David Parker

Shili Sheng, David Parker, Lu Feng

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) have been widely used in many robotic applications for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. POMDP online planning algorithms such as Partially Observable Monte-Carlo Planning (POMCP) can solve very large POMDPs with the goal of maximizing the expected return. But the resulting policies cannot provide safety guarantees which are imperative for real-world safety-critical tasks (e.g., autonomous driving). In this work, we consider safety requirements represented as almost-sure reach-avoid specifications (i.e., the probability to reach a set of goal states is one and the probability to reach a set of unsafe states is zero). We compute shields that restrict unsafe actions which would violate the almost-sure reach-avoid specifications. We then integrate these shields into the POMCP algorithm for safe POMDP online planning. We propose four distinct shielding methods, differing in how the shields are computed and integrated, including factored variants designed to improve scalability. Experimental results on a set of benchmark domains demonstrate that the proposed shielding methods successfully guarantee safety (unlike the baseline POMCP without shielding) on large POMDPs, with negligible impact on the runtime for online planning.

David Parker

Probabilistic model checking is a technique for formal automated reasoning about software or hardware systems that operate in the context of uncertainty or stochasticity. It builds upon ideas and techniques from a diverse range of fields, from logic, automata and graph theory, to optimisation, numerical methods and control. In recent years, probabilistic model checking has also been extended to integrate ideas from game theory, notably using models such as stochastic games and solution concepts such as equilibria, to formally verify the interaction of multiple rational agents with distinct objectives. This provides a means to reason flexibly about agents acting in either an adversarial or a collaborative fashion, and opens up opportunities to tackle new problems within, for example, artificial intelligence, robotics and autonomous systems. In this paper, we summarise some of the advances in this area, and highlight applications for which they have already been used. We discuss how the strengths of probabilistic model checking apply, or have the potential to apply, to the multi-agent setting and outline some of the key challenges required to make further progress in this field.

Khang Vo Huynh, David Parker, Lu Feng

We present an optimization-based framework for robust permissive synthesis for Interval Markov Decision Processes (IMDPs), motivated by robotic decision-making under transition uncertainty. In many robotic systems, model inaccuracies and sensing noise lead to interval-valued transition probabilities. While robust IMDP synthesis typically yields a single policy and permissive synthesis assumes exact models, we show that robust permissive synthesis under interval uncertainty can be cast as a global mixed-integer linear program (MILP) that directly encodes robust Bellman constraints. The formulation maximizes a quantitative permissiveness metric (the number of enabled state-action pairs), while guaranteeing that every compliant strategy satisfies probabilistic reachability or expected reward specifications under all admissible transition realizations. To address the exponential complexity of vertex-based uncertainty representations, we derive a dualization-based encoding that eliminates explicit vertex enumeration and scales linearly with the number of successors. Experimental evaluation on four representative robotic benchmark domains demonstrates scalability to IMDPs with hundreds of thousands of states. The proposed framework provides a practical and general foundation for uncertainty-aware, flexibility-preserving controller synthesis in robotic systems.

Marnix Suilen, Thom Badings, Eline M. Bovy et al.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a standard model for sequential decision-making problems and are widely used across many scientific areas, including formal methods and artificial intelligence (AI). MDPs do, however, come with the restrictive assumption that the transition probabilities need to be precisely known. Robust MDPs (RMDPs) overcome this assumption by instead defining the transition probabilities to belong to some uncertainty set. We present a gentle survey on RMDPs, providing a tutorial covering their fundamentals. In particular, we discuss RMDP semantics and how to solve them by extending standard MDP methods such as value iteration and policy iteration. We also discuss how RMDPs relate to other models and how they are used in several contexts, including reinforcement learning and abstraction techniques. We conclude with some challenges for future work on RMDPs.

Rui Yan, Gabriel Santos, Gethin Norman et al.

We consider a variant of continuous-state partially-observable stochastic games with neural perception mechanisms and an asymmetric information structure. One agent has partial information, with the observation function implemented as a neural network, while the other agent is assumed to have full knowledge of the state. We present, for the first time, an efficient online method to compute an $\varepsilon$-minimax strategy profile, which requires only one linear program to be solved for each agent at every stage, instead of a complex estimation of opponent counterfactual values. For the partially-informed agent, we propose a continual resolving approach which uses lower bounds, pre-computed offline with heuristic search value iteration (HSVI), instead of opponent counterfactual values. This inherits the soundness of continual resolving at the cost of pre-computing the bound. For the fully-informed agent, we propose an inferred-belief strategy, where the agent maintains an inferred belief about the belief of the partially-informed agent based on (offline) upper bounds from HSVI, guaranteeing $\varepsilon$-distance to the value of the game at the initial belief known to both agents.

