D. Huppenkothen, M. Ntampaka, M. Ho et al. · princeton
Machine learning has rapidly become a tool of choice for the astronomical community. It is being applied across a wide range of wavelengths and problems, from the classification of transients to neural network emulators of cosmological simulations, and is shifting paradigms about how we generate and report scientific results. At the same time, this class of method comes with its own set of best practices, challenges, and drawbacks, which, at present, are often reported on incompletely in the astrophysical literature. With this paper, we aim to provide a primer to the astronomical community, including authors, reviewers, and editors, on how to implement machine learning models and report their results in a way that ensures the accuracy of the results, reproducibility of the findings, and usefulness of the method.
Cora Dvorkin, Siddharth Mishra-Sharma, Brian Nord et al.
Methods based on machine learning have recently made substantial inroads in many corners of cosmology. Through this process, new computational tools, new perspectives on data collection, model development, analysis, and discovery, as well as new communities and educational pathways have emerged. Despite rapid progress, substantial potential at the intersection of cosmology and machine learning remains untapped. In this white paper, we summarize current and ongoing developments relating to the application of machine learning within cosmology and provide a set of recommendations aimed at maximizing the scientific impact of these burgeoning tools over the coming decade through both technical development as well as the fostering of emerging communities.
Davide Piras, Hiranya V. Peiris, Andrew Pontzen et al.
We develop the use of mutual information (MI), a well-established metric in information theory, to interpret the inner workings of deep learning models. To accurately estimate MI from a finite number of samples, we present GMM-MI (pronounced $``$Jimmie$"$), an algorithm based on Gaussian mixture models that can be applied to both discrete and continuous settings. GMM-MI is computationally efficient, robust to the choice of hyperparameters and provides the uncertainty on the MI estimate due to the finite sample size. We extensively validate GMM-MI on toy data for which the ground truth MI is known, comparing its performance against established mutual information estimators. We then demonstrate the use of our MI estimator in the context of representation learning, working with synthetic data and physical datasets describing highly non-linear processes. We train deep learning models to encode high-dimensional data within a meaningful compressed (latent) representation, and use GMM-MI to quantify both the level of disentanglement between the latent variables, and their association with relevant physical quantities, thus unlocking the interpretability of the latent representation. We make GMM-MI publicly available.
Thomas Y. Chen, Biprateep Dey, Aishik Ghosh et al.
Estimating uncertainty is at the core of performing scientific measurements in HEP: a measurement is not useful without an estimate of its uncertainty. The goal of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is inextricably linked to the question, "how do we physically and statistically interpret these uncertainties?" The answer to this question depends not only on the computational task we aim to undertake, but also on the methods we use for that task. For artificial intelligence (AI) applications in HEP, there are several areas where interpretable methods for UQ are essential, including inference, simulation, and control/decision-making. There exist some methods for each of these areas, but they have not yet been demonstrated to be as trustworthy as more traditional approaches currently employed in physics (e.g., non-AI frequentist and Bayesian methods). Shedding light on the questions above requires additional understanding of the interplay of AI systems and uncertainty quantification. We briefly discuss the existing methods in each area and relate them to tasks across HEP. We then discuss recommendations for avenues to pursue to develop the necessary techniques for reliable widespread usage of AI with UQ over the next decade.
Luisa Lucie-Smith, Hiranya V. Peiris, Andrew Pontzen et al.
The density profiles of dark matter halos are typically modeled using empirical formulae fitted to the density profiles of relaxed halo populations. We present a neural network model that is trained to learn the mapping from the raw density field containing each halo to the dark matter density profile. We show that the model recovers the widely-used Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW) profile out to the virial radius, and can additionally describe the variability in the outer profile of the halos. The neural network architecture consists of a supervised encoder-decoder framework, which first compresses the density inputs into a low-dimensional latent representation, and then outputs $ρ(r)$ for any desired value of radius $r$. The latent representation contains all the information used by the model to predict the density profiles. This allows us to interpret the latent representation by quantifying the mutual information between the representation and the halos' ground-truth density profiles. A two-dimensional representation is sufficient to accurately model the density profiles up to the virial radius; however, a three-dimensional representation is required to describe the outer profiles beyond the virial radius. The additional dimension in the representation contains information about the infalling material in the outer profiles of dark matter halos, thus discovering the splashback boundary of halos without prior knowledge of the halos' dynamical history.
