Jay W. McMahon

Grace E. Calkins, Jay W. McMahon, David C. Woffinden

Aerocapture is particularly challenging for semi-analytical propagation because the dynamics are dominated by nonconservative forces whose magnitudes vary significantly throughout the trajectory. State transition tensors (STTs), higher-order Taylor series expansions of the solution flow, have been widely used as a computationally efficient semi-analytical propagation method for orbital scenarios, but have not previously been applied to aerocapture. However, computing higher-order STTs requires integrating exponentially many equations as the state dimension increases. Directional state transition tensors (DSTTs) mitigate this cost by projecting the state into a reduced-dimension basis. This work develops novel dynamics analysis techniques to identify effective bases for this reduction, including augmented higher-order Cauchy Green tensors tailored to quantities of interest such as apoapsis radius. Results show that DSTTs constructed along these bases significantly reduce computational cost while maintaining accuracy in predicted apoapsis radius and terminal energy. In particular, certain of these DSTTs outperform traditional DSTTs in nonlinear perturbation propagation for key state subsets and quantities of interest. These results establish STTs and DSTTs as practical tools for aerocapture performance analysis to enable robust guidance and navigation.

Grace E. Calkins, Jay W. McMahon, Alireza Doostan et al.

Aerocapture is sensitive to trajectory errors, particularly for low-cost missions with imprecise navigation. For such missions, considering the probability of each failure mode when computing guidance commands can increase capture rate. A risk-aware aerocapture guidance algorithm is proposed that uses a generative model-based probabilistic indicator function to estimate escape, impact, or capture probabilities. The probability of each mode is incorporated into corrective guidance commands to increase the likelihood of successful capture. The proposed method is evaluated against state-of-the-art numeric predictor-corrector guidance algorithms in high-uncertainty scenarios where entry interface dispersions lead to nontrivial failure probabilities. When using a probabilistic indicator function in guidance, 71.43% to 100% of recoverable cases are saved for a variety of initial distributions and atmosphere models. The probabilistic indicator function is capable of predicting failure probability for dispersions and atmosphere models outside its training data, showing generalizability. In addition, the probabilistic indicator is compared to a fading memory filter for density estimation, demonstrating improvements in accuracy when both are used in conjunction. The proposed risk-aware aerocapture guidance algorithm improves capture performance and robustness to entry interface state dispersions, especially for missions with high navigation uncertainty.

Jens A. Rataczak, Davide Amato, Jay W. McMahon

This work presents a deep-learning approach to estimate atmospheric density profiles for use in planetary entry guidance problems. A long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network is trained to learn the mapping between measurements available onboard an entry vehicle and the density profile through which it is flying. Measurements include the spherical state representation, Cartesian sensed acceleration components, and a surface-pressure measurement. Training data for the network is initially generated by performing a Monte Carlo analysis of an entry mission at Mars using the fully numerical predictor-corrector guidance (FNPEG) algorithm that utilizes an exponential density model, while the truth density profiles are sampled from MarsGRAM. A curriculum learning procedure is developed to refine the LSTM network's predictions for integration within the FNPEG algorithm. The trained LSTM is capable of both predicting the density profile through which the vehicle will fly and reconstructing the density profile through which it has already flown. The performance of the FNPEG algorithm is assessed for three different density estimation techniques: an exponential model, an exponential model augmented with a first-order fading-memory filter, and the LSTM network. Results demonstrate that using the LSTM model results in superior terminal accuracy compared to the other two techniques when considering both noisy and noiseless measurements.

Jacopo Villa, Jay W. McMahon, Issa A. D. Nesnas

We present an algorithm to estimate the rotation pole of a principal-axis rotator using silhouette images collected from multiple camera poses. First, a set of images is stacked to form a single silhouette-stack image, where the object's rotation introduces reflective symmetry about the imaged pole direction. We estimate this projected-pole direction by identifying maximum symmetry in the silhouette stack. To handle unknown center-of-mass image location, we apply the Discrete Fourier Transform to produce the silhouette-stack amplitude spectrum, achieving translation invariance and increased robustness to noise. Second, the 3D pole orientation is estimated by combining two or more projected-pole measurements collected from different camera orientations. We demonstrate degree-level pole estimation accuracy using low-resolution imagery, showing robustness to severe surface shadowing and centroid-based image-registration errors. The proposed approach could be suitable for pole estimation during both the approach phase toward a target object and while hovering.

Chun-Wei Kong, Luca Laurenti, Jay McMahon et al.

Stochastic differential equations are commonly used to describe the evolution of stochastic processes. The state uncertainty of such processes is best represented by the probability density function (PDF), whose evolution is governed by the Fokker-Planck partial differential equation (FP-PDE). However, it is generally infeasible to solve the FP-PDE in closed form. In this work, we show that physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) can be trained to approximate the solution PDF. Our main contribution is the analysis of PINN approximation error: we develop a theoretical framework to construct tight error bounds using PINNs. In addition, we derive a practical error bound that can be efficiently constructed with standard training methods. We discuss that this error-bound framework generalizes to approximate solutions of other linear PDEs. Empirical results on nonlinear, high-dimensional, and chaotic systems validate the correctness of our error bounds while demonstrating the scalability of PINNs and their significant computational speedup in obtaining accurate PDF solutions compared to the Monte Carlo approach.

Jacopo Villa, Andrew French, Jay McMahon et al.

Despite numerous successful missions to small celestial bodies, the gravity field of such targets has been poorly characterized so far. Gravity estimates can be used to infer the internal structure and composition of small bodies and, as such, have strong implications in the fields of planetary science, planetary defense, and in-situ resource utilization. Current gravimetry techniques at small bodies mostly rely on tracking the spacecraft orbital motion, where the gravity observability is low. To date, only lower-degree and order spherical harmonics of small-body gravity fields could be resolved. In this paper, we evaluate gravimetry performance for a novel mission architecture where artificial probes repeatedly hop across the surface of the small body and perform low-altitude, suborbital arcs. Such probes are tracked using optical measurements from the mothership's onboard camera and orbit determination is performed to estimate the probe trajectories, the small body's rotational kinematics, and the gravity field. The suborbital motion of the probes provides dense observations at low altitude, where the gravity signal is stronger. We assess the impact of observation parameters and mission duration on gravity observability. Results suggest that the gravitational spherical harmonics of a small body with the same mass as the asteroid Bennu, can be observed at least up to degree 40 within months of observations. Measurement precision and frequency are key to achieve high-performance gravimetry.