Meead Saberi

Meead Saberi, Mudabber Ashfaq, Homayoun Hamedmoghadam et al.

The spread of traffic jams in urban networks has long been viewed as a complex spatio-temporal phenomenon that often requires computationally intensive microscopic models for analysis purposes. In this study, we present a framework to describe the dynamics of congestion propagation and dissipation of traffic in cities using a simple contagion process, inspired by those used to model infectious disease spread in a population. We introduce two novel macroscopic characteristics of network traffic, namely congestion propagation rate \b{eta} and congestion dissipation rate μ. We describe the dynamics of congestion propagation and dissipation using these new parameters, \b{eta}, and μ, embedded within a system of ordinary differential equations, analogous to the well-known Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. The proposed contagion-based dynamics are verified through an empirical multi-city analysis, and can be used to monitor, predict and control the fraction of congested links in the network over time.

Ziyuan Gu, Meead Saberi

In this paper, we characterize the effects of turning and merging maneuvers of connected and/or automated vehicles (CAVs or AVs) on network traffic instability using the macroscopic or network fundamental diagram (MFD or NFD). We revisit the two-ring system from a theoretical perspective and develop an integrated modeling framework consisting of different microscopic traffic models of human-driven vehicles (HVs), AVs, and CAVs. Results suggest that network traffic instability due to turning and merging maneuvers is an intrinsic property of road networks. When the turning probability is low, CAVs do not significantly change the NFD bifurcation, but scatter in both the simulated link fundamental diagrams (FDs) and NFDs reduces leading to higher and more stable network flows. When the turning probability is high, non-cooperative AVs worsen network traffic instability - the NFD undergoes bifurcation long before the critical density is reached. Results highlight the important impact of cooperative merging on network traffic stability when AVs are widely deployed in road networks.

Meead Saberi, Tanapon Lilasathapornkit

Walking and cycling are known to bring substantial health, environmental, and economic advantages. However, the development of evidence-based active transportation planning and policies has been impeded by significant data limitations, such as biases in crowdsourced data and representativeness issues of mobile phone data. In this study, we develop and apply a machine learning based modeling approach for estimating daily walking and cycling volumes across a large-scale regional network in New South Wales, Australia that includes 188,999 walking links and 114,885 cycling links. The modeling methodology leverages crowdsourced and mobile phone data as well as a range of other datasets on population, land use, topography, climate, etc. The study discusses the unique challenges and limitations related to all three aspects of model training, testing, and inference given the large geographical extent of the modeled networks and relative scarcity of observed walking and cycling count data. The study also proposes a new technique to identify model estimate outliers and to mitigate their impact. Overall, the study provides a valuable resource for transportation modelers, policymakers and urban planners seeking to enhance active transportation infrastructure planning and policies with advanced emerging data-driven modeling methodologies.

Mohit Gupta, Debjit Bhowmick, Meead Saberi et al.

Accurate bicycling volume estimation is crucial for making informed decisions and planning about future investments in bicycling infrastructure. However, traditional link-level volume estimation models are effective for motorized traffic but face significant challenges when applied to the bicycling context because of sparse data and the intricate nature of bicycling mobility patterns. To the best of our knowledge, we present the first study to utilize a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) architecture to model link-level bicycling volumes and systematically investigate the impact of varying levels of data sparsity (0%--99%) on model performance, simulating real-world scenarios. We have leveraged Strava Metro data as the primary source of bicycling counts across 15,933 road segments/links in the City of Melbourne, Australia. To evaluate the effectiveness of the GCN model, we benchmark it against traditional machine learning models, such as linear regression, support vector machines, and random forest. Our results show that the GCN model outperforms these traditional models in predicting Annual Average Daily Bicycle (AADB) counts, demonstrating its ability to capture the spatial dependencies inherent in bicycle traffic networks. While GCN remains robust up to 80% sparsity, its performance declines sharply beyond this threshold, highlighting the challenges of extreme data sparsity. These findings underscore the potential of GCNs in enhancing bicycling volume estimation, while also emphasizing the need for further research on methods to improve model resilience under high-sparsity conditions. Our findings offer valuable insights for city planners aiming to improve bicycling infrastructure and promote sustainable transportation.

Mohit Gupta, Debjit Bhowmick, Rhys Newbury et al.

