Carlos E. González-Guillén

Carlos Sebastián, Carlos E. González-Guillén

Feature selection is one of the most relevant processes in any methodology for creating a statistical learning model. Usually, existing algorithms establish some criterion to select the most influential variables, discarding those that do not contribute to the model with any relevant information. This methodology makes sense in a static situation where the joint distribution of the data does not vary over time. However, when dealing with real data, it is common to encounter the problem of the dataset shift and, specifically, changes in the relationships between variables (concept shift). In this case, the influence of a variable cannot be the only indicator of its quality as a regressor of the model, since the relationship learned in the training phase may not correspond to the current situation. In tackling this problem, our approach establishes a direct relationship between the Shapley values and prediction errors, operating at a more local level to effectively detect the individual biases introduced by each variable. The proposed methodology is evaluated through various examples, including synthetic scenarios mimicking sudden and incremental shift situations, as well as two real-world cases characterized by concept shifts. Additionally, we perform three analyses of standard situations to assess the algorithm's robustness in the absence of shifts. The results demonstrate that our proposed algorithm significantly outperforms state-of-the-art feature selection methods in concept shift scenarios, while matching the performance of existing methodologies in static situations.

Carlos Sebastián, Carlos E. González-Guillén, Jesús Juan

The study of Day-Ahead prices in the electricity market is one of the most popular problems in time series forecasting. Previous research has focused on employing increasingly complex learning algorithms to capture the sophisticated dynamics of the market. However, there is a threshold where increased complexity fails to yield substantial improvements. In this work, we propose an alternative approach by introducing an adaptive standardisation to mitigate the effects of dataset shifts that commonly occur in the market. By doing so, learning algorithms can prioritize uncovering the true relationship between the target variable and the explanatory variables. We investigate five distinct markets, including two novel datasets, previously unexplored in the literature. These datasets provide a more realistic representation of the current market context, that conventional datasets do not show. The results demonstrate a significant improvement across all five markets using the widely accepted learning algorithms in the literature (LEAR and DNN). In particular, the combination of the proposed methodology with the methodology previously presented in the literature obtains the best results. This significant advancement unveils new lines of research in this field, highlighting the potential of adaptive transformations in enhancing the performance of forecasting models.

Carlos Sebastián, Carlos E. González-Guillén, Jesús Juan

Constructing prediction intervals for time series forecasting is challenging, particularly when practitioners rely solely on point forecasts. While previous research has focused on creating increasingly efficient intervals, we argue that standard measures alone are inadequate. Beyond efficiency, prediction intervals must adapt their width based on the difficulty of the prediction while preserving coverage regardless of complexity. To address these issues, we propose combining Heteroscedastic Quantile Regression (HQR) with Width-Adaptive Conformal Inference (WACI). This integrated procedure guarantees theoretical coverage and enables interval widths to vary with predictive uncertainty. We assess its performance using both a synthetic example and a real world Electricity Price Forecasting scenario. Our results show that this combined approach meets or surpasses typical benchmarks for validity and efficiency, while also fulfilling important yet often overlooked practical requirements.

Alejandro Pozas-Kerstjens, Senaida Hernández-Santana, José Ramón Pareja Monturiol et al.

Tensor networks, widely used for providing efficient representations of low-energy states of local quantum many-body systems, have been recently proposed as machine learning architectures which could present advantages with respect to traditional ones. In this work we show that tensor network architectures have especially prospective properties for privacy-preserving machine learning, which is important in tasks such as the processing of medical records. First, we describe a new privacy vulnerability that is present in feedforward neural networks, illustrating it in synthetic and real-world datasets. Then, we develop well-defined conditions to guarantee robustness to such vulnerability, which involve the characterization of models equivalent under gauge symmetry. We rigorously prove that such conditions are satisfied by tensor-network architectures. In doing so, we define a novel canonical form for matrix product states, which has a high degree of regularity and fixes the residual gauge that is left in the canonical forms based on singular value decompositions. We supplement the analytical findings with practical examples where matrix product states are trained on datasets of medical records, which show large reductions on the probability of an attacker extracting information about the training dataset from the model's parameters. Given the growing expertise in training tensor-network architectures, these results imply that one may not have to be forced to make a choice between accuracy in prediction and ensuring the privacy of the information processed.

Carlos E. González-Guillén, María Isabel González Vasco, Floyd Johnson et al.

Identification schemes are interactive protocols typically involving two parties, a prover, who wants to provide evidence of his or her identity and a verifier, who checks the provided evidence and decide whether it comes or not from the intended prover. In this paper, we comment on a recent proposal for quantum identity authentication from Zawadzki, and give a concrete attack upholding theoretical impossibility results from Lo and Buhrman et al. More precisely, we show that using a simple strategyan adversary may indeed obtain non-negligible information on the shared identification secret. While the security of a quantum identity authentication scheme is not formally defined in [1], it is clear that such a definition should somehow imply that an external entity may gain no information on the shared identification scheme (even if he actively participates injecting messages in a protocol execution, which is not assumed in our attack strategy).