Dharmesh Tailor

Dharmesh Tailor, Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan, Eric Nalisnick

Neural Processes (NPs) are appealing due to their ability to perform fast adaptation based on a context set. This set is encoded by a latent variable, which is often assumed to follow a simple distribution. However, in real-word settings, the context set may be drawn from richer distributions having multiple modes, heavy tails, etc. In this work, we provide a framework that allows NPs' latent variable to be given a rich prior defined by a graphical model. These distributional assumptions directly translate into an appropriate aggregation strategy for the context set. Moreover, we describe a message-passing procedure that still allows for end-to-end optimization with stochastic gradients. We demonstrate the generality of our framework by using mixture and Student-t assumptions that yield improvements in function modelling and test-time robustness.

Peter Nickl, Lu Xu, Dharmesh Tailor et al.

Understanding model's sensitivity to its training data is crucial but can also be challenging and costly, especially during training. To simplify such issues, we present the Memory-Perturbation Equation (MPE) which relates model's sensitivity to perturbation in its training data. Derived using Bayesian principles, the MPE unifies existing sensitivity measures, generalizes them to a wide-variety of models and algorithms, and unravels useful properties regarding sensitivities. Our empirical results show that sensitivity estimates obtained during training can be used to faithfully predict generalization on unseen test data. The proposed equation is expected to be useful for future research on robust and adaptive learning.

Dharmesh Tailor, Nicolò Felicioni, Kamil Ciosek

Training Data Attribution (TDA) seeks to trace model predictions back to influential training examples, enhancing interpretability and safety. We formulate TDA as a Bayesian information-theoretic problem: subsets are scored by the information loss they induce - the entropy increase at a query when removed. This criterion credits examples for resolving predictive uncertainty rather than label noise. To scale to modern networks, we approximate information loss using a Gaussian Process surrogate built from tangent features. We show this aligns with classical influence scores for single-example attribution while promoting diversity for subsets. For even larger-scale retrieval, we relax to an information-gain objective and add a variance correction for scalable attribution in vector databases. Experiments show competitive performance on counterfactual sensitivity, ground-truth retrieval and coreset selection, showing that our method scales to modern architectures while bridging principled measures with practice.

Dharmesh Tailor, Aditya Patra, Rajeev Verma et al.

The learning to defer (L2D) framework allows autonomous systems to be safe and robust by allocating difficult decisions to a human expert. All existing work on L2D assumes that each expert is well-identified, and if any expert were to change, the system should be re-trained. In this work, we alleviate this constraint, formulating an L2D system that can cope with never-before-seen experts at test-time. We accomplish this by using meta-learning, considering both optimization- and model-based variants. Given a small context set to characterize the currently available expert, our framework can quickly adapt its deferral policy. For the model-based approach, we employ an attention mechanism that is able to look for points in the context set that are similar to a given test point, leading to an even more precise assessment of the expert's abilities. In the experiments, we validate our methods on image recognition, traffic sign detection, and skin lesion diagnosis benchmarks.

Dharmesh Tailor, Alvaro H. C. Correia, Eric Nalisnick et al.

Uncertainty quantification is an important prerequisite for the deployment of deep learning models in safety-critical areas. Yet, this hinges on the uncertainty estimates being useful to the extent the prediction intervals are well-calibrated and sharp. In the absence of inherent uncertainty estimates (e.g. pretrained models predicting only point estimates), popular approaches that operate post-hoc include Laplace's method and split conformal prediction (split-CP). However, Laplace's method can be miscalibrated when the model is misspecified and split-CP requires sample splitting, and thus comes at the expense of statistical efficiency. In this work, we construct prediction intervals for neural network regressors post-hoc without held-out data. This is achieved by approximating the full conformal prediction method (full-CP). Whilst full-CP nominally requires retraining the model for every test point and candidate label, we propose to train just once and locally perturb model parameters using Gauss-Newton influence to approximate the effect of retraining. Coupled with linearization of the network, we express the absolute residual nonconformity score as a piecewise linear function of the candidate label allowing for an efficient procedure that avoids the exhaustive search over the output space. On standard regression benchmarks and bounding box localization, we show the resulting prediction intervals are locally-adaptive and often tighter than those of split-CP.

Putri A. van der Linden, Alexander Timans, Dharmesh Tailor et al.

Equivariant models leverage prior knowledge on symmetries to improve predictive performance, but misspecified architectural constraints can harm it instead. While work has explored learning or relaxing constraints, selecting among pretrained models with varying symmetry biases remains challenging. We examine this model selection task from an uncertainty-aware perspective, comparing frequentist (via Conformal Prediction), Bayesian (via the marginal likelihood), and calibration-based measures to naive error-based evaluation. We find that uncertainty metrics generally align with predictive performance, but Bayesian model evidence does so inconsistently. We attribute this to a mismatch in Bayesian and geometric notions of model complexity for the employed last-layer Laplace approximation, and discuss possible remedies. Our findings point towards the potential of uncertainty in guiding symmetry-aware model selection.

Dharmesh Tailor, Dario Izzo

Imitation learning is a control design paradigm that seeks to learn a control policy reproducing demonstrations from expert agents. By substituting expert demonstrations for optimal behaviours, the same paradigm leads to the design of control policies closely approximating the optimal state-feedback. This approach requires training a machine learning algorithm (in our case deep neural networks) directly on state-control pairs originating from optimal trajectories. We have shown in previous work that, when restricted to low-dimensional state and control spaces, this approach is very successful in several deterministic, non-linear problems in continuous-time. In this work, we refine our previous studies using as a test case a simple quadcopter model with quadratic and time-optimal objective functions. We describe in detail the best learning pipeline we have developed, that is able to approximate via deep neural networks the state-feedback map to a very high accuracy. We introduce the use of the softplus activation function in the hidden units of neural networks showing that it results in a smoother control profile whilst retaining the benefits of rectifiers. We show how to evaluate the optimality of the trained state-feedback, and find that already with two layers the objective function reached and its optimal value differ by less than one percent. We later consider also an additional metric linked to the system asymptotic behaviour - time taken to converge to the policy's fixed point. With respect to these metrics, we show that improvements in the mean absolute error do not necessarily correspond to better policies.

Dario Izzo, Dharmesh Tailor, Thomas Vasileiou

Recent work have shown how the optimal state-feedback, obtained as the solution to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, can be approximated for several nonlinear, deterministic systems by deep neural networks. When imitation (supervised) learning is used to train the neural network on optimal state-action pairs, for instance as derived by applying Pontryagin's theory of optimal processes, the resulting model is referred here as the guidance and control network. In this work, we analyze the stability of nonlinear and deterministic systems controlled by such networks. We then propose a method utilising differential algebraic techniques and high-order Taylor maps to gain information on the stability of the neurocontrolled state trajectories. We exemplify the proposed methods in the case of the two-dimensional dynamics of a quadcopter controlled to reach the origin and we study how different architectures of the guidance and control network affect the stability of the target equilibrium point and the stability margins to time delay. Moreover, we show how to study the robustness to initial conditions of a nominal trajectory, using a Taylor representation of the neurocontrolled neighbouring trajectories.

Dario Izzo, Christopher Sprague, Dharmesh Tailor

After providing a brief historical overview on the synergies between artificial intelligence research, in the areas of evolutionary computations and machine learning, and the optimal design of interplanetary trajectories, we propose and study the use of deep artificial neural networks to represent, on-board, the optimal guidance profile of an interplanetary mission. The results, limited to the chosen test case of an Earth-Mars orbital transfer, extend the findings made previously for landing scenarios and quadcopter dynamics, opening a new research area in interplanetary trajectory planning.