Abeer Dyoub

Ivan Letteri, Giuseppe Della Penna, Giovanni De Gasperis et al.

In general, traders test their trading strategies by applying them on the historical market data (backtesting), and then apply to the future trades the strategy that achieved the maximum profit on such past data. In this paper, we propose a new trading strategy, called DNN-forwardtesting, that determines the strategy to apply by testing it on the possible future predicted by a deep neural network that has been designed to perform stock price forecasts and trained with the market historical data. In order to generate such an historical dataset, we first perform an exploratory data analysis on a set of ten securities and, in particular, analize their volatility through a novel k-means-based procedure. Then, we restrict the dataset to a small number of assets with the same volatility coefficient and use such data to train a deep feed-forward neural network that forecasts the prices for the next 30 days of open stocks market. Finally, our trading system calculates the most effective technical indicator by applying it to the DNNs predictions and uses such indicator to guide its trades. The results confirm that neural networks outperform classical statistical techniques when performing such forecasts, and their predictions allow to select a trading strategy that, when applied to the real future, increases Expectancy, Sharpe, Sortino, and Calmar ratios with respect to the strategy selected through traditional backtesting.

Abeer Dyoub, Francesca A. Lisi

In a previous work, we introduced the fuzzy Ethical Decision-Making framework (fEDM), a risk-based ethical reasoning architecture grounded in fuzzy logic. The original model combined a fuzzy Ethical Risk Assessment module (fERA) with ethical decision rules, enabled formal structural verification through Fuzzy Petri Nets (FPNs), and validated outputs against a single normative referent. Although this approach ensured formal soundness and decision consistency, it did not fully address two critical challenges: principled explainability of decisions and robustness under ethical pluralism. In this paper, we extend fEDM in two major directions. First, we introduce an Explainability and Traceability Module (ETM) that explicitly links each ethical decision rule to the underlying moral principles and computes a weighted principle-contribution profile for every recommended action. This enables transparent, auditable explanations that expose not only what decision was made but why, and on the basis of which principles. Second, we replace single-referent validation with a pluralistic semantic validation framework that evaluates decisions against multiple stakeholder referents, each encoding distinct principle priorities and risk tolerances. This shift allows principled disagreement to be formally represented rather than suppressed, thus increasing robustness and contextual sensitivity. The resulting extended fEDM, called fEDM+, preserves formal verifiability while achieving enhanced interpretability and stakeholder-aware validation, making it suitable as an oversight and governance layer for ethically sensitive AI systems.

Abeer Dyoub, Ivan Letteri

In this study, we investigated the application of bio-inspired optimization algorithms, including Genetic Algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, and Whale Optimization Algorithm, for feature selection in chronic disease prediction. The primary goal was to enhance the predictive accuracy of models streamline data dimensionality, and make predictions more interpretable and actionable. The research encompassed a comparative analysis of the three bio-inspired feature selection approaches across diverse chronic diseases, including diabetes, cancer, kidney, and cardiovascular diseases. Performance metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and f1 score are used to assess the effectiveness of the algorithms in reducing the number of features needed for accurate classification. The results in general demonstrate that the bio-inspired optimization algorithms are effective in reducing the number of features required for accurate classification. However, there have been variations in the performance of the algorithms on different datasets. The study highlights the importance of data pre-processing and cleaning in ensuring the reliability and effectiveness of the analysis. This study contributes to the advancement of predictive analytics in the realm of chronic diseases. The potential impact of this work extends to early intervention, precision medicine, and improved patient outcomes, providing new avenues for the delivery of healthcare services tailored to individual needs. The findings underscore the potential benefits of using bio-inspired optimization algorithms for feature selection in chronic disease prediction, offering valuable insights for improving healthcare outcomes.

Abeer Dyoub, Francesca A. Lisi

The ontological and epistemic complexities inherent in the moral domain make it challenging to establish clear standards for evaluating the performance of a moral machine. In this paper, we present a formal method to describe Ethical Decision Making models based on ethical risk assessment. Then, we show how these models that are specified as fuzzy rules can be verified and validated using fuzzy Petri nets. A case study from the medical field is considered to illustrate the proposed approach.

