Jose A. Lozano

Verónica Álvarez, Santiago Mazuelas, Jose A. Lozano

The statistical characteristics of instance-label pairs often change with time in practical scenarios of supervised classification. Conventional learning techniques adapt to such concept drift accounting for a scalar rate of change by means of a carefully chosen learning rate, forgetting factor, or window size. However, the time changes in common scenarios are multidimensional, i.e., different statistical characteristics often change in a different manner. This paper presents adaptive minimax risk classifiers (AMRCs) that account for multidimensional time changes by means of a multivariate and high-order tracking of the time-varying underlying distribution. In addition, differently from conventional techniques, AMRCs can provide computable tight performance guarantees. Experiments on multiple benchmark datasets show the classification improvement of AMRCs compared to the state-of-the-art and the reliability of the presented performance guarantees.

Ainhize Barrainkua, Paula Gordaliza, Jose A. Lozano et al.

Human lives are increasingly being affected by the outcomes of automated decision-making systems and it is essential for the latter to be, not only accurate, but also fair. The literature of algorithmic fairness has grown considerably over the last decade, where most of the approaches are evaluated under the strong assumption that the train and test samples are independently and identically drawn from the same underlying distribution. However, in practice, dissimilarity between the training and deployment environments exists, which compromises the performance of the decision-making algorithm as well as its fairness guarantees in the deployment data. There is an emergent research line that studies how to preserve fairness guarantees when the data generating processes differ between the source (train) and target (test) domains, which is growing remarkably. With this survey, we aim to provide a wide and unifying overview on the topic. For such purpose, we propose a taxonomy of the existing approaches for fair classification under distribution shift, highlight benchmarking alternatives, point out the relation with other similar research fields and eventually, identify future venues of research.

Ainhize Barrainkua, Paula Gordaliza, Jose A. Lozano et al.

Several recent works encourage the use of a Bayesian framework when assessing performance and fairness metrics of a classification algorithm in a supervised setting. We propose the Uncertainty Matters (UM) framework that generalizes a Beta-Binomial approach to derive the posterior distribution of any criteria combination, allowing stable performance assessment in a bias-aware setting.We suggest modeling the confusion matrix of each demographic group using a Multinomial distribution updated through a Bayesian procedure. We extend UM to be applicable under the popular K-fold cross-validation procedure. Experiments highlight the benefits of UM over classical evaluation frameworks regarding informativeness and stability.

Aitor Sánchez-Ferrera, Borja Calvo, Jose A. Lozano

Time series anomaly detection presents various challenges due to the sequential and dynamic nature of time-dependent data. Traditional unsupervised methods frequently encounter difficulties in generalization, often overfitting to known normal patterns observed during training and struggling to adapt to unseen normality. In response to this limitation, self-supervised techniques for time series have garnered attention as a potential solution to undertake this obstacle and enhance the performance of anomaly detectors. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the recent methods that make use of self-supervised learning for time series anomaly detection. A taxonomy is proposed to categorize these methods based on their primary characteristics, facilitating a clear understanding of their diversity within this field. The information contained in this survey, along with additional details that will be periodically updated, is available on the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/Aitorzan3/Awesome-Self-Supervised-Time-Series-Anomaly-Detection.

Mikel Malagón, Josu Ceberio, Jose A. Lozano

Advances in large models, reinforcement learning, and open-endedness have accelerated progress toward autonomous agents that can learn and interact in the real world. To achieve this, flexible tools are needed to create rich, yet computationally efficient, environments. While scalable 2D environments fail to address key real-world challenges like 3D navigation and spatial reasoning, more complex 3D environments are computationally expensive and lack features like customizability and multi-agent support. This paper introduces Craftium, a highly customizable and easy-to-use platform for building rich 3D single- and multi-agent environments. We showcase environments of different complexity and nature: from single- and multi-agent tasks to vast worlds with many creatures and biomes, and customizable procedural task generators. Benchmarking shows that Craftium significantly reduces the computational cost of alternatives of similar richness, achieving +2K steps per second more than Minecraft-based frameworks.

