Megan Wang

Yuxuan Gao, Megan Wang, Yi Ling Yu

We adapt split conformal prediction and adaptive conformal inference (ACI) to continuous AI agent evaluation, providing distribution-free coverage guarantees for forecasted quality scores. Conformal intervals achieve calibration error below 0.02 across all nominal levels at the 24h horizon, while ACI correctly widens intervals by 35% following agent releases then reconverges. We further develop compositional uncertainty bounds for multi-agent pipelines (validated via simulation across inter-stage correlations rho in [-0.5, 0.9]), a conformal abstention rule for pairwise rankings with controlled false-ranking rate, and FDR-corrected abstention for leaderboard-scale multiple testing. Evaluating 50 agents via 18 real-time signals collected hourly, we show that per-agent conditional coverage is well-concentrated around the nominal level (mean 80.4%, 90% of agents within [72%, 90%]), and that cross-source sentiment divergence predicts ranking instability (r=0.64, p<0.01). A circularity-controlled validation confirms the framework captures signal beyond benchmarks (rho_s=0.52, p<0.01, n=35). Code and data are released under CC BY 4.0.

Yuxuan Gao, Megan Wang, Yi Ling Yu et al.

We introduce DecisionBench, a benchmark substrate for emergent delegation in long-horizon agentic workflows. The substrate fixes a task suite (GAIA, tau-bench, BFCL multi-turn), a peer-model pool (11 models, 7 vendor families), a delegation interface (call_model plus an optional read_profile channel), a deterministic skill-annotation layer, and a multi-axis metric suite covering quality, cost, latency, delegation rate, routing fidelity-at-k, vendor self-preference, and a counterfactual-delegation ceiling. The substrate is agnostic to how peer information is generated or delivered, so learned routers, richer peer memories, adaptive profile construction, and multi-step delegation can all be evaluated against it. We characterize the substrate with a five-condition reference sweep on the full pool (n=23,375 task instances). Three benchmark-level findings emerge: (i) mean end-task quality is statistically indistinguishable across the four awareness conditions (|beta| <= 0.010, p >= 0.21), so quality-only evaluation would miss the orchestration signal; (ii) routing fidelity-at-1 ranges from 7.5% to 29.5% across conditions at near-equal mean quality, with delivery channel (on-demand tool vs. preloaded description) dominating description content; (iii) a counterfactual ceiling places perfect delegation 15-31 percentage points above measured performance on every suite, locating large unrealized headroom for future orchestration methods. We release the substrate, annotation layer, reference intervention suite, analysis pipeline, and 220 per-condition run archives.

Aditya Gupta, Samarth Chitgopekar, Alexander Kim et al.

We present our work on electric bicycles (e-bikes) and their implications for policymakers in the United States. E-bikes have gained significant popularity as a fast and eco-friendly transportation option. As we strive for a sustainable energy plan, understanding the growth and impact of e-bikes is crucial for policymakers. Our mathematical modeling offers insights into the value of e-bikes and their role in the future. Using an ARIMA model, a supervised machine-learning algorithm, we predicted the growth of e-bike sales in the U.S. Our model, trained on historical sales data from January 2006 to December 2022, projected sales of 1.3 million units in 2025 and 2.113 million units in 2028. To assess the factors contributing to e-bike usage, we employed a Random Forest regression model. The most significant factors influencing e-bike sales growth were disposable personal income and popularity. Furthermore, we examined the environmental and health impacts of e-bikes. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we estimated the reduction in carbon emissions due to e-bike use and the calories burned through e-biking. Our findings revealed that e-bike usage in the U.S. resulted in a reduction of 15,737.82 kilograms of CO2 emissions in 2022. Additionally, e-bike users burned approximately 716,630.727 kilocalories through their activities in the same year. Our research provides valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the potential of e-bikes as a sustainable transportation solution. By understanding the growth factors and quantifying the environmental and health benefits, policymakers can make informed decisions about integrating e-bikes into future energy and transportation strategies.

Yuxuan Gao, Megan Wang, Yi Ling Yu

Public inference benchmarks compare AI systems at the model and provider level, but the unit at which deployment decisions are actually made is the endpoint: the (provider, model, stock-keeping-unit) tuple at which a specific quantization, decoding strategy, region, and serving stack is exposed. We introduce TokenArena, a continuous benchmark that measures inference at endpoint granularity along five core axes (output speed, time to first token, workload-blended price, effective context, and quality on the live endpoint) and synthesizes them, together with a modeled energy estimate, into three headline composites: joules per correct answer, dollars per correct answer, and endpoint fidelity (output-distribution similarity to a first-party reference). The framework's novelty is empirical and methodological. Across 78 endpoints serving 12 model families, the same model on different endpoints differs in mean accuracy by up to 12.5 points on math and code, in fingerprint similarity to first party by up to 12 points, in tail latency by an order of magnitude, and in modeled joules per correct answer by a factor of 6.2. We further show that workload-aware blended pricing reorders the leaderboard substantially: 7 of 10 top-ranked endpoints under the chat preset (3:1 input:output) fall out of the top 10 under the retrieval-augmented preset (20:1), and the reasoning preset (1:5) elevates frontier closed models that the chat preset penalizes on price. We release the framework, schema, probe and eval harness, and a v1.0 leaderboard snapshot under CC BY 4.0. TokenArena is a methodology, not a single ranking; we publish full provenance and limitations and welcome external replication.

Yuxuan Gao, Megan Wang, Yi Ling Yu

Static benchmarks measure what AI agents can do at a fixed point in time but not how they are adopted, maintained, or experienced in deployment. We introduce AgentPulse, a continuous evaluation framework scoring 50 agents across 10 workload categories along four factors (Benchmark Performance, Adoption Signals, Community Sentiment, and Ecosystem Health) aggregated from 18 real-time signals across GitHub, package registries, IDE marketplaces, social platforms, and benchmark leaderboards. Three analyses ground the framework. The four factors capture largely complementary information (n=50; $ρ_{\max}=0.61$ for Adoption-Ecosystem, all others $|ρ| \leq 0.37$). A circularity-controlled test (n=35) shows the Benchmark+Sentiment sub-composite, which contains no GitHub-derived signals, predicts external adoption proxies it does not aggregate: GitHub stars ($ρ_s=0.52$, $p<0.01$) and Stack Overflow question volume ($ρ_s=0.49$, $p<0.01$), with VS Code installs ($ρ_s=0.44$, $p<0.05$) reported as illustrative given that only 11 of 35 agents have non-zero installs. On the n=11 subset with published SWE-bench scores, composite and benchmark-only rankings are nearly uncorrelated ($ρ_s=0.25$; 9 of 11 agents shift by at least 2 ranks), driven by a strong negative Adoption-Capability correlation among closed-source high-capability agents within this subset. This is precisely why we rest the framework's validity claim on the broader n=35 test rather than the SWE-bench overlap. AgentPulse surfaces deployment signal absent from benchmarks; it is a methodology, not a ground-truth ranking. The framework, all collected signals, scoring outputs, and evaluation harness are released under CC BY 4.0.