Héctor J. Hortúa

Héctor J. Hortúa, Luz Ángela García, Leonardo Castañeda C

Methods based on Deep Learning have recently been applied on astrophysical parameter recovery thanks to their ability to capture information from complex data. One of these methods is the approximate Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) which have demonstrated to yield consistent posterior distribution into the parameter space, helpful for uncertainty quantification. However, as any modern neural networks, they tend to produce overly confident uncertainty estimates and can introduce bias when BNNs are applied to data. In this work, we implement multiplicative normalizing flows (MNFs), a family of approximate posteriors for the parameters of BNNs with the purpose of enhancing the flexibility of the variational posterior distribution, to extract $Ω_m$, $h$, and $σ_8$ from the QUIJOTE simulations. We have compared this method with respect to the standard BNNs, and the flipout estimator. We found that MNFs combined with BNNs outperform the other models obtaining predictive performance with almost one order of magnitude larger that standard BNNs, $σ_8$ extracted with high accuracy ($r^2=0.99$), and precise uncertainty estimates. The latter implies that MNFs provide more realistic predictive distribution closer to the true posterior mitigating the bias introduced by the variational approximation and allowing to work with well-calibrated networks.

Daniela L. Ramos, Hector J. Hortua

Colorectal polyps are generally benign alterations that, if not identified promptly and managed successfully, can progress to cancer and cause affectations on the colon mucosa, known as adenocarcinoma. Today advances in Deep Learning have demonstrated the ability to achieve significant performance in image classification and detection in medical diagnosis applications. Nevertheless, these models are prone to overfitting, and making decisions based only on point estimations may provide incorrect predictions. Thus, to obtain a more informed decision, we must consider point estimations along with their reliable uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we built different Bayesian neural network approaches based on the flexibility of posterior distribution to develop semantic segmentation of colorectal polyp images. We found that these models not only provide state-of-the-art performance on the segmentation of this medical dataset but also, yield accurate uncertainty estimates. We applied multiplicative normalized flows(MNF) and reparameterization trick on the UNET, FPN, and LINKNET architectures tested with multiple backbones in deterministic and Bayesian versions. We report that the FPN + EfficientnetB7 architecture with MNF is the most promising option given its IOU of 0.94 and Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of 0.004, combined with its superiority in identifying difficult-to-detect colorectal polyps, which is effective in clinical areas where early detection prevents the development of colon cancer.

Héctor J. Hortúa, Andrés Mora-Valencia

Recently, deep learning techniques are gradually replacing traditional statistical and machine learning models as the first choice for price forecasting tasks. In this paper, we leverage probabilistic deep learning for inferring the volatility index VIX. We employ the probabilistic counterpart of WaveNet, Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), and Transformers. We show that TCN outperforms all models with an RMSE around 0.189. In addition, it has been well known that modern neural networks provide inaccurate uncertainty estimates. For solving this problem, we use the standard deviation scaling to calibrate the networks. Furthermore, we found out that MNF with Gaussian prior outperforms Reparameterization Trick and Flipout models in terms of precision and uncertainty predictions. Finally, we claim that MNF with Cauchy and LogUniform prior distributions yield well calibrated TCN and WaveNet networks being the former that best infer the VIX values.

Julieth Katherine Riveros, Paola Saavedra, Hector J. Hortua et al.

Next-generation galaxy surveys promise unprecedented precision in testing gravity at cosmological scales. However, realising this potential requires accurately modelling the non-linear cosmic web. We address this challenge by exploring conditional generative modelling to create 3D dark matter density fields via score-based (diffusion) and flow-based methods. Our results demonstrate the power of diffusion models to accurately reproduce the matter power spectra and bispectra, even for unseen configurations. They also offer a significant speed-up with slightly reduced accuracy, when flow-based reconstructing the probability distribution function, but they struggle with higher-order statistics. To improve conditional generation, we introduce a novel multi-output model to develop feature representations of the cosmological parameters. Our findings offer a powerful tool for exploring deviations from standard gravity, combining high precision with reduced computational cost, thus paving the way for more comprehensive and efficient cosmological analyses