Aleksandra Ćiprijanović, Ashia Lewis, Kevin Pedro et al.
In the era of big astronomical surveys, our ability to leverage artificial intelligence algorithms simultaneously for multiple datasets will open new avenues for scientific discovery. Unfortunately, simply training a deep neural network on images from one data domain often leads to very poor performance on any other dataset. Here we develop a Universal Domain Adaptation method DeepAstroUDA, capable of performing semi-supervised domain alignment that can be applied to datasets with different types of class overlap. Extra classes can be present in any of the two datasets, and the method can even be used in the presence of unknown classes. For the first time, we demonstrate the successful use of domain adaptation on two very different observational datasets (from SDSS and DECaLS). We show that our method is capable of bridging the gap between two astronomical surveys, and also performs well for anomaly detection and clustering of unknown data in the unlabeled dataset. We apply our model to two examples of galaxy morphology classification tasks with anomaly detection: 1) classifying spiral and elliptical galaxies with detection of merging galaxies (three classes including one unknown anomaly class); 2) a more granular problem where the classes describe more detailed morphological properties of galaxies, with the detection of gravitational lenses (ten classes including one unknown anomaly class).
Andrea Roncoli, Aleksandra Ćiprijanović, Maggie Voetberg et al.
Deep learning models have been shown to outperform methods that rely on summary statistics, like the power spectrum, in extracting information from complex cosmological data sets. However, due to differences in the subgrid physics implementation and numerical approximations across different simulation suites, models trained on data from one cosmological simulation show a drop in performance when tested on another. Similarly, models trained on any of the simulations would also likely experience a drop in performance when applied to observational data. Training on data from two different suites of the CAMELS hydrodynamic cosmological simulations, we examine the generalization capabilities of Domain Adaptive Graph Neural Networks (DA-GNNs). By utilizing GNNs, we capitalize on their capacity to capture structured scale-free cosmological information from galaxy distributions. Moreover, by including unsupervised domain adaptation via Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), we enable our models to extract domain-invariant features. We demonstrate that DA-GNN achieves higher accuracy and robustness on cross-dataset tasks (up to $28\%$ better relative error and up to almost an order of magnitude better $χ^2$). Using data visualizations, we show the effects of domain adaptation on proper latent space data alignment. This shows that DA-GNNs are a promising method for extracting domain-independent cosmological information, a vital step toward robust deep learning for real cosmic survey data.
The study of quasar light curves poses two problems: inference of the power spectrum and interpolation of an irregularly sampled time series. A baseline approach to these tasks is to interpolate a time series with a Damped Random Walk (DRW) model, in which the spectrum is inferred using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). However, the DRW model does not describe the smoothness of the time series, and MLE faces many problems in terms of optimization and numerical precision. In this work, we introduce a new stochastic model that we call $\textit{Convolved Damped Random Walk}$ (CDRW). This model introduces a concept of smoothness to a DRW, which enables it to describe quasar spectra completely. We also introduce a new method of inference of Gaussian process parameters, which we call $\textit{Neural Inference}$. This method uses the powers of state-of-the-art neural networks to improve the conventional MLE inference technique. In our experiments, the Neural Inference method results in significant improvement over the baseline MLE (RMSE: $0.318 \rightarrow 0.205$, $0.464 \rightarrow 0.444$). Moreover, the combination of both the CDRW model and Neural Inference significantly outperforms the baseline DRW and MLE in interpolating a typical quasar light curve ($χ^2$: $0.333 \rightarrow 0.998$, $2.695 \rightarrow 0.981$). The code is published on GitHub.
