Barry Smyth

Edoardo D'Amico, Khalil Muhammad, Elias Tragos et al.

Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) have been recently employed as core component in the construction of recommender system algorithms, interpreting user-item interactions as the edges of a bipartite graph. However, in the absence of side information, the majority of existing models adopt an approach of randomly initialising the user embeddings and optimising them throughout the training process. This strategy makes these algorithms inherently transductive, curtailing their ability to generate predictions for users that were unseen at training time. To address this issue, we propose a convolution-based algorithm, which is inductive from the user perspective, while at the same time, depending only on implicit user-item interaction data. We propose the construction of an item-item graph through a weighted projection of the bipartite interaction network and to employ convolution to inject higher order associations into item embeddings, while constructing user representations as weighted sums of the items with which they have interacted. Despite not training individual embeddings for each user our approach achieves state of-the-art recommendation performance with respect to transductive baselines on four real-world datasets, showing at the same time robust inductive performance.

Rian Dolphin, Barry Smyth, Ruihai Dong

The financial domain has proven to be a fertile source of challenging machine learning problems across a variety of tasks including prediction, clustering, and classification. Researchers can access an abundance of time-series data and even modest performance improvements can be translated into significant additional value. In this work, we consider the use of case-based reasoning for an important task in this domain, by using historical stock returns time-series data for industry sector classification. We discuss why time-series data can present some significant representational challenges for conventional case-based reasoning approaches, and in response, we propose a novel representation based on stock returns embeddings, which can be readily calculated from raw stock returns data. We argue that this representation is well suited to case-based reasoning and evaluate our approach using a large-scale public dataset for the industry sector classification task, demonstrating substantial performance improvements over several baselines using more conventional representations.

Rian Dolphin, Barry Smyth, Ruihai Dong

Representation learning has emerged as a powerful paradigm for extracting valuable latent features from complex, high-dimensional data. In financial domains, learning informative representations for assets can be used for tasks like sector classification, and risk management. However, the complex and stochastic nature of financial markets poses unique challenges. We propose a novel contrastive learning framework to generate asset embeddings from financial time series data. Our approach leverages the similarity of asset returns over many subwindows to generate informative positive and negative samples, using a statistical sampling strategy based on hypothesis testing to address the noisy nature of financial data. We explore various contrastive loss functions that capture the relationships between assets in different ways to learn a discriminative representation space. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the learned asset embeddings on benchmark industry classification and portfolio optimization tasks. In each case our novel approaches significantly outperform existing baselines highlighting the potential for contrastive learning to capture meaningful and actionable relationships in financial data.

Rian Dolphin, Barry Smyth, Ruihai Dong

Identifying meaningful relationships between the price movements of financial assets is a challenging but important problem in a variety of financial applications. However with recent research, particularly those using machine learning and deep learning techniques, focused mostly on price forecasting, the literature investigating the modelling of asset correlations has lagged somewhat. To address this, inspired by recent successes in natural language processing, we propose a neural model for training stock embeddings, which harnesses the dynamics of historical returns data in order to learn the nuanced relationships that exist between financial assets. We describe our approach in detail and discuss a number of ways that it can be used in the financial domain. Furthermore, we present the evaluation results to demonstrate the utility of this approach, compared to several important benchmarks, in two real-world financial analytics tasks.

Linyi Yang, Jiazheng Li, Ruihai Dong et al.

Financial forecasting has been an important and active area of machine learning research because of the challenges it presents and the potential rewards that even minor improvements in prediction accuracy or forecasting may entail. Traditionally, financial forecasting has heavily relied on quantitative indicators and metrics derived from structured financial statements. Earnings conference call data, including text and audio, is an important source of unstructured data that has been used for various prediction tasks using deep earning and related approaches. However, current deep learning-based methods are limited in the way that they deal with numeric data; numbers are typically treated as plain-text tokens without taking advantage of their underlying numeric structure. This paper describes a numeric-oriented hierarchical transformer model to predict stock returns, and financial risk using multi-modal aligned earnings calls data by taking advantage of the different categories of numbers (monetary, temporal, percentages etc.) and their magnitude. We present the results of a comprehensive evaluation of NumHTML against several state-of-the-art baselines using a real-world publicly available dataset. The results indicate that NumHTML significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art across a variety of evaluation metrics and that it has the potential to offer significant financial gains in a practical trading context.