Onintze Zaballa, Aritz Pérez, Elisa Gómez-Inhiesto et al.

Electronic health records contain valuable information for monitoring patients' health trajectories over time. Disease progression models have been developed to understand the underlying patterns and dynamics of diseases using these data as sequences. However, analyzing temporal data from EHRs is challenging due to the variability and irregularities present in medical records. We propose a Markovian generative model of treatments developed to (i) model the irregular time intervals between medical events; (ii) classify treatments into subtypes based on the patient sequence of medical events and the time intervals between them; and (iii) segment treatments into subsequences of disease progression patterns. We assume that sequences have an associated structure of latent variables: a latent class representing the different subtypes of treatments; and a set of latent stages indicating the phase of progression of the treatments. We use the Expectation-Maximization algorithm to learn the model, which is efficiently solved with a dynamic programming-based method. Various parametric models have been employed to model the time intervals between medical events during the learning process, including the geometric, exponential, and Weibull distributions. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in recovering the underlying model from data and accurately modeling the irregular time intervals between medical actions.

Verónica Álvarez, Santiago Mazuelas, Jose A. Lozano

For a sequence of classification tasks that arrive over time, it is common that tasks are evolving in the sense that consecutive tasks often have a higher similarity. The incremental learning of a growing sequence of tasks holds promise to enable accurate classification even with few samples per task by leveraging information from all the tasks in the sequence (forward and backward learning). However, existing techniques developed for continual learning and concept drift adaptation are either designed for tasks with time-independent similarities or only aim to learn the last task in the sequence. This paper presents incremental minimax risk classifiers (IMRCs) that effectively exploit forward and backward learning and account for evolving tasks. In addition, we analytically characterize the performance improvement provided by forward and backward learning in terms of the tasks' expected quadratic change and the number of tasks. The experimental evaluation shows that IMRCs can result in a significant performance improvement, especially for reduced sample sizes.

Nicolas A. Errandonea, Santiago Mazuelas, Jose A. Lozano et al.

Prior work on partial labels learning (PLL) has shown that learning is possible even when each instance is associated with a bag of labels, rather than a single accurate but costly label. However, the necessary conditions for learning with partial labels remain unclear, and existing PLL methods are effective only in specific scenarios. In this work, we mathematically characterize the settings in which PLL is feasible. In addition, we present PL A-$k$NN, an adaptive nearest-neighbors algorithm for PLL that is effective in general scenarios and enjoys strong performance guarantees. Experimental results corroborate that PL A-$k$NN can outperform state-of-the-art methods in general PLL scenarios.

Ainhize Barrainkua, Santiago Mazuelas, Novi Quadrianto et al.

As automated classification systems become increasingly prevalent, concerns have emerged over their potential to reinforce and amplify existing societal biases. In the light of this issue, many methods have been proposed to enhance the fairness guarantees of classifiers. Most of the existing interventions assume access to group information for all instances, a requirement rarely met in practice. Fairness without access to demographic information has often been approached through robust optimization techniques,which target worst-case outcomes over a set of plausible distributions known as the uncertainty set. However, their effectiveness is strongly influenced by the chosen uncertainty set. In fact, existing approaches often overemphasize outliers or overly pessimistic scenarios, compromising both overall performance and fairness. To overcome these limitations, we introduce SPECTRE, a minimax-fair method that adjusts the spectrum of a simple Fourier feature mapping and constrains the extent to which the worst-case distribution can deviate from the empirical distribution. We perform extensive experiments on the American Community Survey datasets involving 20 states. The safeness of SPECTRE comes as it provides the highest average values on fairness guarantees together with the smallest interquartile range in comparison to state-of-the-art approaches, even compared to those with access to demographic group information. In addition, we provide a theoretical analysis that derives computable bounds on the worst-case error for both individual groups and the overall population, as well as characterizes the worst-case distributions responsible for these extremal performances

Mikel Malagón, Josu Ceberio, Jose A. Lozano

This work introduces a growable and modular neural network architecture that naturally avoids catastrophic forgetting and interference in continual reinforcement learning. The structure of each module allows the selective combination of previous policies along with its internal policy, accelerating the learning process on the current task. Unlike previous growing neural network approaches, we show that the number of parameters of the proposed approach grows linearly with respect to the number of tasks, and does not sacrifice plasticity to scale. Experiments conducted in benchmark continuous control and visual problems reveal that the proposed approach achieves greater knowledge transfer and performance than alternative methods.

