Huanfa Chen

Xiaowei Gao, Xinke Jiang, Dingyi Zhuang et al.

Traffic accidents present substantial challenges to human safety and socio-economic development in urban areas. Developing a reliable and responsible traffic accident prediction model is crucial to addressing growing public safety concerns and enhancing the safety of urban mobility systems. Traditional methods face limitations at fine spatiotemporal scales due to the sporadic nature of highrisk accidents and the predominance of non-accident characteristics. Furthermore, while most current models show promising occurrence prediction, they overlook the uncertainties arising from the inherent nature of accidents, and then fail to adequately map the hierarchical ranking of accident risk values for more precise insights. To address these issues, we introduce the Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Tweedie Graph Neural Network STZITDGNN -- the first uncertainty-aware probabilistic graph deep learning model in roadlevel traffic accident prediction for multisteps. This model integrates the interpretability of the statistical Tweedie family model and the expressive power of graph neural networks. Its decoder innovatively employs a compound Tweedie model,a Poisson distribution to model the frequency of accident occurrences and a Gamma distribution to assess injury severity, supplemented by a zeroinflated component to effectively identify exessive nonincident instances. Empirical tests using realworld traffic data from London, UK, demonstrate that the STZITDGNN surpasses other baseline models across multiple benchmarks and metrics, including accident risk value prediction, uncertainty minimisation, non-accident road identification and accident occurrence accuracy. Our study demonstrates that STZTIDGNN can effectively inform targeted road monitoring, thereby improving urban road safety strategies.

Natchapon Jongwiriyanurak, Zichao Zeng, June Moh Goo et al.

Road safety assessments are critical yet costly, especially in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), where most roads remain unrated. Traditional methods require expert annotation and training data, while supervised learning-based approaches struggle to generalise across regions. In this paper, we introduce \textit{V-RoAst}, a zero-shot Visual Question Answering (VQA) framework using Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to classify road safety attributes defined by the iRAP standard. We introduce the first open-source dataset from ThaiRAP, consisting of over 2,000 curated street-level images from Thailand annotated for this task. We evaluate Gemini-1.5-flash and GPT-4o-mini on this dataset and benchmark their performance against VGGNet and ResNet baselines. While VLMs underperform on spatial awareness, they generalise well to unseen classes and offer flexible prompt-based reasoning without retraining. Our results show that VLMs can serve as automatic road assessment tools when integrated with complementary data. This work is the first to explore VLMs for zero-shot infrastructure risk assessment and opens new directions for automatic, low-cost road safety mapping. Code and dataset: https://github.com/PongNJ/V-RoAst.

Xiaowei Gao, James Haworth, Ilya Ilyankou et al.

Predicting traffic accidents is the key to sustainable city management, which requires effective address of the dynamic and complex spatiotemporal characteristics of cities. Current data-driven models often struggle with data sparsity and typically overlook the integration of diverse urban data sources and the high-order dependencies within them. Additionally, they frequently rely on predefined topologies or weights, limiting their adaptability in spatiotemporal predictions. To address these issues, we introduce the Spatiotemporal Multiview Adaptive HyperGraph Learning (SMA-Hyper) model, a dynamic deep learning framework designed for traffic accident prediction. Building on previous research, this innovative model incorporates dual adaptive spatiotemporal graph learning mechanisms that enable high-order cross-regional learning through hypergraphs and dynamic adaptation to evolving urban data. It also utilises contrastive learning to enhance global and local data representations in sparse datasets and employs an advance attention mechanism to fuse multiple views of accident data and urban functional features, thereby enriching the contextual understanding of risk factors. Extensive testing on the London traffic accident dataset demonstrates that the SMA-Hyper model significantly outperforms baseline models across various temporal horizons and multistep outputs, affirming the effectiveness of its multiview fusion and adaptive learning strategies. The interpretability of the results further underscores its potential to improve urban traffic management and safety by leveraging complex spatiotemporal urban data, offering a scalable framework adaptable to diverse urban environments.