Maxim Dolgov

Faris Janjoš, Marcel Hallgarten, Anthony Knittel et al.

The CVAE is one of the most widely-used models in trajectory prediction for AD. It captures the interplay between a driving context and its ground-truth future into a probabilistic latent space and uses it to produce predictions. In this paper, we challenge key components of the CVAE. We leverage recent advances in the space of the VAE, the foundation of the CVAE, which show that a simple change in the sampling procedure can greatly benefit performance. We find that unscented sampling, which draws samples from any learned distribution in a deterministic manner, can naturally be better suited to trajectory prediction than potentially dangerous random sampling. We go further and offer additional improvements including a more structured Gaussian mixture latent space, as well as a novel, potentially more expressive way to do inference with CVAEs. We show wide applicability of our models by evaluating them on the INTERACTION prediction dataset, outperforming the state of the art, as well as at the task of image modeling on the CelebA dataset, outperforming the baseline vanilla CVAE. Code is available at https://github.com/boschresearch/cuae-prediction.

Jörg Fischer, Achim Hekler, Maxim Dolgov et al.

This paper addresses the problem of sequence-based controller design for Networked Control Systems (NCS), where control inputs and measurements are transmitted over TCP-like network connections that are subject to stochastic packet losses and time-varying packet delays. At every time step, the controller sends a sequence of predicted control inputs to the actuator in addition to the current control input. In this sequence-based setup, we derive an optimal solution to the Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) control problem and prove that the separation principle holds. Simulations demonstrate the improved performance of this optimal controller compared to other sequence-based approaches.

Faris Janjoš, Max Keller, Maxim Dolgov et al.

Accurate vehicle trajectory prediction is an unsolved problem in autonomous driving with various open research questions. State-of-the-art approaches regress trajectories either in a one-shot or step-wise manner. Although one-shot approaches are usually preferred for their simplicity, they relinquish powerful self-supervision schemes that can be constructed by chaining multiple time-steps. We address this issue by proposing a middle-ground where multiple trajectory segments are chained together. Our proposed Multi-Branch Self-Supervised Predictor receives additional training on new predictions starting at intermediate future segments. In addition, the model 'imagines' the latent context and 'predicts the past' while combining multi-modal trajectories in a tree-like manner. We deliberately keep aspects such as interaction and environment modeling simplistic and nevertheless achieve competitive results on the INTERACTION dataset. Furthermore, we investigate the sparsely explored uncertainty estimation of deterministic predictors. We find positive correlations between the prediction error and two proposed metrics, which might pave way for determining prediction confidence.

Faris Janjoš, Lars Rosenbaum, Maxim Dolgov et al.

The Variational Autoencoder (VAE) is a seminal approach in deep generative modeling with latent variables. Interpreting its reconstruction process as a nonlinear transformation of samples from the latent posterior distribution, we apply the Unscented Transform (UT) -- a well-known distribution approximation used in the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) from the field of filtering. A finite set of statistics called sigma points, sampled deterministically, provides a more informative and lower-variance posterior representation than the ubiquitous noise-scaling of the reparameterization trick, while ensuring higher-quality reconstruction. We further boost the performance by replacing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence with the Wasserstein distribution metric that allows for a sharper posterior. Inspired by the two components, we derive a novel, deterministic-sampling flavor of the VAE, the Unscented Autoencoder (UAE), trained purely with regularization-like terms on the per-sample posterior. We empirically show competitive performance in Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) scores over closely-related models, in addition to a lower training variance than the VAE.

Faris Janjoš, Maxim Dolgov, J. Marius Zöllner

In this work, we present a novel multi-modal multi-agent trajectory prediction architecture, focusing on map and interaction modeling using graph representation. For the purposes of map modeling, we capture rich topological structure into vector-based star graphs, which enable an agent to directly attend to relevant regions along polylines that are used to represent the map. We denote this architecture StarNet, and integrate it in a single-agent prediction setting. As the main result, we extend this architecture to joint scene-level prediction, which produces multiple agents' predictions simultaneously. The key idea in joint-StarNet is integrating the awareness of one agent in its own reference frame with how it is perceived from the points of view of other agents. We achieve this via masked self-attention. Both proposed architectures are built on top of the action-space prediction framework introduced in our previous work, which ensures kinematically feasible trajectory predictions. We evaluate the methods on the interaction-rich inD and INTERACTION datasets, with both StarNet and joint-StarNet achieving improvements over state of the art.

Faris Janjoš, Maxim Dolgov, J. Marius Zöllner

Making informed driving decisions requires reliable prediction of other vehicles' trajectories. In this paper, we present a novel learned multi-modal trajectory prediction architecture for automated driving. It achieves kinematically feasible predictions by casting the learning problem into the space of accelerations and steering angles -- by performing action-space prediction, we can leverage valuable model knowledge. Additionally, the dimensionality of the action manifold is lower than that of the state manifold, whose intrinsically correlated states are more difficult to capture in a learned manner. For the purpose of action-space prediction, we present the simple Feed-Forward Action-Space Prediction (FFW-ASP) architecture. Then, we build on this notion and introduce the novel Self-Supervised Action-Space Prediction (SSP-ASP) architecture that outputs future environment context features in addition to trajectories. A key element in the self-supervised architecture is that, based on an observed action history and past context features, future context features are predicted prior to future trajectories. The proposed methods are evaluated on real-world datasets containing urban intersections and roundabouts, and show accurate predictions, outperforming state-of-the-art for kinematically feasible predictions in several prediction metrics.

Maxim Dolgov, Uwe D. Hanebeck

Gaussian processes constitute a very powerful and well-understood method for non-parametric regression and classification. In the classical framework, the training data consists of deterministic vector-valued inputs and the corresponding (noisy) measurements whose joint distribution is assumed to be Gaussian. In many practical applications, however, the inputs are either noisy, i.e., each input is a vector-valued sample from an unknown probability distribution, or the probability distributions are the inputs. In this paper, we address Gaussian process regression with inputs given in form of probability distributions and propose a framework that is based on distances between such inputs. To this end, we review different admissible distance measures and provide a numerical example that demonstrates our framework.

Maxim Dolgov, Uwe D. Hanebeck

In this paper, we consider stochastic optimal control of Markov Jump Linear Systems with state feedback but without observation of the jumping parameter. The proposed control law is assumed to be linear with constant gains that can be obtained from the necessary optimality conditions using an iterative algorithm. The proposed approach is demonstrated in a numerical example.