Olivier Compte

Olivier Compte

Q-learning can be described as an all-purpose automaton that provides estimates (Q-values) of the continuation values associated with each available action and follows the naive policy of almost always choosing the action with highest Q-value. We consider a family of automata based on Q-values, whose policy may systematically favor some actions over others, for example through a bias that favors cooperation. We look for stable equilibrium biases, easily learned under converging logit/best-response dynamics over biases, not requiring any tacit agreement. These biases strongly foster collusion or cooperation across a rich array of payoff and monitoring structures, independently of initial Q-values.

Olivier Compte

We propose a belief-formation model where agents attempt to discriminate between two theories, and where the asymmetry in strength between confirming and disconfirming evidence tilts beliefs in favor of theories that generate strong (and possibly rare) confirming evidence and weak (and frequent) disconfirming evidence. In our model, limitations on information processing provide incentives to censor weak evidence, with the consequence that for some discrimination problems, evidence may become mostly one-sided, independently of the true underlying theory. Sophisticated agents who know the characteristics of the censored data-generating process are not lured by this accumulation of ``evidence'', but less sophisticated ones end up with biased beliefs.