Bayesian optimization has been challenged by datasets with large-scale, high-dimensional, and non-stationary characteristics, which are common in real-world scenarios. Recent works attempt to handle such input by applying neural networks ahead of the classical Gaussian process to learn a latent representation. We show that even with proper network design, such learned representation often leads to collision in the latent space: two points with significantly different observations collide in the learned latent space, leading to degraded optimization performance. To address this issue, we propose LOCo, an efficient deep Bayesian optimization framework which employs a novel regularizer to reduce the collision in the learned latent space and encourage the mapping from the latent space to the objective value to be Lipschitz continuous. LOCo takes in pairs of data points and penalizes those too close in the latent space compared to their target space distance. We provide a rigorous theoretical justification for LOCo by inspecting the regret of this dynamic-embedding-based Bayesian optimization algorithm, where the neural network is iteratively retrained with the regularizer. Our empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of LOCo on several synthetic and real-world benchmark Bayesian optimization tasks.
Modern astronomical experiments are designed to achieve multiple scientific goals, from studies of galaxy evolution to cosmic acceleration. These goals require data of many different classes of night-sky objects, each of which has a particular set of observational needs. These observational needs are typically in strong competition with one another. This poses a challenging multi-objective optimization problem that remains unsolved. The effectiveness of Reinforcement Learning (RL) as a valuable paradigm for training autonomous systems has been well-demonstrated, and it may provide the basis for self-driving telescopes capable of optimizing the scheduling for astronomy campaigns. Simulated datasets containing examples of interactions between a telescope and a discrete set of sky locations on the celestial sphere can be used to train an RL model to sequentially gather data from these several locations to maximize a cumulative reward as a measure of the quality of the data gathered. We use simulated data to test and compare multiple implementations of a Deep Q-Network (DQN) for the task of optimizing the schedule of observations from the Stone Edge Observatory (SEO). We combine multiple improvements on the DQN and adjustments to the dataset, showing that DQNs can achieve an average reward of 87%+-6% of the maximum achievable reward in each state on the test set. This is the first comparison of offline RL algorithms for a particular astronomical challenge and the first open-source framework for performing such a comparison and assessment task.
Modern deep neural networks comprise many operational layers, such as dense or convolutional layers, which are often collected into blocks. In this work, we introduce a new, wavelet-transform-based network architecture that we call the multi-resolution perceptron: by adding a pooling layer, we create a new network block, the WavPool. The first step of the multi-resolution perceptron is transforming the data into its multi-resolution decomposition form by convolving the input data with filters of fixed coefficients but increasing size. Following image processing techniques, we are able to make scale and spatial information simultaneously accessible to the network without increasing the size of the data vector. WavPool outperforms a similar multilayer perceptron while using fewer parameters, and outperforms a comparable convolutional neural network by ~ 10% on relative accuracy on CIFAR-10.
Ashwin Samudre, Mircea Petrache, Brian D. Nord et al.
There has been much recent interest in designing neural networks (NNs) with relaxed equivariance, which interpolate between exact equivariance and full flexibility for consistent performance gains. In a separate line of work, structured parameter matrices with low displacement rank (LDR) -- which permit fast function and gradient evaluation -- have been used to create compact NNs, though primarily benefiting classical convolutional neural networks (CNNs). In this work, we propose a framework based on symmetry-based structured matrices to build approximately equivariant NNs with fewer parameters. Our approach unifies the aforementioned areas using Group Matrices (GMs), a forgotten precursor to the modern notion of regular representations of finite groups. GMs allow the design of structured matrices similar to LDR matrices, which can generalize all the elementary operations of a CNN from cyclic groups to arbitrary finite groups. We show GMs can also generalize classical LDR theory to general discrete groups, enabling a natural formalism for approximate equivariance. We test GM-based architectures on various tasks with relaxed symmetry and find that our framework performs competitively with approximately equivariant NNs and other structured matrix-based methods, often with one to two orders of magnitude fewer parameters.
