Shuguang Yu

Yuchen Lu, Run Yang, Yichen Zhang et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable advances in mathematical and logical reasoning, yet statistics, as a distinct and integrative discipline, remains underexplored in benchmarking efforts. To address this gap, we introduce \textbf{StatEval}, the first comprehensive benchmark dedicated to statistics, spanning both breadth and depth across difficulty levels. StatEval consists of 13,817 foundational problems covering undergraduate and graduate curricula, together with 2374 research-level proof tasks extracted from leading journals. To construct the benchmark, we design a scalable multi-agent pipeline with human-in-the-loop validation that automates large-scale problem extraction, rewriting, and quality control, while ensuring academic rigor. We further propose a robust evaluation framework tailored to both computational and proof-based tasks, enabling fine-grained assessment of reasoning ability. Experimental results reveal that while closed-source models such as GPT5-mini achieve below 57\% on research-level problems, with open-source models performing significantly lower. These findings highlight the unique challenges of statistical reasoning and the limitations of current LLMs. We expect StatEval to serve as a rigorous benchmark for advancing statistical intelligence in large language models. All data and code are available on our web platform: https://stateval.github.io/.

Shuguang Yu, Fan Zhou, Yingjie Zhang et al.

This paper introduces a novel nonparametric method for estimating high-dimensional dynamic covariance matrices with multiple conditioning covariates, leveraging random forests and supported by robust theoretical guarantees. Unlike traditional static methods, our dynamic nonparametric covariance models effectively capture distributional heterogeneity. Furthermore, unlike kernel-smoothing methods, which are restricted to a single conditioning covariate, our approach accommodates multiple covariates in a fully nonparametric framework. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first method to use random forests for estimating high-dimensional dynamic covariance matrices. In high-dimensional settings, we establish uniform consistency theory, providing nonasymptotic error rates and model selection properties, even when the response dimension grows sub-exponentially with the sample size. These results hold uniformly across a range of conditioning variables. The method's effectiveness is demonstrated through simulations and a stock dataset analysis, highlighting its ability to model complex dynamics in high-dimensional scenarios.