Accurate link-level bicycling volume estimation is essential for sustainable urban transportation planning. However, many cities face significant challenges of high data sparsity due to limited bicycling count sensor coverage. To address this issue, we propose INSPIRE-GNN, a novel Reinforcement Learning (RL)-boosted hybrid Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework designed to optimize sensor placement and improve link-level bicycling volume estimation in data-sparse environments. INSPIRE-GNN integrates Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) and Graph Attention Networks (GAT) with a Deep Q-Network (DQN)-based RL agent, enabling a data-driven strategic selection of sensor locations to maximize estimation performance. Applied to Melbourne's bicycling network, comprising 15,933 road segments with sensor coverage on only 141 road segments (99% sparsity) - INSPIRE-GNN demonstrates significant improvements in volume estimation by strategically selecting additional sensor locations in deployments of 50, 100, 200 and 500 sensors. Our framework outperforms traditional heuristic methods for sensor placement such as betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, observed bicycling activity and random placement, across key metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Furthermore, our experiments benchmark INSPIRE-GNN against standard machine learning and deep learning models in the bicycle volume estimation performance, underscoring its effectiveness. Our proposed framework provides transport planners actionable insights to effectively expand sensor networks, optimize sensor placement and maximize volume estimation accuracy and reliability of bicycling data for informed transportation planning decisions.

David Rey, Ahmed W Hammad, Meead Saberi

The optimal allocation of vaccines to population subgroups over time is a challenging health care management problem. In the context of a pandemic, the interaction between vaccination policies adopted by multiple agents and the cooperation (or lack thereof) creates a complex environment that affects the global transmission dynamics of the disease. In this study, we take the perspective of decision-making agents that aim to minimize the size of their susceptible populations and must allocate vaccine under limited supply. We assume that vaccine efficiency rates are unknown to agents and we propose an optimization policy based on Thompson sampling to learn mean vaccine efficiency rates over time. Furthermore, we develop a budget-balanced resource sharing mechanism to promote cooperation among agents. We apply the proposed framework to the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a raster model of the world where agents represent the main countries worldwide and interact in a global mobility network to generate multiple problem instances. Our numerical results show that the proposed vaccine allocation policy achieves a larger reduction in the number of susceptible individuals, infections and deaths globally compared to a population-based policy. In addition, we show that, under a fixed global vaccine allocation budget, most countries can reduce their national number of infections and deaths by sharing their budget with countries with which they have a relatively high mobility exchange. The proposed framework can be used to improve policy-making in health care management by national and global health authorities.

Ziyuan Gu, S. Travis Waller, Meead Saberi

Toll optimization in a large-scale dynamic traffic network is typically characterized by an expensive-to-evaluate objective function. In this paper, we propose two toll level problems (TLPs) integrated with a large-scale simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model of Melbourne, Australia. The first TLP aims to control the pricing zone (PZ) through a time-varying joint distance and delay toll (JDDT) such that the network fundamental diagram (NFD) of the PZ does not enter the congested regime. The second TLP is built upon the first TLP by further considering the minimization of the heterogeneity of congestion distribution in the PZ. To solve the two TLPs, a computationally efficient surrogate-based optimization method, i.e., regressing kriging (RK) with expected improvement (EI) sampling, is applied to approximate the simulation input-output mapping, which can balance well between local exploitation and global exploration. Results show that the two optimal TLP solutions reduce the average travel time in the PZ (entire network) by 29.5% (1.4%) and 21.6% (2.5%), respectively. Reducing the heterogeneity of congestion distribution achieves higher network flows in the PZ and a lower average travel time or a larger total travel time saving in the entire network.

Ziyuan Gu, Sajjad Shafiei, Zhiyuan Liu et al.

Given the efficiency and equity concerns of a cordon toll, this paper proposes a few alternative distance-dependent area-based pricing models for a large-scale dynamic traffic network. We use the Network Fundamental Diagram (NFD) to monitor the network traffic state over time and consider different trip lengths in the toll calculation. The first model is a distance toll that is linearly related to the distance traveled within the cordon. The second model is an improved joint distance and time toll (JDTT) whereby users are charged jointly in proportion to the distance traveled and time spent within the cordon. The third model is a further improved joint distance and delay toll (JDDT) which replaces the time toll in the JDTT with a delay toll component. To solve the optimal toll level problem, we develop a simulation-based optimization (SBO) framework. Specifically, we propose a simultaneous approach and a sequential approach, respectively, based on the proportional-integral (PI) feedback controller to iteratively adjust the JDTT and JDDT, and use a calibrated large-scale simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model of Melbourne, Australia to evaluate the network performance under different pricing scenarios. While the framework is developed for static pricing, we show that it can be easily extended to solve time-dependent pricing by using multiple PI controllers. Results show that although the distance toll keeps the network from entering the congested regime of the NFD, it naturally drives users into the shortest paths within the cordon resulting in an uneven distribution of congestion. This is reflected by a large clockwise hysteresis loop in the NFD. In contrast, both the JDTT and JDDT reduce the size of the hysteresis loop while achieving the same control objective.