Omer Gottesman

Kavosh Asadi, Shoham Sabach, Yao Liu et al. · stanford

We study the convergence behavior of the celebrated temporal-difference (TD) learning algorithm. By looking at the algorithm through the lens of optimization, we first argue that TD can be viewed as an iterative optimization algorithm where the function to be minimized changes per iteration. By carefully investigating the divergence displayed by TD on a classical counter example, we identify two forces that determine the convergent or divergent behavior of the algorithm. We next formalize our discovery in the linear TD setting with quadratic loss and prove that convergence of TD hinges on the interplay between these two forces. We extend this optimization perspective to prove convergence of TD in a much broader setting than just linear approximation and squared loss. Our results provide a theoretical explanation for the successful application of TD in reinforcement learning.

Cameron Allen, Aaron Kirtland, Ruo Yu Tao et al.

Reinforcement learning algorithms typically rely on the assumption that the environment dynamics and value function can be expressed in terms of a Markovian state representation. However, when state information is only partially observable, how can an agent learn such a state representation, and how can it detect when it has found one? We introduce a metric that can accomplish both objectives, without requiring access to -- or knowledge of -- an underlying, unobservable state space. Our metric, the $λ$-discrepancy, is the difference between two distinct temporal difference (TD) value estimates, each computed using TD($λ$) with a different value of $λ$. Since TD($λ{=}0$) makes an implicit Markov assumption and TD($λ{=}1$) does not, a discrepancy between these estimates is a potential indicator of a non-Markovian state representation. Indeed, we prove that the $λ$-discrepancy is exactly zero for all Markov decision processes and almost always non-zero for a broad class of partially observable environments. We also demonstrate empirically that, once detected, minimizing the $λ$-discrepancy can help with learning a memory function to mitigate the corresponding partial observability. We then train a reinforcement learning agent that simultaneously constructs two recurrent value networks with different $λ$ parameters and minimizes the difference between them as an auxiliary loss. The approach scales to challenging partially observable domains, where the resulting agent frequently performs significantly better (and never performs worse) than a baseline recurrent agent with only a single value network.

Abhishek Sharma, Sonali Parbhoo, Omer Gottesman et al.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) provides a way to learn a transition model of the environment, which can then be used to plan personalized policies for different patient cohorts and to understand the dynamics involved in the decision-making process. However, standard MBRL algorithms are either sensitive to changes in the reward function or achieve suboptimal performance on the task when the transition model is restricted. Motivated by the need to use simple and interpretable models in critical domains such as healthcare, we propose a novel robust decision-focused (RDF) algorithm that learns a transition model that achieves high returns while being robust to changes in the reward function. We demonstrate our RDF algorithm can be used with several model classes and planning algorithms. We also provide theoretical and empirical evidence, on a variety of simulators and real patient data, that RDF can learn simple yet effective models that can be used to plan personalized policies.

Kelly W. Zhang, Omer Gottesman, Finale Doshi-Velez

In the reinforcement learning literature, there are many algorithms developed for either Contextual Bandit (CB) or Markov Decision Processes (MDP) environments. However, when deploying reinforcement learning algorithms in the real world, even with domain expertise, it is often difficult to know whether it is appropriate to treat a sequential decision making problem as a CB or an MDP. In other words, do actions affect future states, or only the immediate rewards? Making the wrong assumption regarding the nature of the environment can lead to inefficient learning, or even prevent the algorithm from ever learning an optimal policy, even with infinite data. In this work we develop an online algorithm that uses a Bayesian hypothesis testing approach to learn the nature of the environment. Our algorithm allows practitioners to incorporate prior knowledge about whether the environment is that of a CB or an MDP, and effectively interpolate between classical CB and MDP-based algorithms to mitigate against the effects of misspecifying the environment. We perform simulations and demonstrate that in CB settings our algorithm achieves lower regret than MDP-based algorithms, while in non-bandit MDP settings our algorithm is able to learn the optimal policy, often achieving comparable regret to MDP-based algorithms.

Saket Tiwari, Omer Gottesman, George Konidaris

Advances in reinforcement learning have led to its successful application in complex tasks with continuous state and action spaces. Despite these advances in practice, most theoretical work pertains to finite state and action spaces. We propose building a theoretical understanding of continuous state and action spaces by employing a geometric lens. Central to our work is the idea that the transition dynamics induce a low dimensional manifold of reachable states embedded in the high-dimensional nominal state space. We prove that, under certain conditions, the dimensionality of this manifold is at most the dimensionality of the action space plus one. This is the first result of its kind, linking the geometry of the state space to the dimensionality of the action space. We empirically corroborate this upper bound for four MuJoCo environments. We further demonstrate the applicability of our result by learning a policy in this low dimensional representation. To do so we introduce an algorithm that learns a mapping to a low dimensional representation, as a narrow hidden layer of a deep neural network, in tandem with the policy using DDPG. Our experiments show that a policy learnt this way perform on par or better for four MuJoCo control suite tasks.

