Saba Zuberi

Alex Labach, Aslesha Pokhrel, Xiao Shi Huang et al.

Electronic health records (EHRs) recorded in hospital settings typically contain a wide range of numeric time series data that is characterized by high sparsity and irregular observations. Effective modelling for such data must exploit its time series nature, the semantic relationship between different types of observations, and information in the sparsity structure of the data. Self-supervised Transformers have shown outstanding performance in a variety of structured tasks in NLP and computer vision. But multivariate time series data contains structured relationships over two dimensions: time and recorded event type, and straightforward applications of Transformers to time series data do not leverage this distinct structure. The quadratic scaling of self-attention layers can also significantly limit the input sequence length without appropriate input engineering. We introduce the DuETT architecture, an extension of Transformers designed to attend over both time and event type dimensions, yielding robust representations from EHR data. DuETT uses an aggregated input where sparse time series are transformed into a regular sequence with fixed length; this lowers the computational complexity relative to previous EHR Transformer models and, more importantly, enables the use of larger and deeper neural networks. When trained with self-supervised prediction tasks, that provide rich and informative signals for model pre-training, our model outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning models on multiple downstream tasks from the MIMIC-IV and PhysioNet-2012 EHR datasets.

Linfeng Du, Ji Xin, Alex Labach et al.

Transformer-based models have greatly pushed the boundaries of time series forecasting recently. Existing methods typically encode time series data into $\textit{patches}$ using one or a fixed set of patch lengths. This, however, could result in a lack of ability to capture the variety of intricate temporal dependencies present in real-world multi-periodic time series. In this paper, we propose MultiResFormer, which dynamically models temporal variations by adaptively choosing optimal patch lengths. Concretely, at the beginning of each layer, time series data is encoded into several parallel branches, each using a detected periodicity, before going through the transformer encoder block. We conduct extensive evaluations on long- and short-term forecasting datasets comparing MultiResFormer with state-of-the-art baselines. MultiResFormer outperforms patch-based Transformer baselines on long-term forecasting tasks and also consistently outperforms CNN baselines by a large margin, while using much fewer parameters than these baselines.

Kin Kwan Leung, Clayton Rooke, Jonathan Smith et al.

Time series data introduces two key challenges for explainability methods: firstly, observations of the same feature over subsequent time steps are not independent, and secondly, the same feature can have varying importance to model predictions over time. In this paper, we propose Windowed Feature Importance in Time (WinIT), a feature removal based explainability approach to address these issues. Unlike existing feature removal explanation methods, WinIT explicitly accounts for the temporal dependence between different observations of the same feature in the construction of its importance score. Furthermore, WinIT captures the varying importance of a feature over time, by summarizing its importance over a window of past time steps. We conduct an extensive empirical study on synthetic and real-world data, compare against a wide range of leading explainability methods, and explore the impact of various evaluation strategies. Our results show that WinIT achieves significant gains over existing methods, with more consistent performance across different evaluation metrics. The code for our work is publicly available at \url{https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/WinIT}.