Ioannis Athanasiadis

Ioannis Athanasiadis, Anmar Karmush, Michael Felsberg

In deep learning, functional similarity evaluation quantifies the extent to which independently trained models learn similar input--output relationships. In model stitching, functional similarity is framed as representation forward compatibility, i.e., whether the representations of two models can be aligned to solve a given task. Recent studies, however, highlight a critical limitation: models relying on different information cues can still produce compatible representations, making them appear misleadingly similar (Smith et al., 2025). We attribute this failure to standard model stitching being inherently blind to the invariance properties of the stitched models. To address this limitation, we introduce the forward--backward compatibility requirement under which we formulate the invariance-aware model stitching. Through analyzing key stitching configurations, we study the interplay between forward and backward compatibility, showing that invariance-aware model stitching provides a more principled approach to functional similarity evaluation while revealing functional discrepancies previously obscured.

Ilias Tsoumas, Georgios Giannarakis, Vasileios Sitokonstantinou et al.

In contrast to the rapid digitalization of several industries, agriculture suffers from low adoption of smart farming tools. While AI-driven digital agriculture tools can offer high-performing predictive functionalities, they lack tangible quantitative evidence on their benefits to the farmers. Field experiments can derive such evidence, but are often costly, time consuming and hence limited in scope and scale of application. To this end, we propose an observational causal inference framework for the empirical evaluation of the impact of digital tools on target farm performance indicators (e.g., yield in this case). This way, we can increase farmers' trust via enhancing the transparency of the digital agriculture market and accelerate the adoption of technologies that aim to secure farmer income resilience and global agricultural sustainability. As a case study, we designed and implemented a recommendation system for the optimal sowing time of cotton based on numerical weather predictions, which was used by a farmers' cooperative during the growing season of 2021. We then leverage agricultural knowledge, collected yield data, and environmental information to develop a causal graph of the farm system. Using the back-door criterion, we identify the impact of sowing recommendations on the yield and subsequently estimate it using linear regression, matching, inverse propensity score weighting and meta-learners. The results reveal that a field sown according to our recommendations exhibited a statistically significant yield increase that ranged from 12% to 17%, depending on the method. The effect estimates were robust, as indicated by the agreement among the estimation methods and four successful refutation tests. We argue that this approach can be implemented for decision support systems of other fields, extending their evaluation beyond a performance assessment of internal functionalities.

Vasileios Sitokonstantinou, Emiliano Díaz Salas Porras, Jordi Cerdà Bautista et al.

In a changing climate, sustainable agriculture is essential for food security and environmental health. However, it is challenging to understand the complex interactions among its biophysical, social, and economic components. Predictive machine learning (ML), with its capacity to learn from data, is leveraged in sustainable agriculture for applications like yield prediction and weather forecasting. Nevertheless, it cannot explain causal mechanisms and remains descriptive rather than prescriptive. To address this gap, we propose causal ML, which merges ML's data processing with causality's ability to reason about change. This facilitates quantifying intervention impacts for evidence-based decision-making and enhances predictive model robustness. We showcase causal ML through eight diverse applications that benefit stakeholders across the agri-food chain, including farmers, policymakers, and researchers.

Ilias Tsoumas, Georgios Giannarakis, Vasileios Sitokonstantinou et al.

In contrast to the rapid digitalization of several industries, agriculture suffers from low adoption of climate-smart farming tools. Even though AI-driven digital agriculture can offer high-performing predictive functionalities, it lacks tangible quantitative evidence on its benefits to the farmers. Field experiments can derive such evidence, but are often costly and time consuming. To this end, we propose an observational causal inference framework for the empirical evaluation of the impact of digital tools on target farm performance indicators. This way, we can increase farmers' trust by enhancing the transparency of the digital agriculture market, and in turn accelerate the adoption of technologies that aim to increase productivity and secure a sustainable and resilient agriculture against a changing climate. As a case study, we perform an empirical evaluation of a recommendation system for optimal cotton sowing, which was used by a farmers' cooperative during the growing season of 2021. We leverage agricultural knowledge to develop a causal graph of the farm system, we use the back-door criterion to identify the impact of recommendations on the yield and subsequently estimate it using several methods on observational data. The results show that a field sown according to our recommendations enjoyed a significant increase in yield (12% to 17%).