Mansura A Khan, Khalil Muhammad, Barry Smyth et al.

Food-choices and eating-habits directly contribute to our long-term health. This makes the food recommender system a potential tool to address the global crisis of obesity and malnutrition. Over the past decade, artificial-intelligence and medical researchers became more invested in researching tools that can guide and help people make healthy and thoughtful decisions around food and diet. In many typical (Recommender System) RS domains, smart nudges have been proven effective in shaping users' consumption patterns. In recent years, knowledgeable nudging and incentifying choices started getting attention in the food domain as well. To develop smart nudging for promoting healthier food choices, we combined Machine Learning and RS technology with food-healthiness guidelines from recognized health organizations, such as the World Health Organization, Food Standards Agency, and the National Health Service United Kingdom. In this paper, we discuss our research on, persuasive visualization for making users aware of the healthiness of the recommended recipes. Here, we propose three novel nudging technology, the WHO-BubbleSlider, the FSA-ColorCoading, and the DRCI-MLCP, that encourage users to choose healthier recipes. We also propose a Topic Modeling based portion-size recommendation algorithm. To evaluate our proposed smart-nudges, we conducted an online user study with 96 participants and 92250 recipes. Results showed that, during the food decision-making process, appropriate healthiness cues make users more likely to click, browse, and choose healthier recipes over less healthy ones.

Rian Dolphin, Barry Smyth, Yang Xu et al.

Forecasting stock returns is a challenging problem due to the highly stochastic nature of the market and the vast array of factors and events that can influence trading volume and prices. Nevertheless it has proven to be an attractive target for machine learning research because of the potential for even modest levels of prediction accuracy to deliver significant benefits. In this paper, we describe a case-based reasoning approach to predicting stock market returns using only historical pricing data. We argue that one of the impediments for case-based stock prediction has been the lack of a suitable similarity metric when it comes to identifying similar pricing histories as the basis for a future prediction -- traditional Euclidean and correlation based approaches are not effective for a variety of reasons -- and in this regard, a key contribution of this work is the development of a novel similarity metric for comparing historical pricing data. We demonstrate the benefits of this metric and the case-based approach in a real-world application in comparison to a variety of conventional benchmarks.

Linyi Yang, Jiazheng Li, Pádraig Cunningham et al.

While state-of-the-art NLP models have been achieving the excellent performance of a wide range of tasks in recent years, important questions are being raised about their robustness and their underlying sensitivity to systematic biases that may exist in their training and test data. Such issues come to be manifest in performance problems when faced with out-of-distribution data in the field. One recent solution has been to use counterfactually augmented datasets in order to reduce any reliance on spurious patterns that may exist in the original data. Producing high-quality augmented data can be costly and time-consuming as it usually needs to involve human feedback and crowdsourcing efforts. In this work, we propose an alternative by describing and evaluating an approach to automatically generating counterfactual data for data augmentation and explanation. A comprehensive evaluation on several different datasets and using a variety of state-of-the-art benchmarks demonstrate how our approach can achieve significant improvements in model performance when compared to models training on the original data and even when compared to models trained with the benefit of human-generated augmented data.

Linyi Yang, Tin Lok James Ng, Barry Smyth et al.

The explosion in the sheer magnitude and complexity of financial news data in recent years makes it increasingly challenging for investment analysts to extract valuable insights and perform analysis. We propose FactCheck in finance, a web-based news aggregator with deep learning models, to provide analysts with a holistic view of important financial events from multilingual news sources and extract events using an unsupervised clustering method. A web interface is provided to examine the credibility of news articles using a transformer-based fact-checker. The performance of the fact checker is evaluated using a dataset related to merger and acquisition (M\&A) events and is shown to outperform several strong baselines.

