Sercan Ö. Arık

Si-An Chen, Chun-Liang Li, Nate Yoder et al.

Real-world time-series datasets are often multivariate with complex dynamics. To capture this complexity, high capacity architectures like recurrent- or attention-based sequential deep learning models have become popular. However, recent work demonstrates that simple univariate linear models can outperform such deep learning models on several commonly used academic benchmarks. Extending them, in this paper, we investigate the capabilities of linear models for time-series forecasting and present Time-Series Mixer (TSMixer), a novel architecture designed by stacking multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs). TSMixer is based on mixing operations along both the time and feature dimensions to extract information efficiently. On popular academic benchmarks, the simple-to-implement TSMixer is comparable to specialized state-of-the-art models that leverage the inductive biases of specific benchmarks. On the challenging and large scale M5 benchmark, a real-world retail dataset, TSMixer demonstrates superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art alternatives. Our results underline the importance of efficiently utilizing cross-variate and auxiliary information for improving the performance of time series forecasting. We present various analyses to shed light into the capabilities of TSMixer. The design paradigms utilized in TSMixer are expected to open new horizons for deep learning-based time series forecasting. The implementation is available at https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/tsmixer

Nicasia Beebe-Wang, Sayna Ebrahimi, Jinsung Yoon et al.

Real-world time series data that commonly reflect sequential human behavior are often uniquely irregularly sampled and sparse, with highly nonuniform sampling over time and entities. Yet, commonly-used pretraining and augmentation methods for time series are not specifically designed for such scenarios. In this paper, we present PAITS (Pretraining and Augmentation for Irregularly-sampled Time Series), a framework for identifying suitable pretraining strategies for sparse and irregularly sampled time series datasets. PAITS leverages a novel combination of NLP-inspired pretraining tasks and augmentations, and a random search to identify an effective strategy for a given dataset. We demonstrate that different datasets benefit from different pretraining choices. Compared with prior methods, our approach is better able to consistently improve pretraining across multiple datasets and domains. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/irregular_timeseries_pretraining}.

Defu Cao, Furong Jia, Sercan O Arik et al.

The past decade has witnessed significant advances in time series modeling with deep learning. While achieving state-of-the-art results, the best-performing architectures vary highly across applications and domains. Meanwhile, for natural language processing, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) has demonstrated impressive performance via training one general-purpose model across various textual datasets. It is intriguing to explore whether GPT-type architectures can be effective for time series, capturing the intrinsic dynamic attributes and leading to significant accuracy improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, TEMPO, that can effectively learn time series representations. We focus on utilizing two essential inductive biases of the time series task for pre-trained models: (i) decomposition of the complex interaction between trend, seasonal and residual components; and (ii) introducing the design of prompts to facilitate distribution adaptation in different types of time series. TEMPO expands the capability for dynamically modeling real-world temporal phenomena from data within diverse domains. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of TEMPO over state-of-the-art methods on zero shot setting for a number of time series benchmark datasets. This performance gain is observed not only in scenarios involving previously unseen datasets but also in scenarios with multi-modal inputs. This compelling finding highlights TEMPO's potential to constitute a foundational model-building framework.

Hongjin Su, Howard Yen, Mengzhou Xia et al.

Existing retrieval benchmarks primarily consist of information-seeking queries (e.g., aggregated questions from search engines) where keyword or semantic-based retrieval is usually sufficient. However, many complex real-world queries require in-depth reasoning to identify relevant documents that go beyond surface form matching. For example, finding documentation for a coding question requires understanding the logic and syntax of the functions involved. To better benchmark retrieval on such challenging queries, we introduce BRIGHT, the first text retrieval benchmark that requires intensive reasoning to retrieve relevant documents. Our dataset consists of 1,384 real-world queries spanning diverse domains, such as economics, psychology, mathematics, and coding. These queries are drawn from naturally occurring and carefully curated human data. Extensive evaluation reveals that even state-of-the-art retrieval models perform poorly on BRIGHT. The leading model on the MTEB leaderboard (Muennighoff et al., 2023) SFR-Embedding-Mistral (Meng et al., 2024), which achieves a score of 59.0 nDCG@10,1 produces a score of nDCG@10 of 18.3 on BRIGHT. We show that incorporating explicit reasoning about the query improves retrieval performance by up to 12.2 points. Moreover, incorporating retrieved documents from the top-performing retriever boosts question-answering performance. We believe that BRIGHT paves the way for future research on retrieval systems in more realistic and challenging settings.

Jiefeng Chen, Jinsung Yoon, Sayna Ebrahimi et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently shown great advances in a variety of tasks, including natural language understanding and generation. However, their use in high-stakes decision-making scenarios is still limited due to the potential for errors. Selective prediction is a technique that can be used to improve the reliability of the LLMs by allowing them to abstain from making predictions when they are unsure of the answer. In this work, we propose a novel framework for adaptation with self-evaluation to improve the selective prediction performance of LLMs. Our framework is based on the idea of using parameter-efficient tuning to adapt the LLM to the specific task at hand while improving its ability to perform self-evaluation. We evaluate our method on a variety of question-answering (QA) datasets and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art selective prediction methods. For example, on the CoQA benchmark, our method improves the AUACC from 91.23% to 92.63% and improves the AUROC from 74.61% to 80.25%.

Serdar Ozsoy, Shadi Hamdan, Sercan Ö. Arik et al.

Self-supervised learning allows AI systems to learn effective representations from large amounts of data using tasks that do not require costly labeling. Mode collapse, i.e., the model producing identical representations for all inputs, is a central problem to many self-supervised learning approaches, making self-supervised tasks, such as matching distorted variants of the inputs, ineffective. In this article, we argue that a straightforward application of information maximization among alternative latent representations of the same input naturally solves the collapse problem and achieves competitive empirical results. We propose a self-supervised learning method, CorInfoMax, that uses a second-order statistics-based mutual information measure that reflects the level of correlation among its arguments. Maximizing this correlative information measure between alternative representations of the same input serves two purposes: (1) it avoids the collapse problem by generating feature vectors with non-degenerate covariances; (2) it establishes relevance among alternative representations by increasing the linear dependence among them. An approximation of the proposed information maximization objective simplifies to a Euclidean distance-based objective function regularized by the log-determinant of the feature covariance matrix. The regularization term acts as a natural barrier against feature space degeneracy. Consequently, beyond avoiding complete output collapse to a single point, the proposed approach also prevents dimensional collapse by encouraging the spread of information across the whole feature space. Numerical experiments demonstrate that CorInfoMax achieves better or competitive performance results relative to the state-of-the-art SSL approaches.

