Jonas Sievers

Jonas Sievers, Mardavij Roozbehani

Baseline estimation is critical to Demand Response (DR) settlement in electricity markets, yet existing machine learning methods remain limited in predictive performance, while methodologies from causal inference and counterfactual prediction are still underutilized in this domain. We introduce a Generalized Synthetic Control Method that builds on the classical Synthetic Control Method (SCM) from econometrics. While SCM provides a powerful framework for counterfactual estimation, classical SCM remains a static estimator: it fits the treated unit as a combination of contemporaneous donor units and therefore ignores predictable temporal structure in the residual error. We develop a generalized SCM framework that transforms baseline estimation into a dynamic counterfactual prediction problem by augmenting the donor representation with exogenous features, lagged treated load, and selected lagged donor signals. This enriched representation allows the estimator to capture autoregressive dependence, delayed donor-response patterns, and error-correction effects beyond the scope of standard SCM. The framework further accommodates nonlinear predictors when linear weighting is inadequate, with the greatest benefit arising in limited-data settings. Experiments on the Ausgrid smart-meter dataset show consistent improvements over classical SCM and strong benchmark methods, with the dominant performance gains driven by dynamic augmentation.

Pascal Henrich, Jonas Sievers, Maximilian Beichter et al.

Transformer-based reinforcement learning has emerged as a strong candidate for sequential control in residential energy management. In particular, the Decision Transformer can learn effective battery dispatch policies from historical data, thereby increasing photovoltaic self-consumption and reducing electricity costs. However, transformer models are typically too computationally demanding for deployment on resource-constrained residential controllers, where memory and latency constraints are critical. This paper investigates knowledge distillation to transfer the decision-making behaviour of high-capacity Decision Transformer policies to compact models that are more suitable for embedded deployment. Using the Ausgrid dataset, we train teacher models in an offline sequence-based Decision Transformer framework on heterogeneous multi-building data. We then distil smaller student models by matching the teachers' actions, thereby preserving control quality while reducing model size. Across a broad set of teacher-student configurations, distillation largely preserves control performance and even yields small improvements of up to 1%, while reducing the parameter count by up to 96%, the inference memory by up to 90%, and the inference time by up to 63%. Beyond these compression effects, comparable cost improvements are also observed when distilling into a student model of identical architectural capacity. Overall, our results show that knowledge distillation makes Decision Transformer control more applicable for residential energy management on resource-limited hardware.

Jonas Sievers, Thomas Blank

Electricity load forecasting is an essential task within smart grids to assist demand and supply balance. While advanced deep learning models require large amounts of high-resolution data for accurate short-term load predictions, fine-grained load profiles can expose users' electricity consumption behaviors, which raises privacy and security concerns. One solution to improve data privacy is federated learning, where models are trained locally on private data, and only the trained model parameters are merged and updated on a global server. Therefore, this paper presents a novel transformer-based deep learning approach with federated learning for short-term electricity load prediction. To evaluate our results, we benchmark our federated learning architecture against central and local learning and compare the performance of our model to long short-term memory models and convolutional neural networks. Our simulations are based on a dataset from a German university campus and show that transformer-based forecasting is a promising alternative to state-of-the-art models within federated learning.