Mark T Keane, Eoin M Kenny, Mohammed Temraz et al.

Recently, it has been proposed that fruitful synergies may exist between Deep Learning (DL) and Case Based Reasoning (CBR); that there are insights to be gained by applying CBR ideas to problems in DL (what could be called DeepCBR). In this paper, we report on a program of research that applies CBR solutions to the problem of Explainable AI (XAI) in the DL. We describe a series of twin-systems pairings of opaque DL models with transparent CBR models that allow the latter to explain the former using factual, counterfactual and semi-factual explanation strategies. This twinning shows that functional abstractions of DL (e.g., feature weights, feature importance and decision boundaries) can be used to drive these explanatory solutions. We also raise the prospect that this research also applies to the problem of Data Augmentation in DL, underscoring the fecundity of these DeepCBR ideas.

Mohammed Temraz, Eoin Kenny, Elodie Ruelle et al.

Climate change poses a major challenge to humanity, especially in its impact on agriculture, a challenge that a responsible AI should meet. In this paper, we examine a CBR system (PBI-CBR) designed to aid sustainable dairy farming by supporting grassland management, through accurate crop growth prediction. As climate changes, PBI-CBRs historical cases become less useful in predicting future grass growth. Hence, we extend PBI-CBR using data augmentation, to specifically handle disruptive climate events, using a counterfactual method (from XAI). Study 1 shows that historical, extreme climate-events (climate outlier cases) tend to be used by PBI-CBR to predict grass growth during climate disrupted periods. Study 2 shows that synthetic outliers, generated as counterfactuals on a outlier-boundary, improve the predictive accuracy of PBICBR, during the drought of 2018. This study also shows that an instance-based counterfactual method does better than a benchmark, constraint-guided method.

Mark T Keane, Eoin M Kenny, Eoin Delaney et al.

In recent years, there has been an explosion of AI research on counterfactual explanations as a solution to the problem of eXplainable AI (XAI). These explanations seem to offer technical, psychological and legal benefits over other explanation techniques. We survey 100 distinct counterfactual explanation methods reported in the literature. This survey addresses the extent to which these methods have been adequately evaluated, both psychologically and computationally, and quantifies the shortfalls occurring. For instance, only 21% of these methods have been user tested. Five key deficits in the evaluation of these methods are detailed and a roadmap, with standardised benchmark evaluations, is proposed to resolve the issues arising; issues, that currently effectively block scientific progress in this field.

Barry Smyth, Mark T Keane

Counterfactual explanations provide a potentially significant solution to the Explainable AI (XAI) problem, but good, native counterfactuals have been shown to rarely occur in most datasets. Hence, the most popular methods generate synthetic counterfactuals using blind perturbation. However, such methods have several shortcomings: the resulting counterfactuals (i) may not be valid data-points (they often use features that do not naturally occur), (ii) may lack the sparsity of good counterfactuals (if they modify too many features), and (iii) may lack diversity (if the generated counterfactuals are minimal variants of one another). We describe a method designed to overcome these problems, one that adapts native counterfactuals in the original dataset, to generate sparse, diverse synthetic counterfactuals from naturally occurring features. A series of experiments are reported that systematically explore parametric variations of this novel method on common datasets to establish the conditions for optimal performance.

Linyi Yang, Eoin M. Kenny, Tin Lok James Ng et al.

Corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A) account for billions of dollars of investment globally every year, and offer an interesting and challenging domain for artificial intelligence. However, in these highly sensitive domains, it is crucial to not only have a highly robust and accurate model, but be able to generate useful explanations to garner a user's trust in the automated system. Regrettably, the recent research regarding eXplainable AI (XAI) in financial text classification has received little to no attention, and many current methods for generating textual-based explanations result in highly implausible explanations, which damage a user's trust in the system. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel methodology for producing plausible counterfactual explanations, whilst exploring the regularization benefits of adversarial training on language models in the domain of FinTech. Exhaustive quantitative experiments demonstrate that not only does this approach improve the model accuracy when compared to the current state-of-the-art and human performance, but it also generates counterfactual explanations which are significantly more plausible based on human trials.

