Michael C. Cooper

Ali Hossein Gharari Foomani, Michael Cooper, Russell Greiner et al.

A survival dataset describes a set of instances (e.g. patients) and provides, for each, either the time until an event (e.g. death), or the censoring time (e.g. when lost to follow-up - which is a lower bound on the time until the event). We consider the challenge of survival prediction: learning, from such data, a predictive model that can produce an individual survival distribution for a novel instance. Many contemporary methods of survival prediction implicitly assume that the event and censoring distributions are independent conditional on the instance's covariates - a strong assumption that is difficult to verify (as we observe only one outcome for each instance) and which can induce significant bias when it does not hold. This paper presents a parametric model of survival that extends modern non-linear survival analysis by relaxing the assumption of conditional independence. On synthetic and semi-synthetic data, our approach significantly improves estimates of survival distributions compared to the standard that assumes conditional independence in the data.

Michael Cooper, Rohan Wadhawan, John Michael Giorgi et al.

Decision-makers often possess insufficient information to render a confident decision. In these cases, the decision-maker can often undertake actions to acquire the necessary information about the problem at hand, e.g., by consulting knowledgeable authorities or by conducting experiments. Importantly, different levers of information acquisition come with different costs, posing the challenge of selecting the actions that are both informative and cost-effective. In this work, we propose CuriosiTree, a heuristic-based, test-time policy for zero-shot information acquisition in large language models (LLMs). CuriosiTree employs a greedy tree search to estimate the expected information gain of each action and strategically chooses actions based on a balance of anticipated information gain and associated cost. Empirical validation in a clinical diagnosis simulation shows that CuriosiTree enables cost-effective integration of heterogenous sources of information, and outperforms baseline action selection strategies in selecting action sequences that enable accurate diagnosis.