Juan G. Restrepo

Per Sebastian Skardal, Juan G. Restrepo

Identifying disturbances in network-coupled dynamical systems without knowledge of the disturbances or underlying dynamics is a problem with a wide range of applications. For example, one might want to know which nodes in the network are being disturbed and identify the type of disturbance. Here we present a model-free method based on machine learning to identify such unknown disturbances based only on prior observations of the system when forced by a known training function. We find that this method is able to identify the locations and properties of many different types of unknown disturbances using a variety of known forcing functions. We illustrate our results both with linear and nonlinear disturbances using food web and neuronal activity models. Finally, we discuss how to scale our method to large networks.

Juan G. Restrepo, Clayton P. Byers, Per Sebastian Skardal

Identifying and suppressing unknown disturbances to dynamical systems is a problem with applications in many different fields. Here we present a model-free method to identify and suppress an unknown disturbance to an unknown system based only on previous observations of the system under the influence of a known forcing function. We find that, under very mild restrictions on the training function, our method is able to robustly identify and suppress a large class of unknown disturbances. We illustrate our scheme with the identification of both deterministic and stochastic unknown disturbances to an analog electric chaotic circuit and with numerical examples where a chaotic disturbance to various chaotic dynamical systems is identified and suppressed.

Amitava Banerjee, Jaideep Pathak, Rajarshi Roy et al.

We introduce and test a general machine-learning-based technique for the inference of short term causal dependence between state variables of an unknown dynamical system from time series measurements of its state variables. Our technique leverages the results of a machine learning process for short time prediction to achieve our goal. The basic idea is to use the machine learning to estimate the elements of the Jacobian matrix of the dynamical flow along an orbit. The type of machine learning that we employ is reservoir computing. We present numerical tests on link inference of a network of interacting dynamical nodes. It is seen that dynamical noise can greatly enhance the effectiveness of our technique, while observational noise degrades the effectiveness. We believe that the competition between these two opposing types of noise will be the key factor determining the success of causal inference in many of the most important application situations.