Johan Edstedt, Ioannis Athanasiadis, Mårten Wadenbäck et al.

Feature matching is a challenging computer vision task that involves finding correspondences between two images of a 3D scene. In this paper we consider the dense approach instead of the more common sparse paradigm, thus striving to find all correspondences. Perhaps counter-intuitively, dense methods have previously shown inferior performance to their sparse and semi-sparse counterparts for estimation of two-view geometry. This changes with our novel dense method, which outperforms both dense and sparse methods on geometry estimation. The novelty is threefold: First, we propose a kernel regression global matcher. Secondly, we propose warp refinement through stacked feature maps and depthwise convolution kernels. Thirdly, we propose learning dense confidence through consistent depth and a balanced sampling approach for dense confidence maps. Through extensive experiments we confirm that our proposed dense method, \textbf{D}ense \textbf{K}ernelized Feature \textbf{M}atching, sets a new state-of-the-art on multiple geometry estimation benchmarks. In particular, we achieve an improvement on MegaDepth-1500 of +4.9 and +8.9 AUC$@5^{\circ}$ compared to the best previous sparse method and dense method respectively. Our code is provided at https://github.com/Parskatt/dkm

Ioannis Athanasiadis, Fredrik Lindsten, Michael Felsberg

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are a popular framework for unsupervised learning and data generation. A plethora of methods have been proposed focusing on improving VAEs, with the incorporation of adversarial objectives and the integration of prior learning mechanisms being prominent directions. When it comes to the former, an indicative instance is the recently introduced family of Introspective VAEs aiming at ensuring that a low likelihood is assigned to unrealistic samples. In this study, we focus on the Soft-IntroVAE (S-IntroVAE), one of only two members of the Introspective VAE family, the other being the original IntroVAE. We select S-IntroVAE for its state-of-the-art status and its training stability. In particular, we investigate the implication of incorporating a multimodal and trainable prior into this S-IntroVAE. Namely, we formulate the prior as a third player and show that when trained in cooperation with the decoder constitutes an effective way for prior learning, which shares the Nash Equilibrium with the vanilla S-IntroVAE. Furthermore, based on a modified formulation of the optimal ELBO in S-IntroVAE, we develop theoretically motivated regularizations, namely (i) adaptive variance clipping to stabilize training when learning the prior and (ii) responsibility regularization to discourage the formation of inactive prior modes. Finally, we perform a series of targeted experiments on a 2D density estimation benchmark and in an image generation setting comprised of the (F)-MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets demonstrating the effect of prior learning in S-IntroVAE in generation and representation learning.

Ron van Bree, Diego Marcos, Ioannis Athanasiadis

Biophysical models offer valuable insights into climate-phenology relationships in both natural and agricultural settings. However, there are substantial structural discrepancies across models which require site-specific recalibration, often yielding inconsistent predictions under similar climate scenarios. Machine learning methods offer data-driven solutions, but often lack interpretability and alignment with existing knowledge. We present a phenology model describing dormancy in fruit trees, integrating conventional biophysical models with a neural network to address their structural disparities. We evaluate our hybrid model in an extensive case study predicting cherry tree phenology in Japan, South Korea and Switzerland. Our approach consistently outperforms both traditional biophysical and machine learning models in predicting blooming dates across years. Additionally, the neural network's adaptability facilitates parameter learning for specific tree varieties, enabling robust generalization to new sites without site-specific recalibration. This hybrid model leverages both biophysical constraints and data-driven flexibility, offering a promising avenue for accurate and interpretable phenology modeling.

Ilias Tsoumas, Vasileios Sitokonstantinou, Georgios Giannarakis et al.

Pesticides serve as a common tool in agricultural pest control but significantly contribute to the climate crisis. To combat this, Integrated Pest Management (IPM) stands as a climate-smart alternative. Despite its potential, IPM faces low adoption rates due to farmers' skepticism about its effectiveness. To address this challenge, we introduce an advanced data analysis framework tailored to enhance IPM adoption. Our framework provides i) robust pest population predictions across diverse environments with invariant and causal learning, ii) interpretable pest presence predictions using transparent models, iii) actionable advice through counterfactual explanations for in-season IPM interventions, iv) field-specific treatment effect estimations, and v) assessments of the effectiveness of our advice using causal inference. By incorporating these features, our framework aims to alleviate skepticism and encourage wider adoption of IPM practices among farmers.

