Sadananda Behera

Sadananda Behera, Tania Panayiotou, Georgios Ellinas

This work proposes a real-time anomaly detection scheme that leverages the multi-step ahead prediction capabilities of encoder-decoder (ED) deep learning models with recurrent units. Specifically, an encoder-decoder is used to model soft-failure evolution over a long future horizon (i.e., for several days ahead) by analyzing past quality-of-transmission (QoT) observations. This information is subsequently used for real-time anomaly detection (e.g., of attack incidents), as the knowledge of how the QoT is expected to evolve allows capturing unexpected network behavior. Specifically, for anomaly detection, a statistical hypothesis testing scheme is used, alleviating the limitations of supervised (SL) and unsupervised learning (UL) schemes, usually applied for this purpose. Indicatively, the proposed scheme eliminates the need for labeled anomalies, required when SL is applied, and the need for on-line analyzing entire datasets to identify abnormal instances (i.e., UL). Overall, it is shown that by utilizing QoT evolution information, the proposed approach can effectively detect abnormal deviations in real-time. Importantly, it is shown that the information concerning soft-failure evolution (i.e., QoT predictions) is essential to accurately detect anomalies.

Sadananda Behera, Tania Panayiotou, Georgios Ellinas

In this work, the capabilities of an encoder-decoder learning framework are leveraged to predict soft-failure evolution over a long future horizon. This enables the triggering of timely repair actions with low quality-of-transmission (QoT) margins before a costly hard-failure occurs, ultimately reducing the frequency of repair actions and associated operational expenses. Specifically, it is shown that the proposed scheme is capable of triggering a repair action several days prior to the expected day of a hard-failure, contrary to soft-failure detection schemes utilizing rule-based fixed QoT margins, that may lead either to premature repair actions (i.e., several months before the event of a hard-failure) or to repair actions that are taken too late (i.e., after the hard failure has occurred). Both frameworks are evaluated and compared for a lightpath established in an elastic optical network, where soft-failure evolution can be modeled by analyzing bit-error-rate information monitored at the coherent receivers.

Saroj Kumar Panda, Basabdatta Palit, Sadananda Behera

We propose FedNET, a proactive and privacy-preserving framework for early identification of high-risk links in large-scale communication networks, that leverages a distributed multi-step traffic forecasting method. FedNET employs Federated Learning (FL) to model the temporal evolution of node-level traffic in a distributed manner, enabling accurate multi-step-ahead predictions (e.g., several hours to days) without exposing sensitive network data. Using these node-level forecasts and known routing information, FedNET estimates the future link-level utilization by aggregating traffic contributions across all source-destination pairs. The links are then ranked according to the predicted load intensity and temporal variability, providing an early warning signal for potential high-risk links. We compare the federated traffic prediction of FedNET against a centralized multi-step learning baseline and then systematically analyze the impact of history and prediction window sizes on forecast accuracy using the $R^2$ score. Results indicate that FL achieves accuracy close to centralized training, with shorter prediction horizons consistently yielding the highest accuracy ($R^2 >0.92$), while longer horizons providing meaningful forecasts ($R^2 \approx 0.45\text{--}0.55$). We further validate the efficacy of the FedNET framework in predicting network utilization on a realistic network topology and demonstrate that it consistently identifies high-risk links well in advance (i.e., three days ahead) of the critical stress states emerging, making it a practical tool for anticipatory traffic engineering and capacity planning.