Abeer Dyoub, Ivan Letteri, Francesca A. Lisi

The emergence of Symbiotic AI (SAI) introduces new challenges to ethical decision-making as it deepens human-AI collaboration. As symbiosis grows, AI systems pose greater ethical risks, including harm to human rights and trust. Ethical Risk Assessment (ERA) thus becomes crucial for guiding decisions that minimize such risks. However, ERA is hindered by uncertainty, vagueness, and incomplete information, and morality itself is context-dependent and imprecise. This motivates the need for a flexible, transparent, yet robust framework for ERA. Our work supports ethical decision-making by quantitatively assessing and prioritizing multiple ethical risks so that artificial agents can select actions aligned with human values and acceptable risk levels. We introduce ff4ERA, a fuzzy framework that integrates Fuzzy Logic, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), and Certainty Factors (CF) to quantify ethical risks via an Ethical Risk Score (ERS) for each risk type. The final ERS combines the FAHP-derived weight, propagated CF, and risk level. The framework offers a robust mathematical approach for collaborative ERA modeling and systematic, step-by-step analysis. A case study confirms that ff4ERA yields context-sensitive, ethically meaningful risk scores reflecting both expert input and sensor-based evidence. Risk scores vary consistently with relevant factors while remaining robust to unrelated inputs. Local sensitivity analysis shows predictable, mostly monotonic behavior across perturbations, and global Sobol analysis highlights the dominant influence of expert-defined weights and certainty factors, validating the model design. Overall, the results demonstrate ff4ERA ability to produce interpretable, traceable, and risk-aware ethical assessments, enabling what-if analyses and guiding designers in calibrating membership functions and expert judgments for reliable ethical decision support.

Paolo Baldi, Fabio Aurelio D'Asaro, Abeer Dyoub et al.

We augment Assumption Based Argumentation (ABA for short) with weighted argumentation. In a nutshell, we assign weights to arguments and then derive the weight of attacks between ABA arguments. We illustrate our proposal through running examples in the field of ethical reasoning, and present an implementation based on Answer Set Programming.

Ivan Letteri, Giuseppe Della Penna, Giovanni De Gasperis et al.

Stock market forecasting is a lucrative field of interest with promising profits but not without its difficulties and for some people could be even causes of failure. Financial markets by their nature are complex, non-linear and chaotic, which implies that accurately predicting the prices of assets that are part of it becomes very complicated. In this paper we propose a stock trading system having as main core the feed-forward deep neural networks (DNN) to predict the price for the next 30 days of open market, of the shares issued by Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) in the stock market of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The system we have elaborated calculates the most effective technical indicator, applying it to the predictions computed by the DNNs, for generating trades. The results showed an increase in values such as Expectancy Ratio of 2.112% of profitable trades with Sharpe, Sortino, and Calmar Ratios of 2.194, 3.340, and 12.403 respectively. As a verification, we adopted a backtracking simulation module in our system, which maps trades to actual test data consisting of the last 30 days of open market on the ANF asset. Overall, the results were promising bringing a total profit factor of 3.2% in just one month from a very modest budget of $100. This was possible because the system reduced the number of trades by choosing the most effective and efficient trades, saving on commissions and slippage costs.

Abeer Dyoub, Stefania Costantini, Ivan Letteri et al.

Dialogue Systems are tools designed for various practical purposes concerning human-machine interaction. These systems should be built on ethical foundations because their behavior may heavily influence a user (think especially about children). The primary objective of this paper is to present the architecture and prototype implementation of a Multi Agent System (MAS) designed for ethical monitoring and evaluation of a dialogue system. A prototype application, for monitoring and evaluation of chatting agents' (human/artificial) ethical behavior in an online customer service chat point w.r.t their institution/company's codes of ethics and conduct, is developed and presented. Future work and open issues with this research are discussed.

Ivan Letteri, Antonio Di Cecco, Abeer Dyoub et al.

Despite the enormous amount of data, particular events of interest can still be quite rare. Classification of rare events is a common problem in many domains, such as fraudulent transactions, malware traffic analysis and network intrusion detection. Many studies have been developed for malware detection using machine learning approaches on various datasets, but as far as we know only the MTA-KDD'19 dataset has the peculiarity of updating the representative set of malicious traffic on a daily basis. This daily updating is the added value of the dataset, but it translates into a potential due to the class imbalance problem that the RRw-Optimized MTA-KDD'19 will occur. We capture difficulties of class distribution in real datasets by considering four types of minority class examples: safe, borderline, rare and outliers. In this work, we developed two versions of Generative Silhouette Resampling 1-Nearest Neighbour (G1Nos) oversampling algorithms for dealing with class imbalance problem. The first module of G1Nos algorithms performs a coefficient-based instance selection silhouette identifying the critical threshold of Imbalance Degree. (ID), the second module generates synthetic samples using a SMOTE-like oversampling algorithm. The balancing of the classes is done by our G1Nos algorithms to re-establish the proportions between the two classes of the used dataset. The experimental results show that our oversampling algorithm work better than the other two SOTA methodologies in all the metrics considered.

Abeer Dyoub, Stefania Costantini, Francesca A. Lisi

Transparency is a key requirement for ethical machines. Verified ethical behavior is not enough to establish justified trust in autonomous intelligent agents: it needs to be supported by the ability to explain decisions. Logic Programming (LP) has a great potential for developing such perspective ethical systems, as in fact logic rules are easily comprehensible by humans. Furthermore, LP is able to model causality, which is crucial for ethical decision making.

Abeer Dyoub, Stefania Costantini, Francesca A. Lisi

Autonomous intelligent agents are playing increasingly important roles in our lives. They contain information about us and start to perform tasks on our behalves. Chatbots are an example of such agents that need to engage in a complex conversations with humans. Thus, we need to ensure that they behave ethically. In this work we propose a hybrid logic-based approach for ethical chatbots.