Paxson Swierc, Marcos Tamargo-Arizmendi, Aleksandra Ćiprijanović et al.
Modeling strong gravitational lenses is prohibitively expensive for modern and next-generation cosmic survey data. Neural posterior estimation (NPE), a simulation-based inference (SBI) approach, has been studied as an avenue for efficient analysis of strong lensing data. However, NPE has not been demonstrated to perform well on out-of-domain target data -- e.g., when trained on simulated data and then applied to real, observational data. In this work, we perform the first study of the efficacy of NPE in combination with unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA). The source domain is noiseless, and the target domain has noise mimicking modern cosmology surveys. We find that combining UDA and NPE improves the accuracy of the inference by 1-2 orders of magnitude and significantly improves the posterior coverage over an NPE model without UDA. We anticipate that this combination of approaches will help enable future applications of NPE models to real observational data.
Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and estimation across disciplines, and (b) the varying technical requirements for establishing trustworthy uncertainties in diverse problem contexts. In this position paper, we aim to clarify the depth of these challenges by identifying these inconsistencies and articulating how different contexts impose distinct epistemic demands. We examine the current landscape of estimation targets (e.g., prediction, inference, simulation-based inference), uncertainty constructs (e.g., frequentist, Bayesian, fiducial), and the approaches used to map between them. Drawing on the literature, we highlight and explain examples of problematic mappings. To help address these issues, we advocate for standards that promote alignment between the \textit{intent} and \textit{implementation} of uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches. We discuss several axes of trustworthiness that are necessary (if not sufficient) for reliable UQ in ML models, and show how these axes can inform the design and evaluation of uncertainty-aware ML systems. Our practical recommendations focus on scientific ML, offering illustrative cases and use scenarios, particularly in the context of simulation-based inference (SBI).
Shrihan Agarwal, Aleksandra Ćiprijanović, Brian D. Nord
Modeling strong gravitational lenses is computationally expensive for the complex data from modern and next-generation cosmic surveys. Deep learning has emerged as a promising approach for finding lenses and predicting lensing parameters, such as the Einstein radius. Mean-variance Estimators (MVEs) are a common approach for obtaining aleatoric (data) uncertainties from a neural network prediction. However, neural networks have not been demonstrated to perform well on out-of-domain target data successfully - e.g., when trained on simulated data and applied to real, observational data. In this work, we perform the first study of the efficacy of MVEs in combination with unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) on strong lensing data. The source domain data is noiseless, and the target domain data has noise mimicking modern cosmology surveys. We find that adding UDA to MVE increases the accuracy on the target data by a factor of about two over an MVE model without UDA. Including UDA also permits much more well-calibrated aleatoric uncertainty predictions. Advancements in this approach may enable future applications of MVE models to real observational data.
Modern neural networks (NNs) often do not generalize well in the presence of a "covariate shift"; that is, in situations where the training and test data distributions differ, but the conditional distribution of classification labels remains unchanged. In such cases, NN generalization can be reduced to a problem of learning more domain-invariant features. Domain adaptation (DA) methods include a range of techniques aimed at achieving this; however, these methods have struggled with the need for extensive hyperparameter tuning, which then incurs significant computational costs. In this work, we introduce SIDDA, an out-of-the-box DA training algorithm built upon the Sinkhorn divergence, that can achieve effective domain alignment with minimal hyperparameter tuning and computational overhead. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on multiple simulated and real datasets of varying complexity, including simple shapes, handwritten digits, and real astronomical observations. SIDDA is compatible with a variety of NN architectures, and it works particularly well in improving classification accuracy and model calibration when paired with equivariant neural networks (ENNs). We find that SIDDA enhances the generalization capabilities of NNs, achieving up to a $\approx40\%$ improvement in classification accuracy on unlabeled target data. We also study the efficacy of DA on ENNs with respect to the varying group orders of the dihedral group $D_N$, and find that the model performance improves as the degree of equivariance increases. Finally, we find that SIDDA enhances model calibration on both source and target data--achieving over an order of magnitude improvement in the ECE and Brier score. SIDDA's versatility, combined with its automated approach to domain alignment, has the potential to advance multi-dataset studies by enabling the development of highly generalizable models.
