Adam Li

Eric W. Bridgeford, Jaewon Chung, Brian Gilbert et al.

Causal inference studies whether the presence of a variable influences an observed outcome. As measured by quantities such as the "average treatment effect," this paradigm is employed across numerous biological fields, from vaccine and drug development to policy interventions. Unfortunately, the majority of these methods are often limited to univariate outcomes. Our work generalizes causal estimands to outcomes with any number of dimensions or any measurable space, and formulates traditional causal estimands for nominal variables as causal discrepancy tests. We propose a simple technique for adjusting universally consistent conditional independence tests and prove that these tests are universally consistent causal discrepancy tests. Numerical experiments illustrate that our method, Causal CDcorr, leads to improvements in both finite sample validity and power when compared to existing strategies. Our methods are all open source and available at github.com/ebridge2/cdcorr.

Adam Li, Chester Huynh

Over 15 million epilepsy patients worldwide do not respond to drugs and require surgical treatment. Successful surgical treatment requires complete removal, or disconnection of the epileptogenic zone (EZ), but without a prospective biomarker of the EZ, surgical success rates vary between 30%-70%. Neural fragility is a model recently proposed to localize the EZ. Neural fragility is computed as the l2 norm of a structured rank-one perturbation of an estimated linear dynamical system. However, an analysis of its numerical properties have not been explored. We show that neural fragility is a well-defined model given a good estimator of the linear dynamical system from data. Specifically, we provide bounds on neural fragility as a function of the underlying linear system and noise.

Adam Li, Ronan Perry, Chester Huynh et al.

Decision forests (Forests), in particular random forests and gradient boosting trees, have demonstrated state-of-the-art accuracy compared to other methods in many supervised learning scenarios. In particular, Forests dominate other methods in tabular data, that is, when the feature space is unstructured, so that the signal is invariant to a permutation of the feature indices. However, in structured data lying on a manifold (such as images, text, and speech) deep networks (Networks), specifically convolutional deep networks (ConvNets), tend to outperform Forests. We conjecture that at least part of the reason for this is that the input to Networks is not simply the feature magnitudes, but also their indices. In contrast, naive Forest implementations fail to explicitly consider feature indices. A recently proposed Forest approach demonstrates that Forests, for each node, implicitly sample a random matrix from some specific distribution. These Forests, like some classes of Networks, learn by partitioning the feature space into convex polytopes corresponding to linear functions. We build on that approach and show that one can choose distributions in a manifold-aware fashion to incorporate feature locality. We demonstrate the empirical performance on data whose features live on three different manifolds: a torus, images, and time-series. Moreover, we demonstrate its strength in multivariate simulated settings and also show superiority in predicting surgical outcome in epilepsy patients and predicting movement direction from raw stereotactic EEG data from non-motor brain regions. In all simulations and real data, Manifold Oblique Random Forest (MORF) algorithm outperforms approaches that ignore feature space structure and challenges the performance of ConvNets. Moreover, MORF runs fast and maintains interpretability and theoretical justification.