Gilson Adamczuk Oliveira

Vinicius Bortolini, Gilson Adamczuk Oliveira, Erick Oliveira Rodrigues et al.

Interval wind speed forecasting is essential for the efficient integration of wind energy into power systems, as it accounts for the inherent uncertainty of wind resources. This study presents a systematic literature review focused on hybrid approaches to interval forecasting of wind generation, exploring the combination of deep learning, modal decomposition, and statistical methods. To guide the paper selection, Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) was applied for topic modeling, enabling the identification of patterns and research trends. The findings emphasize that integrating hybrid models with decomposition techniques-such as Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)-enhances forecast accuracy and reliability by narrowing prediction intervals without compromising coverage. Regarding interval construction, most studies adopt a dual-model strategy, independently forecasting the lower and upper bounds. Input data are commonly decomposed using techniques like EMD, EEMD, or VMD, which extract frequency-based components. These components serve as inputs to models such as LSTM or ELM, trained separately for each bound. This approach allows for targeted modeling of uncertainty, improving flexibility and precision, Interval quality is typically evaluated through metrics that balance coverage and interval width. The review also highlights challenges, including the lack of standardized evaluation metrics, computational complexity, and limited real-world validation. Overall, the study reinforces the value of interval forecasting for wind energy operations and offers insights for advancing model robustness and decision-making.

Eduardo Luiz Alba, Gilson Adamczuk Oliveira, Matheus Henrique Dal Molin Ribeiro et al.

Electricity expense management presents significant challenges, as this resource is susceptible to various influencing factors. In universities, the demand for this resource is rapidly growing with institutional expansion and has a significant environmental impact. In this study, the machine learning models long short-term memory (LSTM), random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were trained with historical consumption data from the Federal Institute of Paraná (IFPR) over the last seven years and climatic variables to forecast electricity consumption 12 months ahead. Datasets from two campuses were adopted. To improve model performance, feature selection was performed using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), and hyperparameter optimization was carried out using genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The results indicate that the proposed cooperative ensemble learning approach named Weaker Separator Booster (WSB) exhibited the best performance for datasets. Specifically, it achieved an sMAPE of 13.90% and MAE of 1990.87 kWh for the IFPR-Palmas Campus and an sMAPE of 18.72% and MAE of 465.02 kWh for the Coronel Vivida Campus. The SHAP analysis revealed distinct feature importance patterns across the two IFPR campuses. A commonality that emerged was the strong influence of lagged time-series values and a minimal influence of climatic variables.

João Henrique Pereira Machado, Gilson Adamczuk Oliveira, Érick Oliveira Rodrigues

In this work, we utilize image segmentation to visually identify blood vessels in retinal examination images. This process is typically carried out manually. However, we can employ heuristic methods and machine learning to automate or at least expedite the process. In this context, we propose a cross-platform, open-source, and responsive software that allows users to manually segment a retinal image. The purpose is to use the user-segmented image to retrain machine learning algorithms, thereby enhancing future automated segmentation results. Moreover, the software also incorporates and applies certain image filters established in the literature to improve vessel visualization. We propose the first solution of this kind in the literature. This is the inaugural integrated software that embodies the aforementioned attributes: open-source, responsive, and cross-platform. It offers a comprehensive solution encompassing manual vessel segmentation, as well as the automated execution of classification algorithms to refine predictive models.