Eva van Tegelen, George van Voorn, Ioannis Athanasiadis et al.

Forecasting system behaviour near and across bifurcations is crucial for identifying potential shifts in dynamical systems. While machine learning has recently been used to learn critical transitions and bifurcation structures from data, most studies remain limited as they exclusively focus on discrete-time methods and local bifurcations. To address these limitations, we use Neural Ordinary Differential Equations which provide a data-driven framework for learning system dynamics. Our results show that Neural Ordinary Differential Equations can recover underlying bifurcation structures directly from time-series data by learning parameter-dependent vector fields. Notably, we demonstrate that Neural Ordinary Differential Equations can forecast bifurcations even beyond the parameter regions represented in the training data. We demonstrate our approach on three test cases: the Lorenz system transitioning from non-chaotic to chaotic behaviour, the Rössler system moving from chaos to period doubling, and a predator-prey model exhibiting collapse via a global bifurcation.

Ilias Tsoumas, Dimitrios Bormpoudakis, Vasileios Sitokonstantinou et al.

In causal inference, whether through randomized controlled trials or observational studies, access to both treated and control units is essential for estimating the effect of a treatment on an outcome of interest. When treatment assignment is random, the average treatment effect (ATE) can be estimated directly by comparing outcomes between groups. In non-randomized settings, various techniques are employed to adjust for confounding and approximate the counterfactual scenario to recover an unbiased ATE. A common challenge, especially in observational studies, is the absence of units clearly labeled as controls-that is, units known not to have received the treatment. To address this, we propose positive-unlabeled (PU) learning as a framework for identifying, with high confidence, control units from a pool of unlabeled ones, using only the available treated (positive) units. We evaluate this approach using both simulated and real-world data. We construct a causal graph with diverse relationships and use it to generate synthetic data under various scenarios, assessing how reliably the method recovers control groups that allow estimates of true ATE. We also apply our approach to real-world data on optimal sowing and fertilizer treatments in sustainable agriculture. Our findings show that PU learning can successfully identify control (negative) units from unlabeled data based only on treated units and, through the resulting control group, estimate an ATE that closely approximates the true value. This work has important implications for observational causal inference, especially in fields where randomized experiments are difficult or costly. In domains such as earth, environmental, and agricultural sciences, it enables a plethora of quasi-experiments by leveraging available earth observation and climate data, particularly when treated units are available but control units are lacking.

Alkis Sygkounas, Ioannis Athanasiadis, Andreas Persson et al.

Integrating human expertise with machine learning is crucial for applications demanding high accuracy and safety, such as autonomous driving. This study introduces Interactive Double Deep Q-network (iDDQN), a Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) approach that enhances Reinforcement Learning (RL) by merging human insights directly into the RL training process, improving model performance. Our proposed iDDQN method modifies the Q-value update equation to integrate human and agent actions, establishing a collaborative approach for policy development. Additionally, we present an offline evaluative framework that simulates the agent's trajectory as if no human intervention had occurred, to assess the effectiveness of human interventions. Empirical results in simulated autonomous driving scenarios demonstrate that iDDQN outperforms established approaches, including Behavioral Cloning (BC), HG-DAgger, Deep Q-Learning from Demonstrations (DQfD), and vanilla DRL in leveraging human expertise for improving performance and adaptability.

Ioannis Athanasiadis, Panagiotis Mousouliotis, Loukas Petrou

Transfer learning is one of the subjects undergoing intense study in the area of machine learning. In object recognition and object detection there are known experiments for the transferability of parameters, but not for neural networks which are suitable for object detection in real time embedded applications, such as the SqueezeDet neural network. We use transfer learning to accelerate the training of SqueezeDet to a new group of classes. Also, experiments are conducted to study the transferability and co-adaptation phenomena introduced by the transfer learning process. To accelerate training, we propose a new implementation of the SqueezeDet training which provides a faster pipeline for data processing and achieves 1.8 times speedup compared to the initial implementation. Finally, we created a mechanism for automatic hyperparameter optimization using an empirical method.