Mark T. Keane, Barry Smyth

Recently, a groundswell of research has identified the use of counterfactual explanations as a potentially significant solution to the Explainable AI (XAI) problem. It is argued that (a) technically, these counterfactual cases can be generated by permuting problem-features until a class change is found, (b) psychologically, they are much more causally informative than factual explanations, (c) legally, they are GDPR-compliant. However, there are issues around the finding of good counterfactuals using current techniques (e.g. sparsity and plausibility). We show that many commonly-used datasets appear to have few good counterfactuals for explanation purposes. So, we propose a new case based approach for generating counterfactuals using novel ideas about the counterfactual potential and explanatory coverage of a case-base. The new technique reuses patterns of good counterfactuals, present in a case-base, to generate analogous counterfactuals that can explain new problems and their solutions. Several experiments show how this technique can improve the counterfactual potential and explanatory coverage of case-bases that were previously found wanting.

Mansura A. Khan, Ellen Rushe, Barry Smyth et al.

Food choices are personal and complex and have a significant impact on our long-term health and quality of life. By helping users to make informed and satisfying decisions, Recommender Systems (RS) have the potential to support users in making healthier food choices. Intelligent users-modeling is a key challenge in achieving this potential. This paper investigates Ensemble Topic Modelling (EnsTM) based Feature Identification techniques for efficient user-modeling and recipe recommendation. It builds on findings in EnsTM to propose a reduced data representation format and a smart user-modeling strategy that makes capturing user-preference fast, efficient and interactive. This approach enables personalization, even in a cold-start scenario. This paper proposes two different EnsTM based and one Hybrid EnsTM based recommenders. We compared all three EnsTM based variations through a user study with 48 participants, using a large-scale,real-world corpus of 230,876 recipes, and compare against a conventional Content Based (CB) approach. EnsTM based recommenders performed significantly better than the CB approach. Besides acknowledging multi-domain contents such as taste, demographics and cost, our proposed approach also considers user's nutritional preference and assists them finding recipes under diverse nutritional categories. Furthermore, it provides excellent coverage and enables implicit understanding of user's food practices. Subsequent analysis also exposed correlation between certain features and a healthier lifestyle.

Joeran Beel, Barry Smyth, Andrew Collins

The main contribution of this paper is to introduce and describe a new recommender-systems dataset (RARD II). It is based on data from Mr. DLib, a recommender-system as-a-service in the digital library and reference-management-software domain. As such, RARD II complements datasets from other domains such as books, movies, and music. The dataset encompasses 94m recommendations, delivered in the two years from September 2016 to September 2018. The dataset covers an item-space of 24m unique items. RARD II provides a range of rich recommendation data, beyond conventional ratings. For example, in addition to the usual (implicit) ratings matrices, RARD II includes the original recommendation logs, which provide a unique insight into many aspects of the algorithms that generated the recommendations. The logs enable researchers to conduct various analyses about a real-world recommender system. This includes the evaluation of meta-learning approaches for predicting algorithm performance. In this paper, we summarise the key features of this dataset release, describe how it was generated and discuss some of its unique features. Compared to its predecessor RARD, RARD II contains 64% more recommendations, 187% more features (algorithms, parameters, and statistics), 50% more clicks, 140% more documents, and one additional service partner (JabRef).

Derek Greene, Gavin Sheridan, Barry Smyth et al.

Twitter introduced user lists in late 2009, allowing users to be grouped according to meaningful topics or themes. Lists have since been adopted by media outlets as a means of organising content around news stories. Thus the curation of these lists is important - they should contain the key information gatekeepers and present a balanced perspective on a story. Here we address this list curation process from a recommender systems perspective. We propose a variety of criteria for generating user list recommendations, based on content analysis, network analysis, and the "crowdsourcing" of existing user lists. We demonstrate that these types of criteria are often only successful for datasets with certain characteristics. To resolve this issue, we propose the aggregation of these different "views" of a news story on Twitter to produce more accurate user recommendations to support the curation process.