Xi Ye, Ruoxi Sun, Sercan Ö. Arik et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable advancements in natural language understanding and generation. However, one major issue towards their widespread deployment in the real world is that they can generate "hallucinated" answers that are not factual. Towards this end, this paper focuses on improving LLMs by grounding their responses in retrieved passages and by providing citations. We propose a new framework, AGREE, Adaptation for GRounding EnhancEment, that improves the grounding from a holistic perspective. Our framework tunes LLMs to selfground the claims in their responses and provide accurate citations to retrieved documents. This tuning on top of the pre-trained LLMs requires well-grounded responses (with citations) for paired queries, for which we introduce a method that can automatically construct such data from unlabeled queries. The selfgrounding capability of tuned LLMs further grants them a test-time adaptation (TTA) capability that can actively retrieve passages to support the claims that have not been grounded, which iteratively improves the responses of LLMs. Across five datasets and two LLMs, our results show that the proposed tuningbased AGREE framework generates superior grounded responses with more accurate citations compared to prompting-based approaches and post-hoc citing-based approaches

Rui Wang, Yihe Dong, Sercan Ö. Arik et al.

Temporal distributional shifts, with underlying dynamics changing over time, frequently occur in real-world time series and pose a fundamental challenge for deep neural networks (DNNs). In this paper, we propose a novel deep sequence model based on the Koopman theory for time series forecasting: Koopman Neural Forecaster (KNF) which leverages DNNs to learn the linear Koopman space and the coefficients of chosen measurement functions. KNF imposes appropriate inductive biases for improved robustness against distributional shifts, employing both a global operator to learn shared characteristics and a local operator to capture changing dynamics, as well as a specially-designed feedback loop to continuously update the learned operators over time for rapidly varying behaviors. We demonstrate that \ours{} achieves superior performance compared to the alternatives, on multiple time series datasets that are shown to suffer from distribution shifts.

Jiefeng Chen, Jinsung Yoon, Sayna Ebrahimi et al.

Selective prediction aims to learn a reliable model that abstains from making predictions when uncertain. These predictions can then be deferred to humans for further evaluation. As an everlasting challenge for machine learning, in many real-world scenarios, the distribution of test data is different from the training data. This results in more inaccurate predictions, and often increased dependence on humans, which can be difficult and expensive. Active learning aims to lower the overall labeling effort, and hence human dependence, by querying the most informative examples. Selective prediction and active learning have been approached from different angles, with the connection between them missing. In this work, we introduce a new learning paradigm, active selective prediction, which aims to query more informative samples from the shifted target domain while increasing accuracy and coverage. For this new paradigm, we propose a simple yet effective approach, ASPEST, that utilizes ensembles of model snapshots with self-training with their aggregated outputs as pseudo labels. Extensive experiments on numerous image, text and structured datasets, which suffer from domain shifts, demonstrate that ASPEST can significantly outperform prior work on selective prediction and active learning (e.g. on the MNIST$\to$SVHN benchmark with the labeling budget of 100, ASPEST improves the AUACC metric from 79.36% to 88.84%) and achieves more optimal utilization of humans in the loop.

Ruoxi Sun, Sercan Ö. Arik, Rajarishi Sinha et al.

Text-to-SQL aims to automate the process of generating SQL queries on a database from natural language text. In this work, we propose "SQLPrompt", tailored to improve the few-shot prompting capabilities of Text-to-SQL for Large Language Models (LLMs). Our methods include innovative prompt design, execution-based consistency decoding strategy which selects the SQL with the most consistent execution outcome among other SQL proposals, and a method that aims to improve performance by diversifying the SQL proposals during consistency selection with different prompt designs ("MixPrompt") and foundation models ("MixLLMs"). We show that \emph{SQLPrompt} outperforms previous approaches for in-context learning with few labeled data by a large margin, closing the gap with finetuning state-of-the-art with thousands of labeled data.

Chun-Hao Chang, Jinsung Yoon, Sercan Arik et al.

Anomaly detection (AD) plays an important role in numerous applications. We focus on two understudied aspects of AD that are critical for integration into real-world applications. First, most AD methods cannot incorporate labeled data that are often available in practice in small quantities and can be crucial to achieve high AD accuracy. Second, most AD methods are not interpretable, a bottleneck that prevents stakeholders from understanding the reason behind the anomalies. In this paper, we propose a novel AD framework that adapts a white-box model class, Generalized Additive Models, to detect anomalies using a partial identification objective which naturally handles noisy or heterogeneous features. In addition, the proposed framework, DIAD, can incorporate a small amount of labeled data to further boost anomaly detection performances in semi-supervised settings. We demonstrate the superiority of our framework compared to previous work in both unsupervised and semi-supervised settings using diverse tabular datasets. For example, under 5 labeled anomalies DIAD improves from 86.2\% to 89.4\% AUC by learning AD from unlabeled data. We also present insightful interpretations that explain why DIAD deems certain samples as anomalies.

Aya Abdelsalam Ismail, Sercan Ö. Arik, Jinsung Yoon et al.

The need for reliable model explanations is prominent for many machine learning applications, particularly for tabular and time-series data as their use cases often involve high-stakes decision making. Towards this goal, we introduce a novel interpretable modeling framework, Interpretable Mixture of Experts (IME), that yields high accuracy, comparable to `black-box' Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) in many cases, along with useful interpretability capabilities. IME consists of an assignment module and a mixture of experts, with each sample being assigned to a single expert for prediction. We introduce multiple options for IME based on the assignment and experts being interpretable. When the experts are chosen to be interpretable such as linear models, IME yields an inherently-interpretable architecture where the explanations produced by IME are the exact descriptions of how the prediction is computed. In addition to constituting a standalone inherently-interpretable architecture, IME has the premise of being integrated with existing DNNs to offer interpretability to a subset of samples while maintaining the accuracy of the DNNs. Through extensive experiments on 15 tabular and time-series datasets, IME is demonstrated to be more accurate than single interpretable models and perform comparably with existing state-of-the-art DNNs in accuracy. On most datasets, IME even outperforms DNNs, while providing faithful explanations. Lastly, IME's explanations are compared to commonly-used post-hoc explanations methods through a user study -- participants are able to better predict the model behavior when given IME explanations, while finding IME's explanations more faithful and trustworthy.

Jinsung Yoon, Kihyuk Sohn, Chun-Liang Li et al.

