Da Fan

John S. Schreck, David John Gagne, Charlie Becker et al.

Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is critical for understanding factors that drive weather and climate outcomes. Ensembles provide predictive uncertainty estimates and can be decomposed physically, but both physics and machine learning ensembles are computationally expensive. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but do not account for epistemic uncertainty.. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to those obtained from ensembles. Through applications of classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods, while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. In order to encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning in Earth System Science, we have developed a new Python package, MILES-GUESS (https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning.

Da Fan, Steven J. Greybush, David John Gagne et al.

Convection initiation (CI) nowcasting remains a challenging problem for both numerical weather prediction models and existing nowcasting algorithms. In this study, object-based probabilistic deep learning models are developed to predict CI based on multichannel infrared GOES-R satellite observations. The data come from patches surrounding potential CI events identified in Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Doppler weather radar products over the Great Plains region from June and July 2020 and June 2021. An objective radar-based approach is used to identify these events. The deep learning models significantly outperform the classical logistic model at lead times up to 1 hour, especially on the false alarm ratio. Through case studies, the deep learning model exhibits the dependence on the characteristics of clouds and moisture at multiple levels. Model explanation further reveals the model's decision-making process with different baselines. The explanation results highlight the importance of moisture and cloud features at different levels depending on the choice of baseline. Our study demonstrates the advantage of using different baselines in further understanding model behavior and gaining scientific insights.

Ding Linghu, Cheng Wang, Da Fan et al.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate exceptional performance on general-purpose tasks. however, transferring them to complex engineering domains such as space situational awareness (SSA) remains challenging owing to insufficient structural alignment with mission chains, the absence of higher-order cognitive supervision, and poor correspondence between data quality criteria and engineering specifications. The core bottleneck is the construction of high-quality supervised fine-tuning (SFT) datasets. To this end, we propose BD-FDG (Bloom's Taxonomy-based Domain-specific Fine-tuning Data Generation), a framework that addresses incomplete knowledge coverage, shallow cognitive depth, and limited quality controllability through three mechanisms: structured knowledge organization, cognitively layered question modeling, and automated quality control. The framework uses a knowledge tree to ensure structured corpus coverage, designs a question generation scheme spanning nine categories and six cognitive levels from Remember to Create to produce samples with a continuous difficulty gradient, and applies a multidimensional scoring pipeline to enforce domain rigor and consistency. Using BD-FDG, we construct SSA-SFT, a domain dataset of approximately 230K samples, and fine-tune Qwen3-8B to obtain SSA-LLM-8B. Experiments show that SSA-LLM-8B achieves relative BLEU-1 improvements of 144\% (no-think) and 176\% (think) on the domain test set and a win rate of 82.21\% over the baseline in arena comparisons, while largely preserving general benchmark performance (MMLU-Pro, MATH-500). These results validate SFT data construction driven by cognitive layering as an effective paradigm for complex engineering domains and provide a transferable framework for domain-specific LLM adaptation.

Da Fan, David John Gagne, Steven J. Greybush et al.

This study evaluated the probability and uncertainty forecasts of five recently proposed Bayesian deep learning methods relative to a deterministic residual neural network (ResNet) baseline for 0-1 h convective initiation (CI) nowcasting using GOES-16 satellite infrared observations. Uncertainty was assessed by how well probabilistic forecasts were calibrated and how well uncertainty separated forecasts with large and small errors. Most of the Bayesian deep learning methods produced probabilistic forecasts that outperformed the deterministic ResNet, with one, the initial-weights ensemble + Monte Carlo (MC) dropout, an ensemble of deterministic ResNets with different initial weights to start training and dropout activated during inference, producing the most skillful and well-calibrated forecasts. The initial-weights ensemble + MC dropout benefited from generating multiple solutions that more thoroughly sampled the hypothesis space. The Bayesian ResNet ensemble was the only one that performed worse than the deterministic ResNet at longer lead times, likely due to the challenge of optimizing a larger number of parameters. To address this issue, the Bayesian-MOPED (MOdel Priors with Empirical Bayes using Deep neural network) ResNet ensemble was adopted, and it enhanced forecast skill by constraining the hypothesis search near the deterministic ResNet hypothesis. All Bayesian methods demonstrated well-calibrated uncertainty and effectively separated cases with large and small errors. In case studies, the initial-weights ensemble + MC dropout demonstrated better forecast skill than the Bayesian-MOPED ensemble and the deterministic ResNet on selected CI events in clear-sky regions. However, the initial-weights ensemble + MC dropout exhibited poorer generalization in clear-sky and anvil cloud regions without CI occurrence compared to the deterministic ResNet and Bayesian-MOPED ensemble.

Haipeng Jia, Xueshuang Xiang, Da Fan et al.

Deep neural networks have dramatically achieved great success on a variety of challenging tasks. However, most successful DNNs have an extremely complex structure, leading to extensive research on model compression.As a significant area of progress in model compression, traditional gradual pruning approaches involve an iterative prune-retrain procedure and may suffer from two critical issues: local importance judgment, where the pruned weights are merely unimportant in the current model; and an irretrievable pruning process, where the pruned weights have no chance to come back. Addressing these two issues, this paper proposes the Drop Pruning approach, which leverages stochastic optimization in the pruning process by introducing a drop strategy at each pruning step, namely, drop away, which stochastically deletes some unimportant weights, and drop back, which stochastically recovers some pruned weights. The suitable choice of drop probabilities decreases the model size during the pruning process and helps it flow to the target sparsity. Compared to the Bayesian approaches that stochastically train a compact model for pruning, we directly aim at stochastic gradual pruning. We provide a detailed analysis showing that the drop away and drop back approaches have individual contributions. Moreover, Drop Pruning can achieve competitive compression performance and accuracy on many benchmark tasks compared with state-of-the-art weights pruning and Bayesian training approaches.