Maximilian Muhn

Alex Kim, Maximilian Muhn, Valeri Nikolaev

We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can successfully perform financial statement analysis in a way similar to a professional human analyst. We provide standardized and anonymous financial statements to GPT4 and instruct the model to analyze them to determine the direction of firms' future earnings. Even without narrative or industry-specific information, the LLM outperforms financial analysts in its ability to predict earnings changes directionally. The LLM exhibits a relative advantage over human analysts in situations when the analysts tend to struggle. Furthermore, we find that the prediction accuracy of the LLM is on par with a narrowly trained state-of-the-art ML model. LLM prediction does not stem from its training memory. Instead, we find that the LLM generates useful narrative insights about a company's future performance. Lastly, our trading strategies based on GPT's predictions yield a higher Sharpe ratio and alphas than strategies based on other models. Our results suggest that LLMs may take a central role in analysis and decision-making.

Alex Kim, Maximilian Muhn, Valeri Nikolaev

Generative AI tools such as ChatGPT can fundamentally change the way investors process information. We probe the economic usefulness of these tools in summarizing complex corporate disclosures using the stock market as a laboratory. The unconstrained summaries are remarkably shorter compared to the originals, whereas their information content is amplified. When a document has a positive (negative) sentiment, its summary becomes more positive (negative). Importantly, the summaries are more effective at explaining stock market reactions to the disclosed information. Motivated by these findings, we propose a measure of information ``bloat." We show that bloated disclosure is associated with adverse capital market consequences, such as lower price efficiency and higher information asymmetry. Finally, we show that the model is effective at constructing targeted summaries that identify firms' (non-)financial performance. Collectively, our results indicate that generative AI adds considerable value for investors with information processing constraints.

Alex Kim, Maximilian Muhn, Valeri Nikolaev

We explore the value of generative AI tools, such as ChatGPT, in helping investors uncover dimensions of corporate risk. We develop and validate firm-level measures of risk exposure to political, climate, and AI-related risks. Using the GPT 3.5 model to generate risk summaries and assessments from the context provided by earnings call transcripts, we show that GPT-based measures possess significant information content and outperform the existing risk measures in predicting (abnormal) firm-level volatility and firms' choices such as investment and innovation. Importantly, information in risk assessments dominates that in risk summaries, establishing the value of general AI knowledge. We also find that generative AI is effective at detecting emerging risks, such as AI risk, which has soared in recent quarters. Our measures perform well both within and outside the GPT's training window and are priced in equity markets. Taken together, an AI-based approach to risk measurement provides useful insights to users of corporate disclosures at a low cost.