Juan Manuel Liscano Fierro, Hector J. Hortua

Accurately classifying COVID-19 pneumonia in 3D CT scans remains a significant challenge in the field of medical image analysis. Although deterministic neural networks have shown promising results in this area, they provide only point estimates outputs yielding poor diagnostic in clinical decision-making. In this paper, we explore the use of Bayesian neural networks for classifying COVID-19 pneumonia in 3D CT scans providing uncertainties in their predictions. We compare deterministic networks and their Bayesian counterpart, enhancing the decision-making accuracy under uncertainty information. Remarkably, our findings reveal that lightweight architectures achieve the highest accuracy of 96\% after developing extensive hyperparameter tuning. Furthermore, the Bayesian counterpart of these architectures via Multiplied Normalizing Flow technique kept a similar performance along with calibrated uncertainty estimates. Finally, we have developed a 3D-visualization approach to explain the neural network outcomes based on SHAP values. We conclude that explainability along with uncertainty quantification will offer better clinical decisions in medical image analysis, contributing to ongoing efforts for improving the diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19 pneumonia.

Juan Alejandro Pinto Castro, Héctor J. Hortúa, Jorge Enrique García-Farieta et al.

Deep learning has emerged as a transformative methodology in modern cosmology, providing powerful tools to extract meaningful physical information from complex astronomical datasets. This paper implements a novel Bayesian graph deep learning framework for estimating key cosmological parameters in a primordial magnetic field (PMF) cosmology directly from simulated Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) maps. Our methodology utilizes DeepSphere, a spherical convolutional neural network architecture specifically designed to respect the spherical geometry of CMB data through HEALPix pixelization. To advance beyond deterministic point estimates and enable robust uncertainty quantification, we integrate Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) into the framework, capturing aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that reflect the model confidence in its predictions. The proposed approach demonstrates exceptional performance, achieving $R^{2}$ scores exceeding 0.89 for the magnetic parameter estimation. We further obtain well-calibrated uncertainty estimates through post-hoc training techniques including Variance Scaling and GPNormal. This integrated DeepSphere-BNNs framework not only delivers accurate parameter estimation from CMB maps with PMF contributions but also provides reliable uncertainty quantification, providing the necessary tools for robust cosmological inference in the era of precision cosmology.

Jorge Enrique García-Farieta, Héctor J Hortúa, Francisco-Shu Kitaura

The new generation of galaxy surveys will provide unprecedented data allowing us to test gravity at cosmological scales. A robust cosmological analysis of the large-scale structure demands exploiting the nonlinear information encoded in the cosmic web. Machine Learning techniques provide such tools, however, do not provide a priori assessment of uncertainties. This study aims at extracting cosmological parameters from modified gravity (MG) simulations through deep neural networks endowed with uncertainty estimations. We implement Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with an enriched approximate posterior distribution considering two cases: one with a single Bayesian last layer (BLL), and another one with Bayesian layers at all levels (FullB). We train both BNNs with real-space density fields and power-spectra from a suite of 2000 dark matter only particle mesh $N$-body simulations including modified gravity models relying on MG-PICOLA covering 256 $h^{-1}$ Mpc side cubical volumes with 128$^3$ particles. BNNs excel in accurately predicting parameters for $Ω_m$ and $σ_8$ and their respective correlation with the MG parameter. We find out that BNNs yield well-calibrated uncertainty estimates overcoming the over- and under-estimation issues in traditional neural networks. We observe that the presence of MG parameter leads to a significant degeneracy with $σ_8$ being one of the possible explanations of the poor MG predictions. Ignoring MG, we obtain a deviation of the relative errors in $Ω_m$ and $σ_8$ by at least $30\%$. Moreover, we report consistent results from the density field and power spectra analysis, and comparable results between BLL and FullB experiments which permits us to save computing time by a factor of two. This work contributes in setting the path to extract cosmological parameters from complete small cosmic volumes towards the highly nonlinear regime.