Kavosh Asadi, Rasool Fakoor, Omer Gottesman et al.

Deep reinforcement learning algorithms often use two networks for value function optimization: an online network, and a target network that tracks the online network with some delay. Using two separate networks enables the agent to hedge against issues that arise when performing bootstrapping. In this paper we endow two popular deep reinforcement learning algorithms, namely DQN and Rainbow, with updates that incentivize the online network to remain in the proximity of the target network. This improves the robustness of deep reinforcement learning in presence of noisy updates. The resultant agents, called DQN Pro and Rainbow Pro, exhibit significant performance improvements over their original counterparts on the Atari benchmark demonstrating the effectiveness of this simple idea in deep reinforcement learning. The code for our paper is available here: Github.com/amazon-research/fast-rl-with-slow-updates.

Saket Tiwari, Omer Gottesman, George Konidaris

Advances in reinforcement learning (RL) have led to its successful application in complex tasks with continuous state and action spaces. Despite these advances in practice, most theoretical work pertains to finite state and action spaces. We propose building a theoretical understanding of continuous state and action spaces by employing a geometric lens to understand the locally attained set of states. The set of all parametrised policies learnt through a semi-gradient based approach induces a set of attainable states in RL. We show that the training dynamics of a two-layer neural policy induce a low dimensional manifold of attainable states embedded in the high-dimensional nominal state space trained using an actor-critic algorithm. We prove that, under certain conditions, the dimensionality of this manifold is of the order of the dimensionality of the action space. This is the first result of its kind, linking the geometry of the state space to the dimensionality of the action space. We empirically corroborate this upper bound for four MuJoCo environments and also demonstrate the results in a toy environment with varying dimensionality. We also show the applicability of this theoretical result by introducing a local manifold learning layer to the policy and value function networks to improve the performance in control environments with very high degrees of freedom by changing one layer of the neural network to learn sparse representations.

Alvaro Maggiar, Sohrab Andaz, Akhil Bagaria et al.

This paper investigates the application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to classical inventory management problems, with a focus on practical implementation considerations. We apply a DRL algorithm based on DirectBackprop to several fundamental inventory management scenarios including multi-period systems with lost sales (with and without lead times), perishable inventory management, dual sourcing, and joint inventory procurement and removal. The DRL approach learns policies across products using only historical information that would be available in practice, avoiding unrealistic assumptions about demand distributions or access to distribution parameters. We demonstrate that our generic DRL implementation performs competitively against or outperforms established benchmarks and heuristics across these diverse settings, while requiring minimal parameter tuning. Through examination of the learned policies, we show that the DRL approach naturally captures many known structural properties of optimal policies derived from traditional operations research methods. To further improve policy performance and interpretability, we propose a Structure-Informed Policy Network technique that explicitly incorporates analytically-derived characteristics of optimal policies into the learning process. This approach can help interpretability and add robustness to the policy in out-of-sample performance, as we demonstrate in an example with realistic demand data. Finally, we provide an illustrative application of DRL in a non-stationary setting. Our work bridges the gap between data-driven learning and analytical insights in inventory management while maintaining practical applicability.

Hyunji Nam, Omer Gottesman, Amy Zhang et al.

Large language models (LLMs) built on existing reinforcement learning with human feedback (RLHF) frameworks typically optimize responses based on immediate turn-level human preferences. However, this approach falls short in multi-turn dialogue settings, such as online math tutoring. We propose a method to enhance LLM-based tutors by representing the dialogue history with a lower-dimensional latent state representation of a student and optimizing a long-term policy to determine high-level actions based on the latent state. The goal is to better align the tutor's behavior with the long-term objective of guiding the student towards solving a target math problem on their own. Our model is lightweight, requiring less computational resources than prior work of training the tutor policy end-to-end to directly output the tutor's next utterance. Our experiment results demonstrate that these modifications lead to improved long-term outcomes compared to prompting in LLM-simulated tutoring tasks.

Ramtin Keramati, Omer Gottesman, Leo Anthony Celi et al.