Thomas Kehrenberg, Javier Sanguino, Jose A. Lozano et al.

The field of performative prediction had its beginnings in 2020 with the seminal paper "Performative Prediction" by Perdomo et al., which established a novel machine learning setup where the deployment of a predictive model causes a distribution shift in the environment, which in turn causes a mismatch between the distribution expected by the predictive model and the real distribution. This shift is defined by a so-called distribution map. In the half-decade since, a literature has emerged which has, among other things, introduced new solution concepts to the original setup, extended the setup, offered new theoretical analyses, and examined the intersection of performative prediction and other established fields. In this survey, we first lay out the performative prediction setting and explain the different optimization targets: performative stability and performative optimality. We introduce a new way of classifying different performative prediction settings, based on how much information is available about the distribution map. We survey existing implementations of distribution maps and existing methods to address the problem of performative prediction, while examining different ways to categorize them. Finally, we point out known and previously unknown connections that can be drawn to other fields, in the hopes of stimulating future research.

Aitor Sánchez-Ferrera, Usue Mori, Borja Calvo et al.

Time series anomaly detection plays a critical role in a wide range of real-world applications. Among unsupervised approaches, self-supervised learning has gained traction for modeling normal behavior without the need of labeled data. However, many existing methods rely on a single proxy task, limiting their ability to capture meaningful patterns in normal data. Moreover, they often depend on handcrafted transformations tailored specific domains, hindering their generalization accross diverse problems. To address these limitations, we introduce NeuCoReClass AD, a self-supervised multi-task time series anomaly detection framework that combines contrastive, reconstruction, and classification proxy tasks. Our method employs neural transformation learning to generate augmented views that are informative, diverse, and coherent, without requiring domain-specific knowledge. We evaluate NeuCoReClass AD across a wide range of benchmarks, demonstrating that it consistently outperforms both classical baselines and most deep-learning alternatives. Furthermore, it enables the characterization of distinct anomaly profiles in a fully unsupervised manner.

Javier Sanguino, Thomas Kehrenberg, Jose A. Lozano et al.

Performative Prediction addresses scenarios where deploying a model induces a distribution shift in the input data, such as individuals modifying their features and reapplying for a bank loan after rejection. Literature has had a theoretical perspective giving mathematical guarantees for convergence (either to the stable or optimal point). We believe that visualization of the loss landscape can complement this theoretical advances with practical insights. Therefore, (1) we introduce a simple decoupled risk visualization method inspired in the two-step process that performative prediction is. Our approach visualizes the risk landscape with respect to two parameter vectors: model parameters and data parameters. We use this method to propose new properties of the interest points, to examine how existing algorithms traverse the risk landscape and perform under more realistic conditions, including strategic classification with non-linear models. (2) Building on this decoupled risk visualization, we introduce a novel setting - extended Performative Prediction - which captures scenarios where the distribution reacts to a model different from the decision-making one, reflecting the reality that agents often lack full access to the deployed model.

Verónica Álvarez, Santiago Mazuelas, Jose A. Lozano

Multiple supervised learning scenarios are composed by a sequence of classification tasks. For instance, multi-task learning and continual learning aim to learn a sequence of tasks that is either fixed or grows over time. Existing techniques for learning tasks that are in a sequence are tailored to specific scenarios, lacking adaptability to others. In addition, most of existing techniques consider situations in which the order of the tasks in the sequence is not relevant. However, it is common that tasks in a sequence are evolving in the sense that consecutive tasks often have a higher similarity. This paper presents a learning methodology that is applicable to multiple supervised learning scenarios and adapts to evolving tasks. Differently from existing techniques, we provide computable tight performance guarantees and analytically characterize the increase in the effective sample size. Experiments on benchmark datasets show the performance improvement of the proposed methodology in multiple scenarios and the reliability of the presented performance guarantees.

