Zulong Chen

Jinyi Han, Tingyun Li, Shisong Chen et al.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks, they fundamentally lack self-awareness and frequently exhibit overconfidence, assigning high confidence scores to incorrect predictions. Accurate confidence estimation is therefore critical for enhancing the trustworthiness and reliability of LLM-generated outputs. However, existing approaches suffer from coarse-grained scoring mechanisms that fail to provide fine-grained, continuous confidence estimates throughout the generation process. To address these limitations, we introduce FineCE, a novel confidence estimation method that delivers accurate, fine-grained confidence scores during text generation. Specifically, we first develop a comprehensive pipeline for constructing training data that effectively captures the underlying probabilistic distribution of LLM responses, and then train a model to predict confidence scores for arbitrary text sequences in a supervised manner. Furthermore, we propose a Backward Confidence Integration (BCI) strategy that leverages information from the subsequent text to enhance confidence estimation for the current sequence during inference. We also introduce three strategies for identifying optimal positions to perform confidence estimation within the generation process. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that FineCE consistently outperforms existing classical confidence estimation methods. Our code and all baselines used in the paper are available on GitHub.

Rui Xu, Xintao Wang, Jiangjie Chen et al.

Can Large Language Models (LLMs) simulate humans in making important decisions? Recent research has unveiled the potential of using LLMs to develop role-playing language agents (RPLAs), mimicking mainly the knowledge and tones of various characters. However, imitative decision-making necessitates a more nuanced understanding of personas. In this paper, we benchmark the ability of LLMs in persona-driven decision-making. Specifically, we investigate whether LLMs can predict characters' decisions provided by the preceding stories in high-quality novels. Leveraging character analyses written by literary experts, we construct a dataset LIFECHOICE comprising 1,462 characters' decision points from 388 books. Then, we conduct comprehensive experiments on LIFECHOICE, with various LLMs and RPLA methodologies. The results demonstrate that state-of-the-art LLMs exhibit promising capabilities in this task, yet substantial room for improvement remains. Hence, we further propose the CHARMAP method, which adopts persona-based memory retrieval and significantly advances RPLAs on this task, achieving 5.03% increase in accuracy.

Chengyu Du, Jinyi Han, Yizhou Ying et al.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated that progressive refinement, rather than providing a single answer, results in more accurate and thoughtful outputs. However, existing methods often rely heavily on supervision signals to evaluate previous responses, making it difficult to assess output quality in more open-ended scenarios effectively. Additionally, these methods are typically designed for specific tasks, which limits their generalization to new domains. To address these limitations, we propose Progressive Thought Refinement (PTR), a framework that enables LLMs to refine their responses progressively. PTR operates in two phases: (1) Thought data construction stage: We propose a weak and strong model collaborative selection strategy to build a high-quality progressive refinement dataset to ensure logical consistency from thought to answers, and the answers are gradually refined in each round. (2) Thought-Mask Fine-Tuning Phase: We design a training structure to mask the "thought" and adjust loss weights to encourage LLMs to refine prior thought, teaching them to implicitly understand "how to improve" rather than "what is correct." Experimental results show that PTR significantly enhances LLM performance across ten diverse tasks (avg. from 49.6% to 53.5%) without task-specific fine-tuning. Notably, in more open-ended tasks, LLMs also demonstrate substantial improvements in the quality of responses beyond mere accuracy, suggesting that PTR truly teaches LLMs to self-improve over time.