The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite and its successor GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) provide valuable and accurate observations of terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSAs) at a global scale. However, there is an approximately one-year observation gap of TWSAs between GRACE and GRACE-FO. This poses a challenge for practical applications, as discontinuity in the TWSA observations may introduce significant biases and uncertainties in the hydrological model predictions and consequently mislead decision making. To tackle this challenge, a Bayesian convolutional neural network (BCNN) driven by climatic data is proposed in this study to bridge this gap at a global scale. Enhanced by integrating recent advances in deep learning, including the attention mechanisms and the residual and dense connections, BCNN can automatically and efficiently extract important features for TWSA predictions from multi-source input data. The predicted TWSAs are compared to the hydrological model outputs and three recent TWSA prediction products. The comparison suggests the superior performance of BCNN in providing improved predictions of TWSAs during the gap in particular in the relatively arid regions. The BCNN's ability to identify the extreme dry and wet events during the gap period is further discussed and comprehensively demonstrated by comparing with the precipitation anomalies, drought index, ground/surface water levels. Results indicate that BCNN is capable of offering a reliable solution to maintain the TWSA data continuity and quantify the impacts of climate extremes during the gap.
Shaoxing Mo, Nicholas Zabaras, Xiaoqing Shi et al.
Inverse modeling for the estimation of non-Gaussian hydraulic conductivity fields in subsurface flow and solute transport models remains a challenging problem. This is mainly due to the non-Gaussian property, the non-linear physics, and the fact that many repeated evaluations of the forward model are often required. In this study, we develop a convolutional adversarial autoencoder (CAAE) to parameterize non-Gaussian conductivity fields with heterogeneous conductivity within each facies using a low-dimensional latent representation. In addition, a deep residual dense convolutional network (DRDCN) is proposed for surrogate modeling of forward models with high-dimensional and highly-complex mappings. The two networks are both based on a multilevel residual learning architecture called residual-in-residual dense block. The multilevel residual learning strategy and the dense connection structure ease the training of deep networks, enabling us to efficiently build deeper networks that have an essentially increased capacity for approximating mappings of very high-complexity. The CCAE and DRDCN networks are incorporated into an iterative ensemble smoother to formulate an inversion framework. The numerical experiments performed using 2-D and 3-D solute transport models illustrate the performance of the integrated method. The obtained results indicate that the CAAE is a robust parameterization method for non-Gaussian conductivity fields with different heterogeneity patterns. The DRDCN is able to obtain accurate approximations of the forward models with high-dimensional and highly-complex mappings using relatively limited training data. The CAAE and DRDCN methods together significantly reduce the computation time required to achieve accurate inversion results.