parameter variables may incur a per-sample cost that grows linearly with the length of the observation sequence. Storvik devised a method for incremental computation of exact sufficient statistics that, for some cases, reduces the per-sample cost to a constant. In this paper, we demonstrate a connection between Storvik's filter and a Kalman filter in parameter space and establish more general conditions under which Storvik's filter works. Drawing on an analogy to the extended Kalman filter, we develop and analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, a Taylor approximation to the parameter posterior that allows Storvik's method to be applied to a broader class of models. Our experiments on both synthetic examples and real applications show improvement over existing methods.