Rebecca Nevin, Aleksandra Ćiprijanović, Brian D. Nord
Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret exactly. We systematically compare aleatoric uncertainty measured by two UQ techniques, Deep Ensembles (DE) and Deep Evidential Regression (DER). Our method focuses on both zero-dimensional (0D) and two-dimensional (2D) data, to explore how the UQ methods function for different data dimensionalities. We investigate uncertainty injected on the input and output variables and include a method to propagate uncertainty in the case of input uncertainty so that we can compare the predicted aleatoric uncertainty to the known values. We experiment with three levels of noise. The aleatoric uncertainty predicted across all models and experiments scales with the injected noise level. However, the predicted uncertainty is miscalibrated to $\rm{std}(σ_{\rm al})$ with the true uncertainty for half of the DE experiments and almost all of the DER experiments. The predicted uncertainty is the least accurate for both UQ methods for the 2D input uncertainty experiment and the high-noise level. While these results do not apply to more complex data, they highlight that further research on post-facto calibration for these methods would be beneficial, particularly for high-noise and high-dimensional settings.
Aleksandra Ćiprijanović, Diana Kafkes, Gregory Snyder et al.
With increased adoption of supervised deep learning methods for processing and analysis of cosmological survey data, the assessment of data perturbation effects (that can naturally occur in the data processing and analysis pipelines) and the development of methods that increase model robustness are increasingly important. In the context of morphological classification of galaxies, we study the effects of perturbations in imaging data. In particular, we examine the consequences of using neural networks when training on baseline data and testing on perturbed data. We consider perturbations associated with two primary sources: 1) increased observational noise as represented by higher levels of Poisson noise and 2) data processing noise incurred by steps such as image compression or telescope errors as represented by one-pixel adversarial attacks. We also test the efficacy of domain adaptation techniques in mitigating the perturbation-driven errors. We use classification accuracy, latent space visualizations, and latent space distance to assess model robustness. Without domain adaptation, we find that processing pixel-level errors easily flip the classification into an incorrect class and that higher observational noise makes the model trained on low-noise data unable to classify galaxy morphologies. On the other hand, we show that training with domain adaptation improves model robustness and mitigates the effects of these perturbations, improving the classification accuracy by 23% on data with higher observational noise. Domain adaptation also increases by a factor of ~2.3 the latent space distance between the baseline and the incorrectly classified one-pixel perturbed image, making the model more robust to inadvertent perturbations.
We present an approach for maximizing a global utility function by learning how to allocate resources in an unsupervised way. We expect interactions between allocation targets to be important and therefore propose to learn the reward structure for near-optimal allocation policies with a GNN. By relaxing the resource constraint, we can employ gradient-based optimization in contrast to more standard evolutionary algorithms. Our algorithm is motivated by a problem in modern astronomy, where one needs to select-based on limited initial information-among $10^9$ galaxies those whose detailed measurement will lead to optimal inference of the composition of the universe. Our technique presents a way of flexibly learning an allocation strategy by only requiring forward simulators for the physics of interest and the measurement process. We anticipate that our technique will also find applications in a range of resource allocation problems.