Hector J. Hortua

In this paper, we use The Quijote simulations in order to extract the cosmological parameters through Bayesian Neural Networks. This kind of model has a remarkable ability to estimate the associated uncertainty, which is one of the ultimate goals in the precision cosmology era. We demonstrate the advantages of BNNs for extracting more complex output distributions and non-Gaussianities information from the simulations.

Hector J. Hortua, Riccardo Volpi, Dimitri Marinelli et al.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are commonly used for their versatility in sampling from complicated probability distributions. However, as the dimension of the distribution gets larger, the computational costs for a satisfactory exploration of the sampling space become challenging. Adaptive MCMC methods employing a choice of proposal distribution can address this issue speeding up the convergence. In this paper we show an alternative way of performing adaptive MCMC, by using the outcome of Bayesian Neural Networks as the initial proposal for the Markov Chain. This combined approach increases the acceptance rate in the Metropolis-Hasting algorithm and accelerate the convergence of the MCMC while reaching the same final accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate the main advantages of this approach by constraining the cosmological parameters directly from Cosmic Microwave Background maps.

Hector J. Hortua, Luigi Malago, Riccardo Volpi

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) often result uncalibrated after training, usually tending towards overconfidence. Devising effective calibration methods with low impact in terms of computational complexity is thus of central interest. In this paper we present calibration methods for BNNs based on the alpha divergences from Information Geometry. We compare the use of alpha divergence in training and in calibration, and we show how the use in calibration provides better calibrated uncertainty estimates for specific choices of alpha and is more efficient especially for complex network architectures. We empirically demonstrate the advantages of alpha calibration in regression problems involving parameter estimation and inferred correlations between output uncertainties.

Héctor J. Hortúa, Riccardo Volpi, Luigi Malagò

Upcoming experiments such as Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) and Square Kilometre Array (SKA) are intended to measure the 21cm signal over a wide range of redshifts, representing an incredible opportunity in advancing our understanding about the nature of cosmic Reionization. At the same time these kind of experiments will present new challenges in processing the extensive amount of data generated, calling for the development of automated methods capable of precisely estimating physical parameters and their uncertainties. In this paper we employ Variational Inference, and in particular Bayesian Neural Networks, as an alternative to MCMC in 21 cm observations to report credible estimations for cosmological and astrophysical parameters and assess the correlations among them.

Hector J. Hortua, Riccardo Volpi, Dimitri Marinelli et al.

In this paper, we present the first study that compares different models of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) to predict the posterior distribution of the cosmological parameters directly from the Cosmic Microwave Background temperature and polarization maps. We focus our analysis on four different methods to sample the weights of the network during training: Dropout, DropConnect, Reparameterization Trick (RT), and Flipout. We find out that Flipout outperforms all other methods regardless of the architecture used, and provides tighter constraints for the cosmological parameters. Moreover we compare with MCMC posterior analysis obtaining comparable error correlation among parameters, with BNNs being orders of magnitude faster in inference, although less accurate. Thanks to the speed of the inference process with BNNs, the posterior distribution, outcome of the neural network, can be used as the initial proposal for the Markov Chain. We show that this combined approach increases the acceptance rate in the Metropolis-Hasting algorithm and accelerates the convergence of the MCMC, while reaching the same final accuracy. In the second part of the paper, we present a guide to the training and calibration of a successful multi-channel BNN for the CMB temperature and polarization map. We show how tuning the regularization parameter for the standard deviation of the approximate posterior on the weights in Flipout and RT we can produce unbiased and reliable uncertainty estimates, i.e., the regularizer acts like a hyperparameter analogous to the dropout rate in Dropout. Finally, we show how polarization, when combined with the temperature in a unique multi-channel tensor fed to a single BNN, helps to break degeneracies among parameters and provides stringent constraints.