S. C. Kou

Yongkai Chen, Samuel WK Wong, SC Kou

The remarkable success of AlphaFold2 in providing accurate atomic-level prediction of protein structures from their amino acid sequence has transformed approaches to the protein folding problem. However, its core paradigm of mapping one sequence to one structure may only be appropriate for single-fold proteins with one stable conformation. Metamorphic proteins, which can adopt multiple distinct conformations, have conformational diversity that cannot be adequately modeled by AlphaFold2. Hence, classifying whether a given protein is metamorphic or single-fold remains a critical challenge for both laboratory experiments and computational methods. To address this challenge, we developed a novel classification framework by re-purposing AlphaFold2 to generate conformational ensembles via a multiple sequence alignment sampling method. From these ensembles, we extract a comprehensive set of features characterizing the conformational ensemble's modality and structural dispersion. A random forest classifier trained on a carefully curated benchmark dataset of known metamorphic and single-fold proteins achieves a mean AUC of 0.869 with cross-validation, demonstrating the effectiveness of our integrated approach. Furthermore, by applying our classifier to 600 randomly sampled proteins from the Protein Data Bank, we identified several potential metamorphic protein candidates -- including the 40S ribosomal protein S30, whose conformational change is crucial for its secondary function in antimicrobial defense. By combining AI-driven protein structure prediction with statistical learning, our work provides a powerful new approach for discovering metamorphic proteins and deepens our understanding of their role in their molecular function.

Skyler Wu, Shihao Yang, S. C. Kou

In the era of AI, neural networks have become increasingly popular for modeling, inference, and prediction, largely due to their potential for universal approximation. With the proliferation of such deep learning models, a question arises: are leaner statistical methods still relevant? To shed insight on this question, we employ the mechanistic nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) inverse problem as a testbed, using physics-informed neural network (PINN) as a representative of the deep learning paradigm and manifold-constrained Gaussian process inference (MAGI) as a representative of statistically principled methods. Through case studies involving the SEIR model from epidemiology and the Lorenz model from chaotic dynamics, we demonstrate that statistical methods are far from obsolete, especially when working with sparse and noisy observations. On tasks such as parameter inference and trajectory reconstruction, statistically principled methods consistently achieve lower bias and variance, while using far fewer parameters and requiring less hyperparameter tuning. Statistical methods can also decisively outperform deep learning models on out-of-sample future prediction, where the absence of relevant data often leads overparameterized models astray. Additionally, we find that statistically principled approaches are more robust to accumulation of numerical imprecision and can represent the underlying system more faithful to the true governing ODEs.

Shihao Yang, Mauricio Santillana, S. C. Kou

Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search-based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people's online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions.