V. Roshan Joseph

Hanyu Zhang, Mathieu Tanneau, Chaofan Huang et al.

The growing penetration of intermittent, renewable generation in US power grids, especially wind and solar generation, results in increased operational uncertainty. In that context, accurate forecasts are critical, especially for wind generation, which exhibits large variability and is historically harder to predict. To overcome this challenge, this work proposes a novel Bundle-Predict-Reconcile (BPR) framework that integrates asset bundling, machine learning, and forecast reconciliation techniques. The BPR framework first learns an intermediate hierarchy level (the bundles), then predicts wind power at the asset, bundle, and fleet level, and finally reconciles all forecasts to ensure consistency. This approach effectively introduces an auxiliary learning task (predicting the bundle-level time series) to help the main learning tasks. The paper also introduces new asset-bundling criteria that capture the spatio-temporal dynamics of wind power time series. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted on an industry-size dataset of 283 wind farms in the MISO footprint. The experiments consider short-term and day-ahead forecasts, and evaluates a large variety of forecasting models that include weather predictions as covariates. The results demonstrate the benefits of BPR, which consistently and significantly improves forecast accuracy over baselines, especially at the fleet level.

V. Roshan Joseph

It is common to split a dataset into training and testing sets before fitting a statistical or machine learning model. However, there is no clear guidance on how much data should be used for training and testing. In this article we show that the optimal splitting ratio is $\sqrt{p}:1$, where $p$ is the number of parameters in a linear regression model that explains the data well.

Akhil Vakayil, V. Roshan Joseph

In this work, we develop a method named Twinning, for partitioning a dataset into statistically similar twin sets. Twinning is based on SPlit, a recently proposed model-independent method for optimally splitting a dataset into training and testing sets. Twinning is orders of magnitude faster than the SPlit algorithm, which makes it applicable to Big Data problems such as data compression. Twinning can also be used for generating multiple splits of a given dataset to aid divide-and-conquer procedures and $k$-fold cross validation.

V. Roshan Joseph, Akhil Vakayil

In this article we propose an optimal method referred to as SPlit for splitting a dataset into training and testing sets. SPlit is based on the method of Support Points (SP), which was initially developed for finding the optimal representative points of a continuous distribution. We adapt SP for subsampling from a dataset using a sequential nearest neighbor algorithm. We also extend SP to deal with categorical variables so that SPlit can be applied to both regression and classification problems. The implementation of SPlit on real datasets shows substantial improvement in the worst-case testing performance for several modeling methods compared to the commonly used random splitting procedure.