Ainhize Barrainkua, Paula Gordaliza, Jose A. Lozano et al.

This paper introduces a novel approach to bolster algorithmic fairness in scenarios where sensitive information is only partially known. In particular, we propose to leverage instances with uncertain identity with regards to the sensitive attribute to train a conventional machine learning classifier. The enhanced fairness observed in the final predictions of this classifier highlights the promising potential of prioritizing ambiguity (i.e., non-normativity) as a means to improve fairness guarantees in real-world classification tasks.

Jon Vadillo, Roberto Santana, Jose A. Lozano et al.

The lack of transparency of Deep Neural Networks continues to be a limitation that severely undermines their reliability and usage in high-stakes applications. Promising approaches to overcome such limitations are Prototype-Based Self-Explainable Neural Networks (PSENNs), whose predictions rely on the similarity between the input at hand and a set of prototypical representations of the output classes, offering therefore a deep, yet transparent-by-design, architecture. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic reformulation of PSENNs, called Prob-PSENN, which replaces point estimates for the prototypes with probability distributions over their values. This provides not only a more flexible framework for an end-to-end learning of prototypes, but can also capture the explanatory uncertainty of the model, which is a missing feature in previous approaches. In addition, since the prototypes determine both the explanation and the prediction, Prob-PSENNs allow us to detect when the model is making uninformed or uncertain predictions, and to obtain valid explanations for them. Our experiments demonstrate that Prob-PSENNs provide more meaningful and robust explanations than their non-probabilistic counterparts, while remaining competitive in terms of predictive performance, thus enhancing the explainability and reliability of the models.

Jon Vadillo, Roberto Santana, Jose A. Lozano

Reliable deployment of machine learning models such as neural networks continues to be challenging due to several limitations. Some of the main shortcomings are the lack of interpretability and the lack of robustness against adversarial examples or out-of-distribution inputs. In this exploratory review, we explore the possibilities and limits of adversarial attacks for explainable machine learning models. First, we extend the notion of adversarial examples to fit in explainable machine learning scenarios, in which the inputs, the output classifications and the explanations of the model's decisions are assessed by humans. Next, we propose a comprehensive framework to study whether (and how) adversarial examples can be generated for explainable models under human assessment, introducing and illustrating novel attack paradigms. In particular, our framework considers a wide range of relevant yet often ignored factors such as the type of problem, the user expertise or the objective of the explanations, in order to identify the attack strategies that should be adopted in each scenario to successfully deceive the model (and the human). The intention of these contributions is to serve as a basis for a more rigorous and realistic study of adversarial examples in the field of explainable machine learning.

Jon Vadillo, Roberto Santana, Jose A. Lozano

The reasons why Deep Neural Networks are susceptible to being fooled by adversarial examples remains an open discussion. Indeed, many different strategies can be employed to efficiently generate adversarial attacks, some of them relying on different theoretical justifications. Among these strategies, universal (input-agnostic) perturbations are of particular interest, due to their capability to fool a network independently of the input in which the perturbation is applied. In this work, we investigate an intriguing phenomenon of universal perturbations, which has been reported previously in the literature, yet without a proven justification: universal perturbations change the predicted classes for most inputs into one particular (dominant) class, even if this behavior is not specified during the creation of the perturbation. In order to justify the cause of this phenomenon, we propose a number of hypotheses and experimentally test them using a speech command classification problem in the audio domain as a testbed. Our analyses reveal interesting properties of universal perturbations, suggest new methods to generate such attacks and provide an explanation of dominant classes, under both a geometric and a data-feature perspective.

