Sjoerd van Straten

Marwan Hassani, Tamara Verbeek, Sjoerd van Straten

Predictive process monitoring (PPM) focuses on predicting future process trajectories, including next activity predictions. This is crucial in dynamic environments where processes change or face uncertainty. However, current frameworks often assume a static environment, overlooking dynamic characteristics and concept drifts. This results in catastrophic forgetting, where training while focusing merely on new data distribution negatively impacts the performance on previously learned data distributions. Continual learning addresses, among others, the challenges related to mitigating catastrophic forgetting. This paper proposes a novel approach called Continual Next Activity Prediction with Prompts (CNAPwP), which adapts the DualPrompt algorithm for next activity prediction to improve accuracy and adaptability while mitigating catastrophic forgetting. We introduce new datasets with recurring concept drifts, alongside a task-specific forgetting metric that measures the prediction accuracy gap between initial occurrence and subsequent task occurrences. Extensive testing on three synthetic and two real-world datasets representing several setups of recurrent drifts shows that CNAPwP achieves SOTA or competitive results compared to five baselines, demonstrating its potential applicability in real-world scenarios. An open-source implementation of our method, together with the datasets and results, is available at: https://github.com/SvStraten/CNAPwP.

Sjoerd van Straten, Alessandro Padella, Marwan Hassani

Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) enables forecasting future events or outcomes of ongoing business process instances based on event logs. However, deep learning PPM approaches are often limited by the low variability and small size of real-world event logs. To address this, we introduce SiamSA-PPM, a novel self-supervised learning framework that combines Siamese learning with Statistical Augmentation for Predictive Process Monitoring. It employs three novel statistically grounded transformation methods that leverage control-flow semantics and frequent behavioral patterns to generate realistic, semantically valid new trace variants. These augmented views are used within a Siamese learning setup to learn generalizable representations of process prefixes without the need for labeled supervision. Extensive experiments on real-life event logs demonstrate that SiamSA-PPM achieves competitive or superior performance compared to the SOTA in both next activity and final outcome prediction tasks. Our results further show that statistical augmentation significantly outperforms random transformations and improves variability in the data, highlighting SiamSA-PPM as a promising direction for training data enrichment in process prediction.