Peter Graf

Patrick Emami, Abhijeet Sahu, Peter Graf

Short-term forecasting of residential and commercial building energy consumption is widely used in power systems and continues to grow in importance. Data-driven short-term load forecasting (STLF), although promising, has suffered from a lack of open, large-scale datasets with high building diversity. This has hindered exploring the pretrain-then-fine-tune paradigm for STLF. To help address this, we present BuildingsBench, which consists of: 1) Buildings-900K, a large-scale dataset of 900K simulated buildings representing the U.S. building stock; and 2) an evaluation platform with over 1,900 real residential and commercial buildings from 7 open datasets. BuildingsBench benchmarks two under-explored tasks: zero-shot STLF, where a pretrained model is evaluated on unseen buildings without fine-tuning, and transfer learning, where a pretrained model is fine-tuned on a target building. The main finding of our benchmark analysis is that synthetically pretrained models generalize surprisingly well to real commercial buildings. An exploration of the effect of increasing dataset size and diversity on zero-shot commercial building performance reveals a power-law with diminishing returns. We also show that fine-tuning pretrained models on real commercial and residential buildings improves performance for a majority of target buildings. We hope that BuildingsBench encourages and facilitates future research on generalizable STLF. All datasets and code can be accessed from https://github.com/NREL/BuildingsBench.

Peter Graf, Patrick Emami

Neurosymbolic AI combines the interpretability, parsimony, and explicit reasoning of classical symbolic approaches with the statistical learning of data-driven neural approaches. Models and policies that are simultaneously differentiable and interpretable may be key enablers of this marriage. This paper demonstrates three pathways to implementing such models and policies in a real-world reinforcement learning setting. Specifically, we study a broad class of neural networks that build interpretable semantics directly into their architecture. We reveal and highlight both the potential and the essential difficulties of combining logic, simulation, and learning. One lesson is that learning benefits from continuity and differentiability, but classical logic is discrete and non-differentiable. The relaxation to real-valued, differentiable representations presents a trade-off; the more learnable, the less interpretable. Another lesson is that using logic in the context of a numerical simulation involves a non-trivial mapping from raw (e.g., real-valued time series) simulation data to logical predicates. Some open questions this note exposes include: What are the limits of rule-based controllers, and how learnable are they? Do the differentiable interpretable approaches discussed here scale to large, complex, uncertain systems? Can we truly achieve interpretability? We highlight these and other themes across the three approaches.