Emmanuel J. Candes

Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Emmanuel J. Candes, Ryan J. Tibshirani · berkeley

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification for time series prediction, with the goal of providing easy-to-use algorithms with formal guarantees. The algorithms we present build upon ideas from conformal prediction and control theory, are able to prospectively model conformal scores in an online setting, and adapt to the presence of systematic errors due to seasonality, trends, and general distribution shifts. Our theory both simplifies and strengthens existing analyses in online conformal prediction. Experiments on 4-week-ahead forecasting of statewide COVID-19 death counts in the U.S. show an improvement in coverage over the ensemble forecaster used in official CDC communications. We also run experiments on predicting electricity demand, market returns, and temperature using autoregressive, Theta, Prophet, and Transformer models. We provide an extendable codebase for testing our methods and for the integration of new algorithms, data sets, and forecasting rules.

Emmanuel J. Candes, Thomas Strohmer, Vladislav Voroninski

Suppose we wish to recover a signal x in C^n from m intensity measurements of the form |<x,z_i>|^2, i = 1, 2,..., m; that is, from data in which phase information is missing. We prove that if the vectors z_i are sampled independently and uniformly at random on the unit sphere, then the signal x can be recovered exactly (up to a global phase factor) by solving a convenient semidefinite program---a trace-norm minimization problem; this holds with large probability provided that m is on the order of n log n, and without any assumption about the signal whatsoever. This novel result demonstrates that in some instances, the combinatorial phase retrieval problem can be solved by convex programming techniques. Finally, we also prove that our methodology is robust vis a vis additive noise.

Emmanuel J. Candes, Yonina Eldar, Thomas Strohmer et al.

This paper develops a novel framework for phase retrieval, a problem which arises in X-ray crystallography, diffraction imaging, astronomical imaging and many other applications. Our approach combines multiple structured illuminations together with ideas from convex programming to recover the phase from intensity measurements, typically from the modulus of the diffracted wave. We demonstrate empirically that any complex-valued object can be recovered from the knowledge of the magnitude of just a few diffracted patterns by solving a simple convex optimization problem inspired by the recent literature on matrix completion. More importantly, we also demonstrate that our noise-aware algorithms are stable in the sense that the reconstruction degrades gracefully as the signal-to-noise ratio decreases. Finally, we introduce some theory showing that one can design very simple structured illumination patterns such that three diffracted figures uniquely determine the phase of the object we wish to recover.

Emmanuel J. Candes, Yonina C. Eldar, Deanna Needell et al.

This article presents novel results concerning the recovery of signals from undersampled data in the common situation where such signals are not sparse in an orthonormal basis or incoherent dictionary, but in a truly redundant dictionary. This work thus bridges a gap in the literature and shows not only that compressed sensing is viable in this context, but also that accurate recovery is possible via an L1-analysis optimization problem. We introduce a condition on the measurement/sensing matrix, which is a natural generalization of the now well-known restricted isometry property, and which guarantees accurate recovery of signals that are nearly sparse in (possibly) highly overcomplete and coherent dictionaries. This condition imposes no incoherence restriction on the dictionary and our results may be the first of this kind. We discuss practical examples and the implications of our results on those applications, and complement our study by demonstrating the potential of L1-analysis for such problems.

Emmanuel J. Candes, Xiaodong Li

This note shows that we can recover a complex vector x in C^n exactly from on the order of n quadratic equations of the form |<a_i, x>|^2 = b_i, i = 1, ..., m, by using a semidefinite program known as PhaseLift. This improves upon earlier bounds in [3], which required the number of equations to be at least on the order of n log n. We also demonstrate optimal recovery results from noisy quadratic measurements; these results are much sharper than previously known results.

Emmanuel J. Candes, Pragya Sur

This paper rigorously establishes that the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) in high-dimensional logistic regression models with Gaussian covariates undergoes a sharp `phase transition'. We introduce an explicit boundary curve $h_{\text{MLE}}$, parameterized by two scalars measuring the overall magnitude of the unknown sequence of regression coefficients, with the following property: in the limit of large sample sizes $n$ and number of features $p$ proportioned in such a way that $p/n \rightarrow κ$, we show that if the problem is sufficiently high dimensional in the sense that $κ> h_{\text{MLE}}$, then the MLE does not exist with probability one. Conversely, if $κ< h_{\text{MLE}}$, the MLE asymptotically exists with probability one.

Yuxin Chen, Emmanuel J. Candes

We consider the fundamental problem of solving quadratic systems of equations in $n$ variables, where $y_i = |\langle \boldsymbol{a}_i, \boldsymbol{x} \rangle|^2$, $i = 1, \ldots, m$ and $\boldsymbol{x} \in \mathbb{R}^n$ is unknown. We propose a novel method, which starting with an initial guess computed by means of a spectral method, proceeds by minimizing a nonconvex functional as in the Wirtinger flow approach. There are several key distinguishing features, most notably, a distinct objective functional and novel update rules, which operate in an adaptive fashion and drop terms bearing too much influence on the search direction. These careful selection rules provide a tighter initial guess, better descent directions, and thus enhanced practical performance. On the theoretical side, we prove that for certain unstructured models of quadratic systems, our algorithms return the correct solution in linear time, i.e. in time proportional to reading the data $\{\boldsymbol{a}_i\}$ and $\{y_i\}$ as soon as the ratio $m/n$ between the number of equations and unknowns exceeds a fixed numerical constant. We extend the theory to deal with noisy systems in which we only have $y_i \approx |\langle \boldsymbol{a}_i, \boldsymbol{x} \rangle|^2$ and prove that our algorithms achieve a statistical accuracy, which is nearly un-improvable. We complement our theoretical study with numerical examples showing that solving random quadratic systems is both computationally and statistically not much harder than solving linear systems of the same size---hence the title of this paper. For instance, we demonstrate empirically that the computational cost of our algorithm is about four times that of solving a least-squares problem of the same size.

Weijie Su, Stephen Boyd, Emmanuel J. Candes

We derive a second-order ordinary differential equation (ODE) which is the limit of Nesterov's accelerated gradient method. This ODE exhibits approximate equivalence to Nesterov's scheme and thus can serve as a tool for analysis. We show that the continuous time ODE allows for a better understanding of Nesterov's scheme. As a byproduct, we obtain a family of schemes with similar convergence rates. The ODE interpretation also suggests restarting Nesterov's scheme leading to an algorithm, which can be rigorously proven to converge at a linear rate whenever the objective is strongly convex.

Veniamin I. Morgenshtern, Emmanuel J. Candes

In single-molecule microscopy it is necessary to locate with high precision point sources from noisy observations of the spectrum of the signal at frequencies capped by $f_c$, which is just about the frequency of natural light. This paper rigorously establishes that this super-resolution problem can be solved via linear programming in a stable manner. We prove that the quality of the reconstruction crucially depends on the Rayleigh regularity of the support of the signal; that is, on the maximum number of sources that can occur within a square of side length about $1/f_c$. The theoretical performance guarantee is complemented with a converse result showing that our simple convex program convex is nearly optimal. Finally, numerical experiments illustrate our methods.