Semi-supervised anomaly detection is a common problem, as often the datasets containing anomalies are partially labeled. We propose a canonical framework: Semi-supervised Pseudo-labeler Anomaly Detection with Ensembling (SPADE) that isn't limited by the assumption that labeled and unlabeled data come from the same distribution. Indeed, the assumption is often violated in many applications - for example, the labeled data may contain only anomalies unlike unlabeled data, or unlabeled data may contain different types of anomalies, or labeled data may contain only 'easy-to-label' samples. SPADE utilizes an ensemble of one class classifiers as the pseudo-labeler to improve the robustness of pseudo-labeling with distribution mismatch. Partial matching is proposed to automatically select the critical hyper-parameters for pseudo-labeling without validation data, which is crucial with limited labeled data. SPADE shows state-of-the-art semi-supervised anomaly detection performance across a wide range of scenarios with distribution mismatch in both tabular and image domains. In some common real-world settings such as model facing new types of unlabeled anomalies, SPADE outperforms the state-of-the-art alternatives by 5% AUC in average.

Mohammadreza Pourreza, Ruoxi Sun, Hailong Li et al.

Recent advances in Text-to-SQL have largely focused on the SQLite dialect, neglecting the diverse landscape of SQL dialects like BigQuery and PostgreSQL. This limitation is due to the diversity in SQL syntaxes and functions, along with the high cost of collecting and curating SQL-specific training data. To address this, we introduce SQL-GEN, a framework for generating high-quality synthetic training data for any SQL dialect, guided by readily available dialect-specific tutorials. SQL-GEN significantly improves cross-dialect Text-to-SQL performance, boosting execution accuracy by up to 20\% over existing methods. This performance gain narrows the gap with models trained on large-scale human-annotated data. Furthermore, combining synthetic data from SQL-GEN with human-annotated data yields additional improvements of up to 5.6\%. To unify multi-dialect capabilities within a single model, we propose a novel Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) initialization that leverages the shared knowledge across dialects. Our approach merges self-attention layers from dialect-specific models and initializes expert gates using dialect-specific keywords. This leads to a versatile model optimized for multiple SQL dialects, outperforming single-dialect models and significantly enhancing overall performance.

Jinsung Yoon, Sercan O Arik, Yanfei Chen et al.

Embeddings extracted by pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) have significant potential to improve information retrieval and search. Beyond the zero-shot setup in which they are being conventionally used, being able to take advantage of the information from the relevant query-corpus paired data can further boost the LLM capabilities. In this paper, we propose a novel method, Search-Adaptor, for customizing LLMs for information retrieval in an efficient and robust way. Search-Adaptor modifies the embeddings generated by pre-trained LLMs, and can be integrated with any LLM, including those only available via prediction APIs. On multiple English, multilingual, and multimodal retrieval datasets, we show consistent and significant performance benefits for Search-Adaptor -- e.g., more than 5% improvements for Google Embedding APIs in nDCG@10 averaged over 14 BEIR datasets.

Zachary Izzo, Jinsung Yoon, Sercan O. Arik et al.

In applications involving sensitive data, such as finance and healthcare, the necessity for preserving data privacy can be a significant barrier to machine learning model development. Differential privacy (DP) has emerged as one canonical standard for provable privacy. However, DP's strong theoretical guarantees often come at the cost of a large drop in its utility for machine learning, and DP guarantees themselves can be difficult to interpret. In this work, we propose a novel privacy notion, membership inference privacy (MIP), to address these challenges. We give a precise characterization of the relationship between MIP and DP, and show that MIP can be achieved using less amount of randomness compared to the amount required for guaranteeing DP, leading to a smaller drop in utility. MIP guarantees are also easily interpretable in terms of the success rate of membership inference attacks. Our theoretical results also give rise to a simple algorithm for guaranteeing MIP which can be used as a wrapper around any algorithm with a continuous output, including parametric model training.

Yunhao Ge, Sercan Ö. Arik, Jinsung Yoon et al.

Learning the causal structure behind data is invaluable for improving generalization and obtaining high-quality explanations. We propose a novel framework, Invariant Structure Learning (ISL), that is designed to improve causal structure discovery by utilizing generalization as an indication. ISL splits the data into different environments, and learns a structure that is invariant to the target across different environments by imposing a consistency constraint. An aggregation mechanism then selects the optimal classifier based on a graph structure that reflects the causal mechanisms in the data more accurately compared to the structures learnt from individual environments. Furthermore, we extend ISL to a self-supervised learning setting where accurate causal structure discovery does not rely on any labels. This self-supervised ISL utilizes invariant causality proposals by iteratively setting different nodes as targets. On synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that ISL accurately discovers the causal structure, outperforms alternative methods, and yields superior generalization for datasets with significant distribution shifts.

Jinsung Yoon, Raj Sinha, Sercan O Arik et al.

Embeddings from Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as critical components in various applications, particularly for information retrieval. While high-dimensional embeddings generally demonstrate superior performance as they contain more salient information, their practical application is frequently hindered by elevated computational latency and the associated higher cost. To address these challenges, we propose Matryoshka-Adaptor, a novel tuning framework designed for the customization of LLM embeddings. Matryoshka-Adaptor facilitates substantial dimensionality reduction while maintaining comparable performance levels, thereby achieving a significant enhancement in computational efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Our framework directly modifies the embeddings from pre-trained LLMs which is designed to be seamlessly integrated with any LLM architecture, encompassing those accessible exclusively through black-box APIs. Also, it exhibits efficacy in both unsupervised and supervised learning settings. A rigorous evaluation conducted across a diverse corpus of English, multilingual, and multimodal datasets consistently reveals substantial gains with Matryoshka-Adaptor. Notably, with Google and OpenAI Embedding APIs, Matryoshka-Adaptor achieves a reduction in dimensionality ranging from two- to twelve-fold without compromising performance across multiple BEIR datasets.

Sayna Ebrahimi, Sercan O. Arik, Tomas Pfister

For visual document understanding (VDU), self-supervised pretraining has been shown to successfully generate transferable representations, yet, effective adaptation of such representations to distribution shifts at test-time remains to be an unexplored area. We propose DocTTA, a novel test-time adaptation method for documents, that does source-free domain adaptation using unlabeled target document data. DocTTA leverages cross-modality self-supervised learning via masked visual language modeling, as well as pseudo labeling to adapt models learned on a \textit{source} domain to an unlabeled \textit{target} domain at test time. We introduce new benchmarks using existing public datasets for various VDU tasks, including entity recognition, key-value extraction, and document visual question answering. DocTTA shows significant improvements on these compared to the source model performance, up to 1.89\% in (F1 score), 3.43\% (F1 score), and 17.68\% (ANLS score), respectively. Our benchmark datasets are available at \url{https://saynaebrahimi.github.io/DocTTA.html}.

