Hanjing Zhu

Malcolm Wolff, Matthew Li, Ravi Kiran Selvam et al.

Despite significant advancements in time series forecasting, accurate modeling of time series with strong heterogeneity in magnitude and/or sparsity patterns remains challenging for state-of-the-art deep learning architectures. We identify several factors that lead existing models to systematically underperform on low-magnitude and sparse time series, including loss functions with implicit biases toward high-magnitude series, training-time sampling methods, and limitations of time series encoding methods. SPADE-S is a robust forecasting architecture that significantly reduces magnitude- and sparsity-based systematic biases and improves overall prediction accuracy. Empirical results demonstrate that SPADE-S outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches across a diverse set of use cases in demand forecasting. In particular, we show that, depending on the quantile forecast and magnitude of the series, SPADE-S can improve forecast accuracy by up to 15%. This results in P90 overall forecast accuracy gains of 2.21%, 6.58%, and 4.28%, and P50 forecast accuracy gains of 0.92%, 0.77%, and 1.95%, respectively, for each of three distinct datasets, ranging from 3 million to 700 million series, from a large online retailer.

Jiaming Xu, Hanjing Zhu

There has been a recent surge of interest in understanding the convergence of gradient descent (GD) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in overparameterized neural networks. Most previous works assume that the training data is provided a priori in a batch, while less attention has been paid to the important setting where the training data arrives in a stream. In this paper, we study the streaming data setup and show that with overparamterization and random initialization, the prediction error of two-layer neural networks under one-pass SGD converges in expectation. The convergence rate depends on the eigen-decomposition of the integral operator associated with the so-called neural tangent kernel (NTK). A key step of our analysis is to show a random kernel function converges to the NTK with high probability using the VC dimension and McDiarmid's inequality.