Jon Vadillo, Roberto Santana, Jose A. Lozano

Despite the remarkable performance and generalization levels of deep learning models in a wide range of artificial intelligence tasks, it has been demonstrated that these models can be easily fooled by the addition of imperceptible yet malicious perturbations to natural inputs. These altered inputs are known in the literature as adversarial examples. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic framework to generalize and extend adversarial attacks in order to produce a desired probability distribution for the classes when we apply the attack method to a large number of inputs. This novel attack paradigm provides the adversary with greater control over the target model, thereby exposing, in a wide range of scenarios, threats against deep learning models that cannot be conducted by the conventional paradigms. We introduce four different strategies to efficiently generate such attacks, and illustrate our approach by extending multiple adversarial attack algorithms. We also experimentally validate our approach for the spoken command classification task and the Tweet emotion classification task, two exemplary machine learning problems in the audio and text domain, respectively. Our results demonstrate that we can closely approximate any probability distribution for the classes while maintaining a high fooling rate and even prevent the attacks from being detected by label-shift detection methods.

Ane Blázquez-García, Angel Conde, Usue Mori et al.

Recent advances in technology have brought major breakthroughs in data collection, enabling a large amount of data to be gathered over time and thus generating time series. Mining this data has become an important task for researchers and practitioners in the past few years, including the detection of outliers or anomalies that may represent errors or events of interest. This review aims to provide a structured and comprehensive state-of-the-art on outlier detection techniques in the context of time series. To this end, a taxonomy is presented based on the main aspects that characterize an outlier detection technique.

Ibai Roman, Roberto Santana, Alexander Mendiburu et al.

Choosing the most adequate kernel is crucial in many Machine Learning applications. Gaussian Process is a state-of-the-art technique for regression and classification that heavily relies on a kernel function. However, in the Gaussian Process literature, kernels have usually been either ad hoc designed, selected from a predefined set, or searched for in a space of compositions of kernels which have been defined a priori. In this paper, we propose a Genetic-Programming algorithm that represents a kernel function as a tree of elementary mathematical expressions. By means of this representation, a wider set of kernels can be modeled, where potentially better solutions can be found, although new challenges also arise. The proposed algorithm is able to overcome these difficulties and find kernels that accurately model the characteristics of the data. This method has been tested in several real-world time-series extrapolation problems, improving the state-of-the-art results while reducing the complexity of the kernels.

Ibai Roman, Alexander Mendiburu, Roberto Santana et al.

Sentiment analysis consists of evaluating opinions or statements from the analysis of text. Among the methods used to estimate the degree in which a text expresses a given sentiment, are those based on Gaussian Processes. However, traditional Gaussian Processes methods use a predefined kernel with hyperparameters that can be tuned but whose structure can not be adapted. In this paper, we propose the application of Genetic Programming for evolving Gaussian Process kernels that are more precise for sentiment analysis. We use use a very flexible representation of kernels combined with a multi-objective approach that simultaneously considers two quality metrics and the computational time spent by the kernels. Our results show that the algorithm can outperform Gaussian Processes with traditional kernels for some of the sentiment analysis tasks considered.

Javier Moreno, Daniel Rodriguez, Antonio Nebro et al.

Many Pareto-based multi-objective evolutionary algorithms require to rank the solutions of the population in each iteration according to the dominance principle, what can become a costly operation particularly in the case of dealing with many-objective optimization problems. In this paper, we present a new efficient algorithm for computing the non-dominated sorting procedure, called Merge Non-Dominated Sorting (MNDS), which has a best computational complexity of $Θ(NlogN)$ and a worst computational complexity of $Θ(MN^2)$. Our approach is based on the computation of the dominance set of each solution by taking advantage of the characteristics of the merge sort algorithm. We compare the MNDS against four well-known techniques that can be considered as the state-of-the-art. The results indicate that the MNDS algorithm outperforms the other techniques in terms of number of comparisons as well as the total running time.