Ruoxi Sun, Chun-Liang Li, Sercan O. Arik et al.

Accurate estimation of output quantiles is crucial in many use cases, where it is desired to model the range of possibility. Modeling target distribution at arbitrary quantile levels and at arbitrary input attribute levels are important to offer a comprehensive picture of the data, and requires the quantile function to be expressive enough. The quantile function describing the target distribution using quantile levels is critical for quantile regression. Although various parametric forms for the distributions (that the quantile function specifies) can be adopted, an everlasting problem is selecting the most appropriate one that can properly approximate the data distributions. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric and data-driven approach, Neural Spline Search (NSS), to represent the observed data distribution without parametric assumptions. NSS is flexible and expressive for modeling data distributions by transforming the inputs with a series of monotonic spline regressions guided by symbolic operators. We demonstrate that NSS outperforms previous methods on synthetic, real-world regression and time-series forecasting tasks.

Sayna Ebrahimi, Sercan O. Arik, Tejas Nama et al.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) demonstrate remarkable image-language capabilities, but their widespread use faces challenges in cost-effective training and adaptation. Existing approaches often necessitate expensive language model retraining and limited adaptability. Additionally, the current focus on zero-shot performance improvements offers insufficient guidance for task-specific tuning. We propose CROME, an efficient vision-language instruction tuning framework. It features a novel gated cross-modal adapter that effectively combines visual and textual representations prior to input into a frozen LLM. This lightweight adapter, trained with minimal parameters, enables efficient cross-modal understanding. Notably, CROME demonstrates superior zero-shot performance on standard visual question answering and instruction-following benchmarks. Moreover, it yields fine-tuning with exceptional parameter efficiency, competing with task-specific specialist state-of-the-art methods. CROME demonstrates the potential of pre-LM alignment for building scalable, adaptable, and parameter-efficient multimodal models.

Helen Zhou, Sercan O. Arik, Jingtao Wang

Time-series forecasts play a critical role in business planning. However, forecasters typically optimize objectives that are agnostic to downstream business goals and thus can produce forecasts misaligned with business preferences. In this work, we demonstrate that optimization of conventional forecasting metrics can often lead to sub-optimal downstream business performance. Focusing on the inventory management setting, we derive an efficient procedure for computing and optimizing proxies of common downstream business metrics in an end-to-end differentiable manner. We explore a wide range of plausible cost trade-off scenarios, and empirically demonstrate that end-to-end optimization often outperforms optimization of standard business-agnostic forecasting metrics (by up to 45.7% for a simple scaling model, and up to 54.0% for an LSTM encoder-decoder model). Finally, we discuss how our findings could benefit other business contexts.

Yihe Dong, Sercan O. Arik

Feature selection has been widely used to alleviate compute requirements during training, elucidate model interpretability, and improve model generalizability. We propose SLM -- Sparse Learnable Masks -- a canonical approach for end-to-end feature selection that scales well with respect to both the feature dimension and the number of samples. At the heart of SLM lies a simple but effective learnable sparse mask, which learns which features to select, and gives rise to a novel objective that provably maximizes the mutual information (MI) between the selected features and the labels, which can be derived from a quadratic relaxation of mutual information from first principles. In addition, we derive a scaling mechanism that allows SLM to precisely control the number of features selected, through a novel use of sparsemax. This allows for more effective learning as demonstrated in ablation studies. Empirically, SLM achieves state-of-the-art results against a variety of competitive baselines on eight benchmark datasets, often by a significant margin, especially on those with real-world challenges such as class imbalance.

Bowen Jin, Hansi Zeng, Zhenrui Yue et al.

Efficiently acquiring external knowledge and up-to-date information is essential for effective reasoning and text generation in large language models (LLMs). Prompting advanced LLMs with reasoning capabilities to use search engines during inference is often suboptimal, as the LLM might not fully possess the capability on how to interact optimally with the search engine. This paper introduces Search-R1, an extension of reinforcement learning (RL) for reasoning frameworks where the LLM learns to autonomously generate (multiple) search queries during step-by-step reasoning with real-time retrieval. Search-R1 optimizes LLM reasoning trajectories with multi-turn search interactions, leveraging retrieved token masking for stable RL training and a simple outcome-based reward function. Experiments on seven question-answering datasets show that Search-R1 improves performance by 41% (Qwen2.5-7B) and 20% (Qwen2.5-3B) over various RAG baselines under the same setting. This paper further provides empirical insights into RL optimization methods, LLM choices, and response length dynamics in retrieval-augmented reasoning. The code and model checkpoints are available at https://github.com/PeterGriffinJin/Search-R1.

Chuizheng Meng, Yihe Dong, Sercan Ö. Arık et al.

Estimation of temporal counterfactual outcomes from observed history is crucial for decision-making in many domains such as healthcare and e-commerce, particularly when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) suffer from high cost or impracticality. For real-world datasets, modeling time-dependent confounders is challenging due to complex dynamics, long-range dependencies and both past treatments and covariates affecting the future outcomes. In this paper, we introduce Counterfactual Self-Supervised Transformer (COSTAR), a novel approach that integrates self-supervised learning for improved historical representations. We propose a component-wise contrastive loss tailored for temporal treatment outcome observations and explain its effectiveness from the view of unsupervised domain adaptation. COSTAR yields superior performance in estimation accuracy and generalization to out-of-distribution data compared to existing models, as validated by empirical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Bowen Jin, Jinsung Yoon, Priyanka Kargupta et al.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated strong potential in training large language models (LLMs) capable of complex reasoning for real-world problem solving. More recently, RL has been leveraged to create sophisticated LLM-based search agents that adeptly combine reasoning with search engine use. While the use of RL for training search agents is promising, the optimal design of such agents remains not fully understood. In particular, key factors -- such as (1) reward formulation, (2) the choice and characteristics of the underlying LLM, and (3) the role of the search engine in the RL process -- require further investigation. In this work, we conduct comprehensive empirical studies to systematically investigate these and offer actionable insights. We highlight several key findings: format rewards are effective in improving final performance, whereas intermediate retrieval rewards have limited impact; the scale and initialization of the LLM (general-purpose vs. reasoning-specialized) significantly influence RL outcomes; and the choice of search engine plays a critical role in shaping RL training dynamics and the robustness of the trained agent during inference. These establish important guidelines for successfully building and deploying LLM-based search agents in real-world applications. Code is available at https://github.com/PeterGriffinJin/Search-R1.

