Tianchi Qiao

Wanyuan Wang, Tianchi Qiao, Jinming Ma et al.

Efficient traffic signal control (TSC) has been one of the most useful ways for reducing urban road congestion. Key to the challenge of TSC includes 1) the essential of real-time signal decision, 2) the complexity in traffic dynamics, and 3) the network-level coordination. Recent efforts that applied reinforcement learning (RL) methods can query policies by mapping the traffic state to the signal decision in real-time, however, is inadequate for unexpected traffic flows. By observing real traffic information, online planning methods can compute the signal decisions in a responsive manner. We propose an explicit multiagent coordination (EMC)-based online planning methods that can satisfy adaptive, real-time and network-level TSC. By multiagent, we model each intersection as an autonomous agent, and the coordination efficiency is modeled by a cost (i.e., congestion index) function between neighbor intersections. By network-level coordination, each agent exchanges messages with respect to cost function with its neighbors in a fully decentralized manner. By real-time, the message passing procedure can interrupt at any time when the real time limit is reached and agents select the optimal signal decisions according to the current message. Moreover, we prove our EMC method can guarantee network stability by borrowing ideas from transportation domain. Finally, we test our EMC method in both synthetic and real road network datasets. Experimental results are encouraging: compared to RL and conventional transportation baselines, our EMC method performs reasonably well in terms of adapting to real-time traffic dynamics, minimizing vehicle travel time and scalability to city-scale road networks.

Yuanyuan Jiang, Rui Ding, Tianchi Qiao et al.

Predictive analytics aims to build machine learning models to predict behavior patterns and use predictions to guide decision-making. Predictive analytics is human involved, thus the machine learning model is preferred to be interpretable. In literature, Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is a standard for interpretability. However, due to the one-to-many and many-to-one phenomena which appear commonly in real-world scenarios, existing GAMs have limitations to serve predictive analytics in terms of both accuracy and training efficiency. In this paper, we propose FXAM (Fast and eXplainable Additive Model), a unified and fast interpretable model for predictive analytics. FXAM extends GAM's modeling capability with a unified additive model for numerical, categorical, and temporal features. FXAM conducts a novel training procedure called Three-Stage Iteration (TSI). TSI corresponds to learning over numerical, categorical, and temporal features respectively. Each stage learns a local optimum by fixing the parameters of other stages. We design joint learning over categorical features and partial learning over temporal features to achieve high accuracy and training efficiency. We prove that TSI is guaranteed to converge to the global optimum. We further propose a set of optimization techniques to speed up FXAM's training algorithm to meet the needs of interactive analysis. Thorough evaluations conducted on diverse data sets verify that FXAM significantly outperforms existing GAMs in terms of training speed, and modeling categorical and temporal features. In terms of interpretability, we compare FXAM with the typical post-hoc approach XGBoost+SHAP on two real-world scenarios, which shows the superiority of FXAM's inherent interpretability for predictive analytics.