In astronomy, neural networks are often trained on simulation data with the prospect of being used on telescope observations. Unfortunately, training a model on simulation data and then applying it to instrument data leads to a substantial and potentially even detrimental decrease in model accuracy on the new target dataset. Simulated and instrument data represent different data domains, and for an algorithm to work in both, domain-invariant learning is necessary. Here we employ domain adaptation techniques$-$ Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) as an additional transfer loss and Domain Adversarial Neural Networks (DANNs)$-$ and demonstrate their viability to extract domain-invariant features within the astronomical context of classifying merging and non-merging galaxies. Additionally, we explore the use of Fisher loss and entropy minimization to enforce better in-domain class discriminability. We show that the addition of each domain adaptation technique improves the performance of a classifier when compared to conventional deep learning algorithms. We demonstrate this on two examples: between two Illustris-1 simulated datasets of distant merging galaxies, and between Illustris-1 simulated data of nearby merging galaxies and observed data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The use of domain adaptation techniques in our experiments leads to an increase of target domain classification accuracy of up to ${\sim}20\%$. With further development, these techniques will allow astronomers to successfully implement neural network models trained on simulation data to efficiently detect and study astrophysical objects in current and future large-scale astronomical surveys.
Galaxy clusters identified from the Sunyaev Zel'dovich (SZ) effect are a key ingredient in multi-wavelength cluster-based cosmology. We present a comparison between two methods of cluster identification: the standard Matched Filter (MF) method in SZ cluster finding and a method using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). We further implement and show results for a `combined' identifier. We apply the methods to simulated millimeter maps for several observing frequencies for an SPT-3G-like survey. There are some key differences between the methods. The MF method requires image pre-processing to remove point sources and a model for the noise, while the CNN method requires very little pre-processing of images. Additionally, the CNN requires tuning of hyperparameters in the model and takes as input, cutout images of the sky. Specifically, we use the CNN to classify whether or not an 8 arcmin $\times$ 8 arcmin cutout of the sky contains a cluster. We compare differences in purity and completeness. The MF signal-to-noise ratio depends on both mass and redshift. Our CNN, trained for a given mass threshold, captures a different set of clusters than the MF, some of which have SNR below the MF detection threshold. However, the CNN tends to mis-classify cutouts whose clusters are located near the edge of the cutout, which can be mitigated with staggered cutouts. We leverage the complementarity of the two methods, combining the scores from each method for identification. The purity and completeness of the MF alone are both 0.61, assuming a standard detection threshold. The purity and completeness of the CNN alone are 0.59 and 0.61. The combined classification method yields 0.60 and 0.77, a significant increase for completeness with a modest decrease in purity. We advocate for combined methods that increase the confidence of many lower signal-to-noise clusters.
Luisa Lucie-Smith, Hiranya V. Peiris, Andrew Pontzen et al.
The evolution of linear initial conditions present in the early universe into extended halos of dark matter at late times can be computed using cosmological simulations. However, a theoretical understanding of this complex process remains elusive; in particular, the role of anisotropic information in the initial conditions in establishing the final mass of dark matter halos remains a long-standing puzzle. Here, we build a deep learning framework to investigate this question. We train a three-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict the mass of dark matter halos from the initial conditions, and quantify in full generality the amounts of information in the isotropic and anisotropic aspects of the initial density field about final halo masses. We find that anisotropies add a small, albeit statistically significant amount of information over that contained within spherical averages of the density field about final halo mass. However, the overall scatter in the final mass predictions does not change qualitatively with this additional information, only decreasing from 0.9 dex to 0.7 dex. Given such a small improvement, our results demonstrate that isotropic aspects of the initial density field essentially saturate the relevant information about final halo mass. Therefore, instead of searching for information directly encoded in initial conditions anisotropies, a more promising route to accurate, fast halo mass predictions is to add approximate dynamical information based e.g. on perturbation theory. More broadly, our results indicate that deep learning frameworks can provide a powerful tool for extracting physical insight into cosmological structure formation.
In astronomy, neural networks are often trained on simulated data with the prospect of being applied to real observations. Unfortunately, simply training a deep neural network on images from one domain does not guarantee satisfactory performance on new images from a different domain. The ability to share cross-domain knowledge is the main advantage of modern deep domain adaptation techniques. Here we demonstrate the use of two techniques - Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) and adversarial training with Domain Adversarial Neural Networks (DANN) - for the classification of distant galaxy mergers from the Illustris-1 simulation, where the two domains presented differ only due to inclusion of observational noise. We show how the addition of either MMD or adversarial training greatly improves the performance of the classifier on the target domain when compared to conventional machine learning algorithms, thereby demonstrating great promise for their use in astronomy.
