Daniel Groos

Kimji N. Pellano, Inga Strümke, Daniel Groos et al.

Early detection of Cerebral Palsy (CP) is crucial for effective intervention and monitoring. This paper tests the reliability and applicability of Explainable AI (XAI) methods using a deep learning method that predicts CP by analyzing skeletal data extracted from video recordings of infant movements. Specifically, we use XAI evaluation metrics -- namely faithfulness and stability -- to quantitatively assess the reliability of Class Activation Mapping (CAM) and Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) in this specific medical application. We utilize a unique dataset of infant movements and apply skeleton data perturbations without distorting the original dynamics of the infant movements. Our CP prediction model utilizes an ensemble approach, so we evaluate the XAI metrics performances for both the overall ensemble and the individual models. Our findings indicate that both XAI methods effectively identify key body points influencing CP predictions and that the explanations are robust against minor data perturbations. Grad-CAM significantly outperforms CAM in the RISv metric, which measures stability in terms of velocity. In contrast, CAM performs better in the RISb metric, which relates to bone stability, and the RRS metric, which assesses internal representation robustness. Individual models within the ensemble show varied results, and neither CAM nor Grad-CAM consistently outperform the other, with the ensemble approach providing a representation of outcomes from its constituent models.

Daniel Groos

Fantasy Premier League engages the football community in selecting the Premier League players who will perform best from gameweek to gameweek. Access to accurate performance forecasts gives participants an edge over competitors by guiding expectations about player outcomes and reducing uncertainty in squad selection. However, high-accuracy forecasts are currently limited to commercial services whose inner workings are undisclosed and that rely on proprietary data. This paper aims to democratize access to highly accurate forecasts of player performance by presenting OpenFPL, an open-source Fantasy Premier League forecasting method developed exclusively from public data. Comprising position-specific ensemble models optimized on Fantasy Premier League and Understat data from four previous seasons (2020-21 to 2023-24), OpenFPL achieves accuracy comparable to a leading commercial service when tested prospectively on data from the 2024-25 season. OpenFPL also surpasses the commercial benchmark for high-return players ($>$ 2 points), which are most influential for rank gains. These findings hold across one-, two-, and three-gameweek forecast horizons, supporting long-term planning of transfers and strategies while also informing final-day decisions.

Felix Tempel, Daniel Groos, Espen Alexander F. Ihlen et al.

Explaining machine learning (ML) models using eXplainable AI (XAI) techniques has become essential to make them more transparent and trustworthy. This is especially important in high-stakes domains like healthcare, where understanding model decisions is critical to ensure ethical, sound, and trustworthy outcome predictions. However, users are often confused about which explanability method to choose for their specific use case. We present a comparative analysis of widely used explainability methods, Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM), within the domain of human activity recognition (HAR) utilizing graph convolutional networks (GCNs). By evaluating these methods on skeleton-based data from two real-world datasets, including a healthcare-critical cerebral palsy (CP) case, this study provides vital insights into both approaches' strengths, limitations, and differences, offering a roadmap for selecting the most appropriate explanation method based on specific models and applications. We quantitatively and quantitatively compare these methods, focusing on feature importance ranking, interpretability, and model sensitivity through perturbation experiments. While SHAP provides detailed input feature attribution, Grad-CAM delivers faster, spatially oriented explanations, making both methods complementary depending on the application's requirements. Given the importance of XAI in enhancing trust and transparency in ML models, particularly in sensitive environments like healthcare, our research demonstrates how SHAP and Grad-CAM could complement each other to provide more interpretable and actionable model explanations.

Kimji N. Pellano, Inga Strümke, Daniel Groos et al.

Cerebral Palsy (CP) is a prevalent motor disability in children, for which early detection can significantly improve treatment outcomes. While skeleton-based Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) models have shown promise in automatically predicting CP risk from infant videos, their "black-box" nature raises concerns about clinical explainability. To address this, we introduce a perturbation framework tailored for infant movement features and use it to compare two explainable AI (XAI) methods: Class Activation Mapping (CAM) and Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM). First, we identify significant and non-significant body keypoints in very low- and very high-risk infant video snippets based on the XAI attribution scores. We then conduct targeted velocity and angular perturbations, both individually and in combination, on these keypoints to assess how the GCN model's risk predictions change. Our results indicate that velocity-driven features of the arms, hips, and legs have a dominant influence on CP risk predictions, while angular perturbations have a more modest impact. Furthermore, CAM and Grad-CAM show partial convergence in their explanations for both low- and high-risk CP groups. Our findings demonstrate the use of XAI-driven movement analysis for early CP prediction and offer insights into potential movement-based biomarker discovery that warrant further clinical validation.

Daniel Groos, Lars Adde, Ragnhild Støen et al.

Assessment of spontaneous movements can predict the long-term developmental disorders in high-risk infants. In order to develop algorithms for automated prediction of later disorders, highly precise localization of segments and joints by infant pose estimation is required. Four types of convolutional neural networks were trained and evaluated on a novel infant pose dataset, covering the large variation in 1 424 videos from a clinical international community. The localization performance of the networks was evaluated as the deviation between the estimated keypoint positions and human expert annotations. The computational efficiency was also assessed to determine the feasibility of the neural networks in clinical practice. The best performing neural network had a similar localization error to the inter-rater spread of human expert annotations, while still operating efficiently. Overall, the results of our study show that pose estimation of infant spontaneous movements has a great potential to support research initiatives on early detection of developmental disorders in children with perinatal brain injuries by quantifying infant movements from video recordings with human-level performance.

Daniel Groos, Heri Ramampiaro, Espen A. F. Ihlen

Single-person human pose estimation facilitates markerless movement analysis in sports, as well as in clinical applications. Still, state-of-the-art models for human pose estimation generally do not meet the requirements of real-life applications. The proliferation of deep learning techniques has resulted in the development of many advanced approaches. However, with the progresses in the field, more complex and inefficient models have also been introduced, which have caused tremendous increases in computational demands. To cope with these complexity and inefficiency challenges, we propose a novel convolutional neural network architecture, called EfficientPose, which exploits recently proposed EfficientNets in order to deliver efficient and scalable single-person pose estimation. EfficientPose is a family of models harnessing an effective multi-scale feature extractor and computationally efficient detection blocks using mobile inverted bottleneck convolutions, while at the same time ensuring that the precision of the pose configurations is still improved. Due to its low complexity and efficiency, EfficientPose enables real-world applications on edge devices by limiting the memory footprint and computational cost. The results from our experiments, using the challenging MPII single-person benchmark, show that the proposed EfficientPose models substantially outperform the widely-used OpenPose model both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. In particular, our top-performing model achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on single-person MPII, with low-complexity ConvNets.