Sayna Ebrahimi, Sercan O. Arik, Yihe Dong et al.

Multimodal large-scale pretraining has shown impressive performance for unstructured data such as language and image. However, a prevalent real-world scenario involves structured data types, tabular and time-series, along with unstructured data. Such scenarios have been understudied. To bridge this gap, we propose LANISTR, an attention-based framework to learn from LANguage, Image, and STRuctured data. The core of LANISTR's methodology is rooted in \textit{masking-based} training applied across both unimodal and multimodal levels. In particular, we introduce a new similarity-based multimodal masking loss that enables it to learn cross-modal relations from large-scale multimodal data with missing modalities. On two real-world datasets, MIMIC-IV (from healthcare) and Amazon Product Review (from retail), LANISTR demonstrates remarkable improvements, 6.6\% (in AUROC) and 14\% (in accuracy) when fine-tuned with 0.1\% and 0.01\% of labeled data, respectively, compared to the state-of-the-art alternatives. Notably, these improvements are observed even with very high ratio of samples (35.7\% and 99.8\% respectively) not containing all modalities, underlining the robustness of LANISTR to practical missing modality challenge. Our code and models will be available at https://github.com/google-research/lanistr

Zizhao Zhang, Han Zhang, Long Zhao et al.

Hierarchical structures are popular in recent vision transformers, however, they require sophisticated designs and massive datasets to work well. In this paper, we explore the idea of nesting basic local transformers on non-overlapping image blocks and aggregating them in a hierarchical way. We find that the block aggregation function plays a critical role in enabling cross-block non-local information communication. This observation leads us to design a simplified architecture that requires minor code changes upon the original vision transformer. The benefits of the proposed judiciously-selected design are threefold: (1) NesT converges faster and requires much less training data to achieve good generalization on both ImageNet and small datasets like CIFAR; (2) when extending our key ideas to image generation, NesT leads to a strong decoder that is 8$\times$ faster than previous transformer-based generators; and (3) we show that decoupling the feature learning and abstraction processes via this nested hierarchy in our design enables constructing a novel method (named GradCAT) for visually interpreting the learned model. Source code is available https://github.com/google-research/nested-transformer.

Chih-Kuan Yeh, Been Kim, Sercan O. Arik et al.

Human explanations of high-level decisions are often expressed in terms of key concepts the decisions are based on. In this paper, we study such concept-based explainability for Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). First, we define the notion of completeness, which quantifies how sufficient a particular set of concepts is in explaining a model's prediction behavior based on the assumption that complete concept scores are sufficient statistics of the model prediction. Next, we propose a concept discovery method that aims to infer a complete set of concepts that are additionally encouraged to be interpretable, which addresses the limitations of existing methods on concept explanations. To define an importance score for each discovered concept, we adapt game-theoretic notions to aggregate over sets and propose ConceptSHAP. Via proposed metrics and user studies, on a synthetic dataset with apriori-known concept explanations, as well as on real-world image and language datasets, we validate the effectiveness of our method in finding concepts that are both complete in explaining the decisions and interpretable. (The code is released at https://github.com/chihkuanyeh/concept_exp)

Zizhao Zhang, Han Zhang, Sercan O. Arik et al.

Collecting large-scale data with clean labels for supervised training of neural networks is practically challenging. Although noisy labels are usually cheap to acquire, existing methods suffer a lot from label noise. This paper targets at the challenge of robust training at high label noise regimes. The key insight to achieve this goal is to wisely leverage a small trusted set to estimate exemplar weights and pseudo labels for noisy data in order to reuse them for supervised training. We present a holistic framework to train deep neural networks in a way that is highly invulnerable to label noise. Our method sets the new state of the art on various types of label noise and achieves excellent performance on large-scale datasets with real-world label noise. For instance, on CIFAR100 with a $40\%$ uniform noise ratio and only 10 trusted labeled data per class, our method achieves $80.2{\pm}0.3\%$ classification accuracy, where the error rate is only $1.4\%$ higher than a neural network trained without label noise. Moreover, increasing the noise ratio to $80\%$, our method still maintains a high accuracy of $75.5{\pm}0.2\%$, compared to the previous best accuracy $48.2\%$. Source code available: https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/ieg

Hongjin Su, Ruoxi Sun, Jinsung Yoon et al.

Autonomous agents powered by large language models (LLMs) have the potential to enhance human capabilities, assisting with digital tasks from sending emails to performing data analysis. The abilities of existing LLMs at such tasks are often hindered by the lack of high-quality agent data from the corresponding environments they interact with. We propose Learn-by-interact, a data-centric framework to adapt LLM agents to any given environments without human annotations. Learn-by-interact synthesizes trajectories of agent-environment interactions based on documentations, and constructs instructions by summarizing or abstracting the interaction histories, a process called backward construction. We assess the quality of our synthetic data by using them in both training-based scenarios and training-free in-context learning (ICL), where we craft innovative retrieval approaches optimized for agents. Extensive experiments on SWE-bench, WebArena, OSWorld and Spider2-V spanning across realistic coding, web, and desktop environments show the effectiveness of Learn-by-interact in various downstream agentic tasks -- baseline results are improved by up to 12.2\% for ICL with Claude-3.5 and 19.5\% for training with Codestral-22B. We further demonstrate the critical role of backward construction, which provides up to 14.0\% improvement for training. Our ablation studies demonstrate the efficiency provided by our synthesized data in ICL and the superiority of our retrieval pipeline over alternative approaches like conventional retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). We expect that Learn-by-interact will serve as a foundation for agent data synthesis as LLMs are increasingly deployed at real-world environments.

Sungwon Han, Jinsung Yoon, Sercan O Arik et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs), with their remarkable ability to tackle challenging and unseen reasoning problems, hold immense potential for tabular learning, that is vital for many real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a novel in-context learning framework, FeatLLM, which employs LLMs as feature engineers to produce an input data set that is optimally suited for tabular predictions. The generated features are used to infer class likelihood with a simple downstream machine learning model, such as linear regression and yields high performance few-shot learning. The proposed FeatLLM framework only uses this simple predictive model with the discovered features at inference time. Compared to existing LLM-based approaches, FeatLLM eliminates the need to send queries to the LLM for each sample at inference time. Moreover, it merely requires API-level access to LLMs, and overcomes prompt size limitations. As demonstrated across numerous tabular datasets from a wide range of domains, FeatLLM generates high-quality rules, significantly (10% on average) outperforming alternatives such as TabLLM and STUNT.