We investigate and demonstrate the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for the task of distinguishing between merging and non-merging galaxies in simulated images, and for the first time at high redshifts (i.e. $z=2$). We extract images of merging and non-merging galaxies from the Illustris-1 cosmological simulation and apply observational and experimental noise that mimics that from the Hubble Space Telescope; the data without noise form a "pristine" data set and that with noise form a "noisy" data set. The test set classification accuracy of the CNN is $79\%$ for pristine and $76\%$ for noisy. The CNN outperforms a Random Forest classifier, which was shown to be superior to conventional one- or two-dimensional statistical methods (Concentration, Asymmetry, the Gini, $M_{20}$ statistics etc.), which are commonly used when classifying merging galaxies. We also investigate the selection effects of the classifier with respect to merger state and star formation rate, finding no bias. Finally, we extract Grad-CAMs (Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping) from the results to further assess and interrogate the fidelity of the classification model.
We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN), Concrete Dropout (CD), and Deep Ensembles (DE) - are compared to the standard analytic error propagation. We discuss this comparison in terms endemic to both machine learning ("epistemic" and "aleatoric") and the physical sciences ("statistical" and "systematic"). The comparisons are presented in terms of simulated experimental measurements of a single pendulum - a prototypical physical system for studying measurement and analysis techniques. Our results highlight some pitfalls that may occur when using these UQ methods. For example, when the variation of noise in the training set is small, all methods predicted the same relative uncertainty independently of the inputs. This issue is particularly hard to avoid in BNN. On the other hand, when the test set contains samples far from the training distribution, we found that no methods sufficiently increased the uncertainties associated to their predictions. This problem was particularly clear for CD. In light of these results, we make some recommendations for usage and interpretation of UQ methods.
João Caldeira, Joshua Job, Steven H. Adachi et al.
We present the application of Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) to the task of astronomical image classification using a quantum annealer built by D-Wave Systems. Morphological analysis of galaxies provides critical information for studying their formation and evolution across cosmic time scales. We compress galaxy images using principal component analysis to fit a representation on the quantum hardware. Then, we train RBMs with discriminative and generative algorithms, including contrastive divergence and hybrid generative-discriminative approaches, to classify different galaxy morphologies. The methods we compare include Quantum Annealing (QA), Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs Sampling, and Simulated Annealing (SA) as well as machine learning algorithms like gradient boosted decision trees. We find that RBMs implemented on D-Wave hardware perform well, and that they show some classification performance advantages on small datasets, but they don't offer a broadly strategic advantage for this task. During this exploration, we analyzed the steps required for Boltzmann sampling with the D-Wave 2000Q, including a study of temperature estimation, and examined the impact of qubit noise by comparing and contrasting the original D-Wave 2000Q to the lower-noise version recently made available. While these analyses ultimately had minimal impact on the performance of the RBMs, we include them for reference.
Brian Nord, Andrew J. Connolly, Jamie Kinney et al.
The field of astronomy has arrived at a turning point in terms of size and complexity of both datasets and scientific collaboration. Commensurately, algorithms and statistical models have begun to adapt --- e.g., via the onset of artificial intelligence --- which itself presents new challenges and opportunities for growth. This white paper aims to offer guidance and ideas for how we can evolve our technical and collaborative frameworks to promote efficient algorithmic development and take advantage of opportunities for scientific discovery in the petabyte era. We discuss challenges for discovery in large and complex data sets; challenges and requirements for the next stage of development of statistical methodologies and algorithmic tool sets; how we might change our paradigms of collaboration and education; and the ethical implications of scientists' contributions to widely applicable algorithms and computational modeling. We start with six distinct recommendations that are supported by the commentary following them. This white paper is related to a larger corpus of effort that has taken place within and around the Petabytes to Science Workshops (https://petabytestoscience.github.io/).