Huaqing Xie

Qin Chen, Jinfeng Ge, Huaqing Xie et al.

This paper explores the potential impacts of large language models (LLMs) on the Chinese labor market. We analyze occupational exposure to LLM capabilities by incorporating human expertise and LLM classifications, following the methodology of Eloundou et al. (2023). The results indicate a positive correlation between occupational exposure and both wage levels and experience premiums at the occupation level. This suggests that higher-paying and experience-intensive jobs may face greater exposure risks from LLM-powered software. We then aggregate occupational exposure at the industry level to obtain industrial exposure scores. Both occupational and industrial exposure scores align with expert assessments. Our empirical analysis also demonstrates a distinct impact of LLMs, which deviates from the routinization hypothesis. We present a stylized theoretical framework to better understand this deviation from previous digital technologies. By incorporating entropy-based information theory into the task-based framework, we propose an AI learning theory that reveals a different pattern of LLM impacts compared to the routinization hypothesis.

Huaqing Xie

Autonomous agents operating in open-world tasks -- where the completion boundary is not given in advance -- face denominator blindness: they systematically underestimate the scope of the target space. Forage V1 addressed this through co-evolving evaluation (an independent Evaluator discovers what "complete" means) and method isolation (Evaluator and Planner cannot see each other's code). V2 extends the architecture from a single expedition to a learning organization: experience accumulates across runs, transfers across model capabilities, and institutional safeguards prevent knowledge degradation. We demonstrate two claims across three task types (web scraping, API queries, mathematical reasoning). Knowledge accumulation: over six runs, knowledge entries grow from 0 to 54, and denominator estimates stabilize as domain understanding deepens. Knowledge transfer: a weaker agent (Sonnet) seeded with a stronger agent's (Opus) knowledge narrows a 6.6pp coverage gap to 1.1pp, halves cost (9.40 to 5.13 USD), converges in half the rounds (mean 4.5 vs. 7.0), and three independent seeded runs arrive at exactly the same denominator estimate (266), suggesting organizational knowledge calibrates evaluation itself. V2's contribution is architectural: it designs institutions -- audit separation, contract protocols, organizational memory -- that make any agent more reliable upon entry. The accumulated experience is organizational, model-agnostic, and transferable, stored as readable documents that any future agent inherits regardless of provider or capability level.