Off-policy policy evaluation methods for sequential decision making can be used to help identify if a proposed decision policy is better than a current baseline policy. However, a new decision policy may be better than a baseline policy for some individuals but not others. This has motivated a push towards personalization and accurate per-state estimates of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs). Given the limited data present in many important applications, individual predictions can come at a cost to accuracy and confidence in such predictions. We develop a method to balance the need for personalization with confident predictions by identifying subgroups where it is possible to confidently estimate the expected difference in a new decision policy relative to a baseline. We propose a novel loss function that accounts for uncertainty during the subgroup partitioning phase. In experiments, we show that our method can be used to form accurate predictions of HTEs where other methods struggle.

Omer Gottesman, Kavosh Asadi, Cameron Allen et al.

Principled decision-making in continuous state--action spaces is impossible without some assumptions. A common approach is to assume Lipschitz continuity of the Q-function. We show that, unfortunately, this property fails to hold in many typical domains. We propose a new coarse-grained smoothness definition that generalizes the notion of Lipschitz continuity, is more widely applicable, and allows us to compute significantly tighter bounds on Q-functions, leading to improved learning. We provide a theoretical analysis of our new smoothness definition, and discuss its implications and impact on control and exploration in continuous domains.

Simon P. Shen, Yecheng Jason Ma, Omer Gottesman et al.

Importance sampling-based estimators for off-policy evaluation (OPE) are valued for their simplicity, unbiasedness, and reliance on relatively few assumptions. However, the variance of these estimators is often high, especially when trajectories are of different lengths. In this work, we introduce Omitting-States-Irrelevant-to-Return Importance Sampling (OSIRIS), an estimator which reduces variance by strategically omitting likelihood ratios associated with certain states. We formalize the conditions under which OSIRIS is unbiased and has lower variance than ordinary importance sampling, and we demonstrate these properties empirically.

Cameron Allen, Neev Parikh, Omer Gottesman et al.

A fundamental assumption of reinforcement learning in Markov decision processes (MDPs) is that the relevant decision process is, in fact, Markov. However, when MDPs have rich observations, agents typically learn by way of an abstract state representation, and such representations are not guaranteed to preserve the Markov property. We introduce a novel set of conditions and prove that they are sufficient for learning a Markov abstract state representation. We then describe a practical training procedure that combines inverse model estimation and temporal contrastive learning to learn an abstraction that approximately satisfies these conditions. Our novel training objective is compatible with both online and offline training: it does not require a reward signal, but agents can capitalize on reward information when available. We empirically evaluate our approach on a visual gridworld domain and a set of continuous control benchmarks. Our approach learns representations that capture the underlying structure of the domain and lead to improved sample efficiency over state-of-the-art deep reinforcement learning with visual features -- often matching or exceeding the performance achieved with hand-designed compact state information.

Samuel Håkansson, Viktor Lindblom, Omer Gottesman et al.

Finding an effective medical treatment often requires a search by trial and error. Making this search more efficient by minimizing the number of unnecessary trials could lower both costs and patient suffering. We formalize this problem as learning a policy for finding a near-optimal treatment in a minimum number of trials using a causal inference framework. We give a model-based dynamic programming algorithm which learns from observational data while being robust to unmeasured confounding. To reduce time complexity, we suggest a greedy algorithm which bounds the near-optimality constraint. The methods are evaluated on synthetic and real-world healthcare data and compared to model-free reinforcement learning. We find that our methods compare favorably to the model-free baseline while offering a more transparent trade-off between search time and treatment efficacy.

Omer Gottesman, Joseph Futoma, Yao Liu et al.

Off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning offers the chance of using observational data to improve future outcomes in domains such as healthcare and education, but safe deployment in high stakes settings requires ways of assessing its validity. Traditional measures such as confidence intervals may be insufficient due to noise, limited data and confounding. In this paper we develop a method that could serve as a hybrid human-AI system, to enable human experts to analyze the validity of policy evaluation estimates. This is accomplished by highlighting observations in the data whose removal will have a large effect on the OPE estimate, and formulating a set of rules for choosing which ones to present to domain experts for validation. We develop methods to compute exactly the influence functions for fitted Q-evaluation with two different function classes: kernel-based and linear least squares, as well as importance sampling methods. Experiments on medical simulations and real-world intensive care unit data demonstrate that our method can be used to identify limitations in the evaluation process and make evaluation more robust.