Han Zhou, Xingchen Wan, Ruoxi Sun et al. · cambridge

Large language models, employed as multiple agents that interact and collaborate with each other, have excelled at solving complex tasks. The agents are programmed with prompts that declare their functionality, along with the topologies that orchestrate interactions across agents. Designing prompts and topologies for multi-agent systems (MAS) is inherently complex. To automate the entire design process, we first conduct an in-depth analysis of the design space aiming to understand the factors behind building effective MAS. We reveal that prompts together with topologies play critical roles in enabling more effective MAS design. Based on the insights, we propose Multi-Agent System Search (MASS), a MAS optimization framework that efficiently exploits the complex MAS design space by interleaving its optimization stages, from local to global, from prompts to topologies, over three stages: 1) block-level (local) prompt optimization; 2) workflow topology optimization; 3) workflow-level (global) prompt optimization, where each stage is conditioned on the iteratively optimized prompts/topologies from former stages. We show that MASS-optimized multi-agent systems outperform a spectrum of existing alternatives by a substantial margin. Based on the MASS-found systems, we finally propose design principles behind building effective multi-agent systems.

Mohammadreza Pourreza, Shayan Talaei, Ruoxi Sun et al.

Text-to-SQL is a challenging task involving multiple reasoning-intensive subtasks, including natural language understanding, database schema comprehension, and precise SQL query formulation. Existing approaches often rely on handcrafted reasoning paths with inductive biases that can limit their overall effectiveness. Motivated by the recent success of reasoning-enhanced models such as DeepSeek R1 and OpenAI o1, which effectively leverage reward-driven self-exploration to enhance reasoning capabilities and generalization, we propose a novel set of partial rewards tailored specifically for the Text-to-SQL task. Our reward set includes schema-linking, AI feedback, n-gram similarity, and syntax check, explicitly designed to address the reward sparsity issue prevalent in reinforcement learning (RL). Leveraging group relative policy optimization (GRPO), our approach explicitly encourages large language models (LLMs) to develop intrinsic reasoning skills necessary for accurate SQL query generation. With models of different sizes, we demonstrate that RL-only training with our proposed rewards consistently achieves higher accuracy and superior generalization compared to supervised fine-tuning (SFT). Remarkably, our RL-trained 14B-parameter model significantly outperforms larger proprietary models, e.g. o3-mini by 4% and Gemini-1.5-Pro-002 by 3% on the BIRD benchmark. These highlight the efficacy of our proposed RL-training framework with partial rewards for enhancing both accuracy and reasoning capabilities in Text-to-SQL tasks.

Xingchen Wan, Han Zhou, Ruoxi Sun et al. · cambridge

Recent advances in long-context large language models (LLMs) have led to the emerging paradigm of many-shot in-context learning (ICL), where it is observed that scaling many more demonstrating examples beyond the conventional few-shot setup in the context can lead to performance benefits. However, despite its promise, it is unclear what aspects dominate the benefits and whether simply scaling to more examples is the most effective way of improving many-shot ICL. In this work, we first provide an analysis of the factors driving many-shot ICL, and we find that 1) many-shot performance can still be attributed to often a few disproportionately influential examples and 2) identifying such influential examples ("optimize") and using them as demonstrations to regenerate new examples ("generate") can lead to further improvements. Inspired by the findings, we propose BRIDGE, an algorithm that alternates between the optimize step with Bayesian optimization to discover the influential sets of examples and the generate step to reuse this set to expand the reasoning paths of the examples back to the many-shot regime automatically. On Gemini, Claude, and Mistral LLMs of different sizes, we show that BRIDGE to significant improvements across a diverse set of tasks, including symbolic reasoning, numerical reasoning, and code generation.

Bowen Jin, Jinsung Yoon, Zhen Qin et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized artificial intelligence with capabilities in reasoning, coding, and communication, driving innovation across industries. Their true potential depends on effective alignment to ensure correct, trustworthy and ethical behavior, addressing challenges like misinformation, hallucinations, bias and misuse. While existing Reinforcement Learning (RL)-based alignment methods are notoriously complex, direct optimization approaches offer a simpler alternative. In this work, we introduce a novel direct optimization approach for LLM alignment by drawing on established Information Retrieval (IR) principles. We present a systematic framework that bridges LLM alignment and IR methodologies, mapping LLM generation and reward models to IR's retriever-reranker paradigm. Building on this foundation, we propose LLM Alignment as Retriever Preference Optimization (LarPO), a new alignment method that enhances overall alignment quality. Extensive experiments validate LarPO's effectiveness with 38.9 % and 13.7 % averaged improvement on AlpacaEval2 and MixEval-Hard respectively. Our work opens new avenues for advancing LLM alignment by integrating IR foundations, offering a promising direction for future research.

Do Xuan Long, Xingchen Wan, Hootan Nakhost et al.

Despite rapid advances in text-to-video synthesis, generated video quality remains critically dependent on precise user prompts. Existing test-time optimization methods, successful in other domains, struggle with the multi-faceted nature of video. In this work, we introduce VISTA (Video Iterative Self-improvemenT Agent), a novel multi-agent system that autonomously improves video generation through refining prompts in an iterative loop. VISTA first decomposes a user idea into a structured temporal plan. After generation, the best video is identified through a robust pairwise tournament. This winning video is then critiqued by a trio of specialized agents focusing on visual, audio, and contextual fidelity. Finally, a reasoning agent synthesizes this feedback to introspectively rewrite and enhance the prompt for the next generation cycle. Experiments on single- and multi-scene video generation scenarios show that while prior methods yield inconsistent gains, VISTA consistently improves video quality and alignment with user intent, achieving up to 60% pairwise win rate against state-of-the-art baselines. Human evaluators concur, preferring VISTA outputs in 66.4% of comparisons.