Amaia Abanda, Usue Mori, Jose A. Lozano

Time series classification is an increasing research topic due to the vast amount of time series data that are being created over a wide variety of fields. The particularity of the data makes it a challenging task and different approaches have been taken, including the distance based approach. 1-NN has been a widely used method within distance based time series classification due to it simplicity but still good performance. However, its supremacy may be attributed to being able to use specific distances for time series within the classification process and not to the classifier itself. With the aim of exploiting these distances within more complex classifiers, new approaches have arisen in the past few years that are competitive or which outperform the 1-NN based approaches. In some cases, these new methods use the distance measure to transform the series into feature vectors, bridging the gap between time series and traditional classifiers. In other cases, the distances are employed to obtain a time series kernel and enable the use of kernel methods for time series classification. One of the main challenges is that a kernel function must be positive semi-definite, a matter that is also addressed within this review. The presented review includes a taxonomy of all those methods that aim to classify time series using a distance based approach, as well as a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of each method.

Marco Capó, Aritz Pérez, Jose A. Lozano

The analysis of continously larger datasets is a task of major importance in a wide variety of scientific fields. In this sense, cluster analysis algorithms are a key element of exploratory data analysis, due to their easiness in the implementation and relatively low computational cost. Among these algorithms, the K -means algorithm stands out as the most popular approach, besides its high dependency on the initial conditions, as well as to the fact that it might not scale well on massive datasets. In this article, we propose a recursive and parallel approximation to the K -means algorithm that scales well on both the number of instances and dimensionality of the problem, without affecting the quality of the approximation. In order to achieve this, instead of analyzing the entire dataset, we work on small weighted sets of points that mostly intend to extract information from those regions where it is harder to determine the correct cluster assignment of the original instances. In addition to different theoretical properties, which deduce the reasoning behind the algorithm, experimental results indicate that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art in terms of the trade-off between number of distance computations and the quality of the solution obtained.

Jonathan Ortigosa-Hernández, Iñaki Inza, Jose A. Lozano

Although a great methodological effort has been invested in proposing competitive solutions to the class-imbalance problem, little effort has been made in pursuing a theoretical understanding of this matter. In order to shed some light on this topic, we perform, through a novel framework, an exhaustive analysis of the adequateness of the most commonly used performance scores to assess this complex scenario. We conclude that using unweighted Hölder means with exponent $p \leq 1$ to average the recalls of all the classes produces adequate scores which are capable of determining whether a classifier is competitive. Then, we review the major solutions presented in the class-imbalance literature. Since any learning task can be defined as an optimisation problem where a loss function, usually connected to a particular score, is minimised, our goal, here, is to find whether the learning tasks found in the literature are also oriented to maximise the previously detected adequate scores. We conclude that they usually maximise the unweighted Hölder mean with $p = 1$ (a-mean). Finally, we provide bounds on the values of the studied performance scores which guarantee a classifier with a higher recall than the random classifier in each and every class.

Roberto Santana, Alexander Mendiburu, Jose A. Lozano

NM-landscapes have been recently introduced as a class of tunable rugged models. They are a subset of the general interaction models where all the interactions are of order less or equal $M$. The Boltzmann distribution has been extensively applied in single-objective evolutionary algorithms to implement selection and study the theoretical properties of model-building algorithms. In this paper we propose the combination of the multi-objective NM-landscape model and the Boltzmann distribution to obtain Pareto-front approximations. We investigate the joint effect of the parameters of the NM-landscapes and the probabilistic factorizations in the shape of the Pareto front approximations.

Pedro Larrañaga, Ramon Etxeberria, Jose A. Lozano et al.

This paper shows how the Bayesian network paradigm can be used in order to solve combinatorial optimization problems. To do it some methods of structure learning from data and simulation of Bayesian networks are inserted inside Estimation of Distribution Algorithms (EDA). EDA are a new tool for evolutionary computation in which populations of individuals are created by estimation and simulation of the joint probability distribution of the selected individuals. We propose new approaches to EDA for combinatorial optimization based on the theory of probabilistic graphical models. Experimental results are also presented.