Omer Gottesman, Weiwei Pan, Finale Doshi-Velez

Tensor decomposition methods allow us to learn the parameters of latent variable models through decomposition of low-order moments of data. A significant limitation of these algorithms is that there exists no general method to regularize them, and in the past regularization has mostly been performed using bespoke modifications to the algorithms, tailored for the particular form of the desired regularizer. We present a general method of regularizing tensor decomposition methods which can be used for any likelihood model that is learnable using tensor decomposition methods and any differentiable regularization function by supplementing the training data with pseudo-data. The pseudo-data is optimized to balance two terms: being as close as possible to the true data and enforcing the desired regularization. On synthetic, semi-synthetic and real data, we demonstrate that our method can improve inference accuracy and regularize for a broad range of goals including transfer learning, sparsity, interpretability, and orthogonality of the learned parameters.

Omer Gottesman, Yao Liu, Scott Sussex et al.

We consider a model-based approach to perform batch off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning. Our method takes a mixture-of-experts approach to combine parametric and non-parametric models of the environment such that the final value estimate has the least expected error. We do so by first estimating the local accuracy of each model and then using a planner to select which model to use at every time step as to minimize the return error estimate along entire trajectories. Across a variety of domains, our mixture-based approach outperforms the individual models alone as well as state-of-the-art importance sampling-based estimators.

Xuefeng Peng, Yi Ding, David Wihl et al.

Sepsis is the leading cause of mortality in the ICU. It is challenging to manage because individual patients respond differently to treatment. Thus, tailoring treatment to the individual patient is essential for the best outcomes. In this paper, we take steps toward this goal by applying a mixture-of-experts framework to personalize sepsis treatment. The mixture model selectively alternates between neighbor-based (kernel) and deep reinforcement learning (DRL) experts depending on patient's current history. On a large retrospective cohort, this mixture-based approach outperforms physician, kernel only, and DRL-only experts.

Aniruddh Raghu, Omer Gottesman, Yao Liu et al.

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating a behaviour policy for use in Off-Policy Policy Evaluation (OPE) when the true behaviour policy is unknown. Via a series of empirical studies, we demonstrate how accurate OPE is strongly dependent on the calibration of estimated behaviour policy models: how precisely the behaviour policy is estimated from data. We show how powerful parametric models such as neural networks can result in highly uncalibrated behaviour policy models on a real-world medical dataset, and illustrate how a simple, non-parametric, k-nearest neighbours model produces better calibrated behaviour policy estimates and can be used to obtain superior importance sampling-based OPE estimates.

Omer Gottesman, Fredrik Johansson, Joshua Meier et al.

Much attention has been devoted recently to the development of machine learning algorithms with the goal of improving treatment policies in healthcare. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a sub-field within machine learning that is concerned with learning how to make sequences of decisions so as to optimize long-term effects. Already, RL algorithms have been proposed to identify decision-making strategies for mechanical ventilation, sepsis management and treatment of schizophrenia. However, before implementing treatment policies learned by black-box algorithms in high-stakes clinical decision problems, special care must be taken in the evaluation of these policies. In this document, our goal is to expose some of the subtleties associated with evaluating RL algorithms in healthcare. We aim to provide a conceptual starting point for clinical and computational researchers to ask the right questions when designing and evaluating algorithms for new ways of treating patients. In the following, we describe how choices about how to summarize a history, variance of statistical estimators, and confounders in more ad-hoc measures can result in unreliable, even misleading estimates of the quality of a treatment policy. We also provide suggestions for mitigating these effects---for while there is much promise for mining observational health data to uncover better treatment policies, evaluation must be performed thoughtfully.

Yao Liu, Omer Gottesman, Aniruddh Raghu et al.

We study the problem of off-policy policy evaluation (OPPE) in RL. In contrast to prior work, we consider how to estimate both the individual policy value and average policy value accurately. We draw inspiration from recent work in causal reasoning, and propose a new finite sample generalization error bound for value estimates from MDP models. Using this upper bound as an objective, we develop a learning algorithm of an MDP model with a balanced representation, and show that our approach can yield substantially lower MSE in common synthetic benchmarks and a HIV treatment simulation domain.

Omer Gottesman, Weiwei Pan, Finale Doshi-Velez

Tensor decomposition methods are popular tools for learning latent variables given only lower-order moments of the data. However, the standard assumption is that we have sufficient data to estimate these moments to high accuracy. In this work, we consider the case in which certain dimensions of the data are not always observed---common in applied settings, where not all measurements may be taken for all observations---resulting in moment estimates of varying quality. We derive a weighted tensor decomposition approach that is computationally as efficient as the non-weighted approach, and demonstrate that it outperforms methods that do not appropriately leverage these less-observed dimensions.