Xingchen Wan, Han Zhou, Ruoxi Sun et al. · cambridge

Text-to-image (T2I) models, while offering immense creative potential, are highly reliant on human intervention, posing significant usability challenges that often necessitate manual, iterative prompt engineering over often underspecified prompts. This paper introduces Maestro, a novel self-evolving image generation system that enables T2I models to autonomously self-improve generated images through iterative evolution of prompts, using only an initial prompt. Maestro incorporates two key innovations: 1) self-critique, where specialized multimodal LLM (MLLM) agents act as 'critics' to identify weaknesses in generated images, correct for under-specification, and provide interpretable edit signals, which are then integrated by a 'verifier' agent while preserving user intent; and 2) self-evolution, utilizing MLLM-as-a-judge for head-to-head comparisons between iteratively generated images, eschewing problematic images, and evolving creative prompt candidates that align with user intents. Extensive experiments on complex T2I tasks using black-box models demonstrate that Maestro significantly improves image quality over initial prompts and state-of-the-art automated methods, with effectiveness scaling with more advanced MLLM components. This work presents a robust, interpretable, and effective pathway towards self-improving T2I generation.

Maximillian Chen, Ruoxi Sun, Sercan Ö. Arık

Conversational assistants are increasingly popular across diverse real-world applications, highlighting the need for advanced multimodal speech modeling. Speech, as a natural mode of communication, encodes rich user-specific characteristics such as speaking rate and pitch, making it critical for effective interaction. Our work introduces a data-centric customization approach for efficiently enhancing multimodal understanding in conversational speech modeling. Central to our contributions is a novel multi-task learning paradigm that involves designing auxiliary tasks to utilize a small amount of speech data. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Spoken-SQuAD benchmark, using only 10% of the training data with open-weight models, establishing a robust and efficient framework for audio-centric conversational modeling. We also introduce ASK-QA, the first dataset for multi-turn spoken dialogue with ambiguous user requests and dynamic evaluation inputs. Code and data forthcoming.

Zichen Chen, Jiefeng Chen, Sercan Ö. Arik et al.

Deep research has revolutionized data analysis, yet data scientists still devote substantial time to manually crafting visualizations, highlighting the need for robust automation from natural language queries. However, current systems struggle with complex datasets containing multiple files and iterative refinement. Existing approaches, including simple single- or multi-agent systems, often oversimplify the task, focusing on initial query parsing while failing to robustly manage data complexity, code errors, or final visualization quality. In this paper, we reframe this challenge as a collaborative multi-agent problem. We introduce CoDA, a multi-agent system that employs specialized LLM agents for metadata analysis, task planning, code generation, and self-reflection. We formalize this pipeline, demonstrating how metadata-focused analysis bypasses token limits and quality-driven refinement ensures robustness. Extensive evaluations show CoDA achieves substantial gains in the overall score, outperforming competitive baselines by up to 41.5%. This work demonstrates that the future of visualization automation lies not in isolated code generation but in integrated, collaborative agentic workflows.

Sungwon Han, Seungeon Lee, Meeyoung Cha et al.

Time series forecasting uses historical data to predict future trends, leveraging the relationships between past observations and available features. In this paper, we propose RAFT, a retrieval-augmented time series forecasting method to provide sufficient inductive biases and complement the model's learning capacity. When forecasting the subsequent time frames, we directly retrieve historical data candidates from the training dataset with patterns most similar to the input, and utilize the future values of these candidates alongside the inputs to obtain predictions. This simple approach augments the model's capacity by externally providing information about past patterns via retrieval modules. Our empirical evaluations on ten benchmark datasets show that RAFT consistently outperforms contemporary baselines with an average win ratio of 86%.

Xingchen Wan, Ruoxi Sun, Hootan Nakhost et al.

Large language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities, but their performance is heavily reliant on effective prompt engineering. Automatic prompt optimization (APO) methods are designed to automate this and can be broadly categorized into those targeting instructions (instruction optimization, IO) vs. those targeting exemplars (exemplar optimization, EO). Despite their shared objective, these have evolved rather independently, with IO receiving more research attention recently. This paper seeks to bridge this gap by comprehensively comparing the performance of representative IO and EO techniques both isolation and combination on a diverse set of challenging tasks. Our findings reveal that intelligently reusing model-generated input-output pairs obtained from evaluating prompts on the validation set as exemplars, consistently improves performance on top of IO methods but is currently under-investigated. We also find that despite the recent focus on IO, how we select exemplars can outweigh how we optimize instructions, with EO strategies as simple as random search outperforming state-of-the-art IO methods with seed instructions without any optimization. Moreover, we observe a synergy between EO and IO, with optimal combinations surpassing the individual contributions. We conclude that studying exemplar optimization both as a standalone method and its optimal combination with instruction optimization remain a crucial aspect of APO and deserve greater consideration in future research, even in the era of highly capable instruction-following models.

Yihe Dong, Sercan Arik, Nathanael Yoder et al.

Feature engineering has demonstrated substantial utility for many machine learning workflows, such as in the small data regime or when distribution shifts are severe. Thus automating this capability can relieve much manual effort and improve model performance. Towards this, we propose AutoMAN, or Automated Mask-based Feature Engineering, an automated feature engineering framework that achieves high accuracy, low latency, and can be extended to heterogeneous and time-varying data. AutoMAN is based on effectively exploring the candidate transforms space, without explicitly manifesting transformed features. This is achieved by learning feature importance masks, which can be extended to support other modalities such as time series. AutoMAN learns feature transform importance end-to-end, incorporating a dataset's task target directly into feature engineering, resulting in state-of-the-art performance with significantly lower latency compared to alternatives.

Yusen Zhang, Ruoxi Sun, Yanfei Chen et al.

Addressing the challenge of effectively processing long contexts has become a critical issue for Large Language Models (LLMs). Two common strategies have emerged: 1) reducing the input length, such as retrieving relevant chunks by Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), and 2) expanding the context window limit of LLMs. However, both strategies have drawbacks: input reduction has no guarantee of covering the part with needed information, while window extension struggles with focusing on the pertinent information for solving the task. To mitigate these limitations, we propose Chain-of-Agents (CoA), a novel framework that harnesses multi-agent collaboration through natural language to enable information aggregation and context reasoning across various LLMs over long-context tasks. CoA consists of multiple worker agents who sequentially communicate to handle different segmented portions of the text, followed by a manager agent who synthesizes these contributions into a coherent final output. CoA processes the entire input by interleaving reading and reasoning, and it mitigates long context focus issues by assigning each agent a short context. We perform comprehensive evaluation of CoA on a wide range of long-context tasks in question answering, summarization, and code completion, demonstrating significant improvements by up to 10% over strong baselines of RAG, Full-Context, and multi-agent LLMs.

