Yanqing Yang

Qin Chen, Jinfeng Ge, Huaqing Xie et al.

This paper explores the potential impacts of large language models (LLMs) on the Chinese labor market. We analyze occupational exposure to LLM capabilities by incorporating human expertise and LLM classifications, following the methodology of Eloundou et al. (2023). The results indicate a positive correlation between occupational exposure and both wage levels and experience premiums at the occupation level. This suggests that higher-paying and experience-intensive jobs may face greater exposure risks from LLM-powered software. We then aggregate occupational exposure at the industry level to obtain industrial exposure scores. Both occupational and industrial exposure scores align with expert assessments. Our empirical analysis also demonstrates a distinct impact of LLMs, which deviates from the routinization hypothesis. We present a stylized theoretical framework to better understand this deviation from previous digital technologies. By incorporating entropy-based information theory into the task-based framework, we propose an AI learning theory that reveals a different pattern of LLM impacts compared to the routinization hypothesis.

Zi Wang, Xingcheng Xu, Yanqing Yang et al.

We propose a deep learning framework, DL-opt, designed to efficiently solve for optimal policies in quantifiable general equilibrium trade models. DL-opt integrates (i) a nested fixed point (NFXP) formulation of the optimization problem, (ii) automatic implicit differentiation to enhance gradient descent for solving unilateral optimal policies, and (iii) a best-response dynamics approach for finding Nash equilibria. Utilizing DL-opt, we solve for non-cooperative tariffs and industrial subsidies across 7 economies and 44 sectors, incorporating sectoral external economies of scale. Our quantitative analysis reveals significant sectoral heterogeneity in Nash policies: Nash industrial subsidies increase with scale elasticities, whereas Nash tariffs decrease with trade elasticities. Moreover, we show that global dual competition, involving both tariffs and industrial subsidies, results in lower tariffs and higher welfare outcomes compared to a global tariff war. These findings highlight the importance of considering sectoral heterogeneity and policy combinations in understanding global economic competition.

Xingcheng Xu, Zihao Pan, Haipeng Zhang et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable proficiency on solving diverse problems. However, their generalization ability is not always satisfying and the generalization problem is common for generative transformer models in general. Researchers take basic mathematical tasks like n-digit addition or multiplication as important perspectives for investigating their generalization behaviors. It is observed that when training models on n-digit operations (e.g., additions) in which both input operands are n-digit in length, models generalize successfully on unseen n-digit inputs (in-distribution (ID) generalization), but fail miserably on longer, unseen cases (out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization). We bring this unexplained performance drop into attention and ask whether there is systematic OOD generalization. Towards understanding LLMs, we train various smaller language models which may share the same underlying mechanism. We discover that the strong ID generalization stems from structured representations, while behind the unsatisfying OOD performance, the models still exhibit clear learned algebraic structures. Specifically, these models map unseen OOD inputs to outputs with learned equivalence relations in the ID domain, which we call the equivalence generalization. These findings deepen our knowledge regarding the generalizability of generative models including LLMs, and provide insights into potential avenues for improvement.

Yanqing Yang, Xingcheng Xu, Jinfeng Ge et al.

This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the factors contributing to the performance differences among these models. Our findings indicate that the average forecast errors of machine learning models are generally lower than those of traditional econometric models or expert forecasts, particularly in periods of economic stability. However, during certain inflection points, although machine learning models still outperform traditional econometric models, expert forecasts may exhibit greater accuracy in some instances due to experts' more comprehensive understanding of the macroeconomic environment and real-time economic variables. In addition to macroeconomic forecasting, this paper employs interpretable machine learning methods to identify the key attributive variables from different machine learning models, aiming to enhance the understanding and evaluation of their contributions to macroeconomic fluctuations.

Xingcheng Xu, Zibo Zhao, Haipeng Zhang et al.

Transformer-based models excel in various tasks but their generalization capabilities, especially in arithmetic reasoning, remain incompletely understood. Arithmetic tasks provide a controlled framework to explore these capabilities, yet performance anomalies persist, such as inconsistent effectiveness in multiplication and erratic generalization in modular addition (e.g., modulo 100 vs. 101). This paper develops a unified theoretical framework for understanding the generalization behaviors of transformers in arithmetic tasks, focusing on length generalization. Through detailed analysis of addition, multiplication, and modular operations, we reveal that translation invariance in addition aligns with relative positional encoding for robust generalization, while base mismatch in modular operations disrupts this alignment. Experiments across GPT-family models validate our framework, confirming its ability to predict generalization behaviors. Our work highlights the importance of task structure and training data distribution for achieving data-efficient and structure-aware training, providing a systematic approach to understanding of length generalization in transformers.