Yannik Schnitzer, Alessandro Abate, David Parker

Robust Markov decision processes (r-MDPs) extend MDPs by explicitly modelling epistemic uncertainty about transition dynamics. Learning r-MDPs from interactions with an unknown environment enables the synthesis of robust policies with provable (PAC) guarantees on performance, but this can require a large number of sample interactions. We propose novel methods for solving and learning r-MDPs based on factored state-space representations that leverage the independence between model uncertainty across system components. Although policy synthesis for factored r-MDPs leads to hard, non-convex optimisation problems, we show how to reformulate these into tractable linear programs. Building on these, we also propose methods to learn factored model representations directly. Our experimental results show that exploiting factored structure can yield dimensional gains in sample efficiency, producing more effective robust policies with tighter performance guarantees than state-of-the-art methods.

Tomáš Brázdil, Krishnendu Chatterjee, Martin Chmelik et al.

We present a general framework for applying learning algorithms and heuristical guidance to the verification of Markov decision processes (MDPs). The primary goal of our techniques is to improve performance by avoiding an exhaustive exploration of the state space, instead focussing on particularly relevant areas of the system, guided by heuristics. Our work builds on the previous results of Br{á}zdil et al., significantly extending it as well as refining several details and fixing errors. The presented framework focuses on probabilistic reachability, which is a core problem in verification, and is instantiated in two distinct scenarios. The first assumes that full knowledge of the MDP is available, in particular precise transition probabilities. It performs a heuristic-driven partial exploration of the model, yielding precise lower and upper bounds on the required probability. The second tackles the case where we may only sample the MDP without knowing the exact transition dynamics. Here, we obtain probabilistic guarantees, again in terms of both the lower and upper bounds, which provides efficient stopping criteria for the approximation. In particular, the latter is an extension of statistical model-checking (SMC) for unbounded properties in MDPs. In contrast to other related approaches, we do not restrict our attention to time-bounded (finite-horizon) or discounted properties, nor assume any particular structural properties of the MDP.

Edoardo Bacci, David Parker

Deep reinforcement learning has been successfully applied to many control tasks, but the application of such agents in safety-critical scenarios has been limited due to safety concerns. Rigorous testing of these controllers is challenging, particularly when they operate in probabilistic environments due to, for example, hardware faults or noisy sensors. We propose MOSAIC, an algorithm for measuring the safety of deep reinforcement learning agents in stochastic settings. Our approach is based on the iterative construction of a formal abstraction of a controller's execution in an environment, and leverages probabilistic model checking of Markov decision processes to produce probabilistic guarantees on safe behaviour over a finite time horizon. It produces bounds on the probability of safe operation of the controller for different initial configurations and identifies regions where correct behaviour can be guaranteed. We implement and evaluate our approach on agents trained for several benchmark control problems.

Fatma Faruq, Bruno Lacerda, Nick Hawes et al.

We propose novel techniques for task allocation and planning in multi-robot systems operating in uncertain environments. Task allocation is performed simultaneously with planning, which provides more detailed information about individual robot behaviour, but also exploits independence between tasks to do so efficiently. We use Markov decision processes to model robot behaviour and linear temporal logic to specify tasks and safety constraints. Building upon techniques and tools from formal verification, we show how to generate a sequence of multi-robot policies, iteratively refining them to reallocate tasks if individual robots fail, and providing probabilistic guarantees on the performance (and safe operation) of the team of robots under the resulting policy. We implement our approach and evaluate it on a benchmark multi-robot example.

Gethin Norman, David Parker, Xueyi Zou

We propose automated techniques for the verification and control of probabilistic real-time systems that are only partially observable. To formally model such systems, we define an extension of probabilistic timed automata in which local states are partially visible to an observer or controller. We give a probabilistic temporal logic that can express a range of quantitative properties of these models, relating to the probability of an event's occurrence or the expected value of a reward measure. We then propose techniques to either verify that such a property holds or to synthesise a controller for the model which makes it true. Our approach is based on an integer discretisation of the model's dense-time behaviour and a grid-based abstraction of the uncountable belief space induced by partial observability. The latter is necessarily approximate since the underlying problem is undecidable, however we show how both lower and upper bounds on numerical results can be generated. We illustrate the effectiveness of the approach by implementing it in the PRISM model checker and applying it to several case studies, from the domains of computer security and task scheduling.