James Enouen, Hootan Nakhost, Sayna Ebrahimi et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have attracted huge interest in practical applications given their increasingly accurate responses and coherent reasoning abilities. Given their nature as black-boxes using complex reasoning processes on their inputs, it is inevitable that the demand for scalable and faithful explanations for LLMs' generated content will continue to grow. There have been major developments in the explainability of neural network models over the past decade. Among them, post-hoc explainability methods, especially Shapley values, have proven effective for interpreting deep learning models. However, there are major challenges in scaling up Shapley values for LLMs, particularly when dealing with long input contexts containing thousands of tokens and autoregressively generated output sequences. Furthermore, it is often unclear how to effectively utilize generated explanations to improve the performance of LLMs. In this paper, we introduce TextGenSHAP, an efficient post-hoc explanation method incorporating LM-specific techniques. We demonstrate that this leads to significant increases in speed compared to conventional Shapley value computations, reducing processing times from hours to minutes for token-level explanations, and to just seconds for document-level explanations. In addition, we demonstrate how real-time Shapley values can be utilized in two important scenarios, providing better understanding of long-document question answering by localizing important words and sentences; and improving existing document retrieval systems through enhancing the accuracy of selected passages and ultimately the final responses.

Ruoxi Sun, Sercan Ö. Arik, Alex Muzio et al.

Text-to-SQL, the process of translating natural language into Structured Query Language (SQL), represents a transformative application of large language models (LLMs), potentially revolutionizing how humans interact with data. This paper introduces the SQL-PaLM framework, a comprehensive solution for understanding and enhancing Text-to-SQL using LLMs, using in the learning regimes of few-shot prompting and instruction fine-tuning. With few-shot prompting, we explore the effectiveness of consistency decoding with execution-based error filtering. With instruction fine-tuning, we delve deep in understanding the critical paradigms that influence the performance of tuned LLMs. In particular, we investigate how performance can be improved through expanded training data coverage and diversity, synthetic data augmentation, and integrating query-specific database content. We propose a test-time selection method to further refine accuracy by integrating SQL outputs from multiple paradigms with execution feedback as guidance. Additionally, we tackle the practical challenge of navigating intricate databases with a significant number of tables and columns, proposing efficient techniques for accurately selecting relevant database elements to enhance Text-to-SQL performance. Our holistic approach yields substantial advancements in Text-to-SQL, as demonstrated on two key public benchmarks, Spider and BIRD. Through comprehensive ablations and error analyses, we shed light on the strengths and weaknesses of our framework, offering valuable insights into Text-to-SQL's future work.

Xingchen Wan, Ruoxi Sun, Hootan Nakhost et al.

A hallmark of modern large language models (LLMs) is their impressive general zero-shot and few-shot abilities, often elicited through in-context learning (ICL) via prompting. However, while highly coveted and being the most general, zero-shot performances in LLMs are still typically weaker due to the lack of guidance and the difficulty of applying existing automatic prompt design methods in general tasks when ground-truth labels are unavailable. In this study, we address this by presenting Universal Self-Adaptive Prompting (USP), an automatic prompt design approach specifically tailored for zero-shot learning (while compatible with few-shot). Requiring only a small amount of unlabeled data and an inference-only LLM, USP is highly versatile: to achieve universal prompting, USP categorizes a possible NLP task into one of the three possible task types and then uses a corresponding selector to select the most suitable queries and zero-shot model-generated responses as pseudo-demonstrations, thereby generalizing ICL to the zero-shot setup in a fully automated way. We evaluate USP with PaLM and PaLM 2 models and demonstrate performances that are considerably stronger than standard zero-shot baselines and often comparable to or even superior to few-shot baselines across more than 40 natural language understanding, natural language generation, and reasoning tasks.

Xingchen Wan, Ruoxi Sun, Hanjun Dai et al.

Modern large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities at sophisticated tasks, often through step-by-step reasoning similar to humans. This is made possible by their strong few and zero-shot abilities -- they can effectively learn from a handful of handcrafted, completed responses ("in-context examples"), or are prompted to reason spontaneously through specially designed triggers. Nonetheless, some limitations have been observed. First, performance in the few-shot setting is sensitive to the choice of examples, whose design requires significant human effort. Moreover, given the diverse downstream tasks of LLMs, it may be difficult or laborious to handcraft per-task labels. Second, while the zero-shot setting does not require handcrafting, its performance is limited due to the lack of guidance to the LLMs. To address these limitations, we propose Consistency-based Self-adaptive Prompting (COSP), a novel prompt design method for LLMs. Requiring neither handcrafted responses nor ground-truth labels, COSP selects and builds the set of examples from the LLM zero-shot outputs via carefully designed criteria that combine consistency, diversity and repetition. In the zero-shot setting for three different LLMs, we show that using only LLM predictions, COSP improves performance up to 15% compared to zero-shot baselines and matches or exceeds few-shot baselines for a range of reasoning tasks.

Sercan O. Arik, Nathanael C. Yoder, Tomas Pfister

Real-world time-series datasets often violate the assumptions of standard supervised learning for forecasting -- their distributions evolve over time, rendering the conventional training and model selection procedures suboptimal. In this paper, we propose a novel method, Self-Adaptive Forecasting (SAF), to modify the training of time-series forecasting models to improve their performance on forecasting tasks with such non-stationary time-series data. SAF integrates a self-adaptation stage prior to forecasting based on `backcasting', i.e. predicting masked inputs backward in time. This is a form of test-time training that creates a self-supervised learning problem on test samples before performing the prediction task. In this way, our method enables efficient adaptation of encoded representations to evolving distributions, leading to superior generalization. SAF can be integrated with any canonical encoder-decoder based time-series architecture such as recurrent neural networks or attention-based architectures. On synthetic and real-world datasets in domains where time-series data are known to be notoriously non-stationary, such as healthcare and finance, we demonstrate a significant benefit of SAF in improving forecasting accuracy.

Sana Tonekaboni, Chun-Liang Li, Sercan Arik et al.

Real-world time series data are often generated from several sources of variation. Learning representations that capture the factors contributing to this variability enables a better understanding of the data via its underlying generative process and improves performance on downstream machine learning tasks. This paper proposes a novel generative approach for learning representations for the global and local factors of variation in time series. The local representation of each sample models non-stationarity over time with a stochastic process prior, and the global representation of the sample encodes the time-independent characteristics. To encourage decoupling between the representations, we introduce counterfactual regularization that minimizes the mutual information between the two variables. In experiments, we demonstrate successful recovery of the true local and global variability factors on simulated data, and show that representations learned using our method yield superior performance on downstream tasks on real-world datasets. We believe that the proposed way of defining representations is beneficial for data modelling and yields better insights into the complexity of real-world data.